Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.74
assuming max odds 2.33
assuming max odds 3.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casa Pia (Local): 26.87%; Santa Clara (Visit): 41.84%; Draw: 31.29%. For Casa Pia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.506%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.87%EV +0.506%E +0.135%K +0.185%G +0.001% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.88%EV -3.36%E -1.45%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.25%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 26.01%EV +0.237%E +0.064%K +0.087%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.64%EV -2.52%E -1.08%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.34%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -0.569%E -0.154%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -10.05%E -4.67%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.43%EV -1.91%E -0.524%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.94%EV -3.78%E -1.64%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.63%EV -4.57%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.26%E -0.905%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.26%E -0.905%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.26%E -0.905%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -3.26%E -0.905%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.87%EV -6.70%E -3.01%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 16:56 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -3.26%E -0.905%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.02%EV -7.12%E -3.21%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.06%EV -8.95%E -3.07%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.39%EV -3.79%E -1.06%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.74%EV -7.54%E -3.41%K -6.23%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.87%EV -4.25%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -6.70%E -3.01%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -6.70%E -3.01%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -6.70%E -3.01%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -6.70%E -3.01%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -6.70%E -3.01%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.94%EV -6.70%E -3.01%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -4.60%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.59%EV -7.12%E -3.21%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.40%EV -10.82%E -3.80%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -4.57%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -6.70%E -3.01%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.79%EV -6.70%E -3.01%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -7.69%E -2.61%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-18 16:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.94%E -1.70%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.96%EV -4.61%E -2.02%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.98%EV -8.63%E -2.96%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.96%EV -4.61%E -2.02%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.98%EV -8.63%E -2.96%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.97%EV -9.21%E -4.25%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.63%EV -9.88%E -3.43%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -7.29%E -2.11%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 41.97%EV -9.21%E -4.25%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.63%EV -9.88%E -3.43%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV +0.128%E +0.040%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV +0.128%E +0.040%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV +0.128%E +0.040%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -3.00%E -0.968%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -4.57%E -1.50%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -10.05%E -4.67%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -3.00%E -0.968%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-18 17:01 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -10.05%E -4.67%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -8.63%E -2.54%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.90%EV -10.05%E -4.67%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -10.82%E -3.80%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -1.44%E -0.456%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.46%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -1.44%E -0.456%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 16:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -9.97%E -2.98%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.54%EV -4.61%E -2.02%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -9.26%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -5.87%E -2.61%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-18 17:01 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.96%E -3.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.13%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-18 17:01 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -12.14%E -5.78%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV +0.128%E +0.040%K +0.058%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -11.32%E -3.43%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -12.14%E -5.78%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -13.95%E -5.07%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -12.66%E -3.90%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.83%EV -14.23%E -6.94%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.52%EV -1.44%E -0.456%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 0.6% | 2026-04-18 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 0.6% | 2026-04-18 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.77% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.07% | 0.6% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96% | 0.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.36% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.67% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.97% | 2.5% | 2026-04-18 17:01 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.25% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.69% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.06% | 2.9% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |