Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.81
assuming max odds 3.00
assuming max odds 3.09
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casa Pia (Local): 34.48%; Moreirense FC (Visit): 33.52%; Draw: 32.00%. For Moreirense FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.565%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.30%EV -3.45%E -1.23%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.01%EV +0.565%E +0.188%K +0.282%G +0.002% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 17:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.30%EV -3.45%E -1.23%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.01%EV +0.565%E +0.188%K +0.282%G +0.002% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 17:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.42%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 33.01%EV -1.78%E -0.608%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.57%EV -4.97%E -1.67%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-01 17:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.90%EV -4.14%E -1.49%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -3.46%E -1.20%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.40%EV -1.13%E -0.366%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-01 17:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.45%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.25%EV -2.41%E -0.790%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 17:38 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 17:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-01 17:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-01 17:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-01 17:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.28%EV -5.13%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.48%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.28%EV -5.13%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.48%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -3.45%E -1.23%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 17:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -8.62%E -3.25%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -9.31%E -3.54%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.36%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-01 17:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -6.55%E -2.42%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.27%EV -7.53%E -2.61%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-01 17:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-01 17:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.19%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.38%EV -8.17%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-01 17:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.43%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 33.81%EV -6.47%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.76%EV -4.97%E -1.67%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 17:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.37%EV -6.21%E -2.28%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.62%EV -6.81%E -2.45%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.01%EV -6.57%E -2.25%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.37%EV -6.21%E -2.28%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.62%EV -6.81%E -2.45%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.01%EV -6.57%E -2.25%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 17:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-01 17:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 17:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 17:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 17:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-01 17:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-01 17:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-01 17:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-01 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-01 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-01 17:15 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -10.35%E -3.98%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -10.35%E -3.98%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-01 17:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -8.62%E -3.25%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.11%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -10.41%E -3.72%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-01 17:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-01 17:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -9.66%E -3.69%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-01 17:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -10.35%E -3.98%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-01 17:51 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -8.62%E -3.25%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -10.41%E -3.72%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-01 17:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%EV -10.35%E -3.98%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-01 17:38 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -9.31%E -3.54%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -10.41%E -3.72%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-01 17:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.05%EV -9.31%E -3.54%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -16.20%E -6.48%K -10.80%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.19%EV -13.61%E -5.04%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-03-01 17:35 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59% | 0.6% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59% | 0.6% | 2026-03-01 17:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59% | 0.6% | 2026-03-01 17:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.28% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59% | 0.6% | 2026-03-01 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.33% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.95% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.73% | 1.9% | 2026-03-01 17:50 |