L’École des cotes

Casa Pia v Moreirense FC

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-01 18:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Casa Pia (Local)

Prévision 34.48%2.90cote équitable
EV -3.11%
Avantage -1.11%
Kelly -1.72%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.81

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
33.05%34.56%34.45%35.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.602.712.702.8138.46%36.92%37.04%35.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Moreirense FC (Visiteur)

Prévision 33.52%2.98cote équitable
EV +0.565%
Avantage +0.188%
Kelly +0.282%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 3.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.01%33.48%33.48%34.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.502.782.783.0040.00%35.97%35.97%33.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 32.00%3.13cote équitable
EV -1.13%
Avantage -0.366%
Kelly -0.541%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.09

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.71%31.96%32.07%33.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.702.912.903.0937.04%34.32%34.48%32.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
BetOnline.ag2.80I 35.71%NM 34.30%EV -3.45%E -1.23%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.01%EV +0.565%E +0.188%K +0.282%G +0.002%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-01 17:34
LowVig.ag2.80I 35.71%NM 34.30%EV -3.45%E -1.23%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.01%EV +0.565%E +0.188%K +0.282%G +0.002%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-01 17:34
Pinnacle2.81I 35.59%NM 34.42%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.01%EV -1.78%E -0.608%K -0.923%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.57%EV -4.97%E -1.67%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-01 17:50
1xBet2.78I 35.97%NM 34.90%EV -4.14%E -1.49%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.69%EV -3.46%E -1.20%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.40%EV -1.13%E -0.366%K -0.541%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-01 17:50
Betclic (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.45%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.25%EV -2.41%E -0.790%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-01 17:38
DraftKings2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 17:34
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-01 17:35
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-01 17:50
Tipico (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.55%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -4.46%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 17:49
Bovada2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.28%EV -5.13%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.48%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 17:54
BetUS2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.28%EV -5.13%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.48%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 17:54
Coolbet2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -3.45%E -1.23%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 17:54
Grosvenor2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 17:14
Svenska Spel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 17:14
Casumo2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 17:14
betPARX2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 17:14
ATG (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 17:14
Bally Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 17:14
Everygame2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 17:34
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -8.62%E -3.25%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-01 17:39
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.51%EV -9.31%E -3.54%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.36%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.13%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-01 17:50
Marathon Bet2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -6.55%E -2.42%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.27%EV -7.53%E -2.61%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-01 17:54
BetRivers2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 17:14
TABtouch2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 17:15
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.46%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 17:49
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.42%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.19%EV -6.14%E -2.19%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.38%EV -8.17%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-01 17:49
GTbets2.74I 36.50%NM 34.43%EV -5.52%E -2.01%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.81%EV -6.47%E -2.32%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.76%EV -4.97%E -1.67%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 17:55
NordicBet2.72I 36.76%NM 34.37%EV -6.21%E -2.28%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.62%EV -6.81%E -2.45%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.01%EV -6.57%E -2.25%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 17:40
Betsson2.72I 36.76%NM 34.37%EV -6.21%E -2.28%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.62%EV -6.81%E -2.45%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.01%EV -6.57%E -2.25%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 17:44
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 17:54
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 17:34
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 17:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 17:34
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 17:34
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 17:54
PointsBet (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 17:54
Unibet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 17:15
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 17:15
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 17:14
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 17:24
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 17:55
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 17:54
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 17:55
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.85%E -2.73%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-01 17:54
LiveScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-01 17:14
LeoVegas (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-01 17:15
Parions Sport (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -10.35%E -3.98%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-01 17:39
Winamax (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -10.35%E -3.98%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.45%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-01 17:39
PMU (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -8.62%E -3.25%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.11%EV -7.82%E -2.84%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.52%EV -10.41%E -3.72%K -5.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-01 17:49
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -5.18%E -1.88%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -5.61%E -1.90%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 17:54
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.90%E -2.56%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 17:35
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -9.66%E -3.69%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -4.01%E -1.34%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-01 17:34
Bet Victor2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -10.35%E -3.98%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -7.21%E -2.49%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-01 17:51
Virgin Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.15%EV -8.62%E -3.25%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.52%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.32%EV -10.41%E -3.72%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-01 17:15
NetBet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%EV -10.35%E -3.98%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%EV -8.81%E -3.09%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-01 17:38
LeoVegas2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -9.31%E -3.54%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.49%E -3.52%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -10.41%E -3.72%K -5.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-01 17:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 33.05%EV -9.31%E -3.54%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.76%EV -16.20%E -6.48%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.19%EV -13.61%E -5.04%K -8.01%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-01 17:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59%0.6%2026-03-01 17:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59%0.6%2026-03-01 17:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59%0.6%2026-03-01 17:55
Matchbook2.90I 34.48%NM 34.28%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59%0.6%2026-03-01 17:55
Smarkets2.86I 34.97%NM 34.33%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.95%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.73%1.9%2026-03-01 17:50