La escuela de los momios

Braga v Famalicão

Inicio: 2026-04-19 19:34 UTC

Final: Braga 2–2 Famalicão

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Braga (Local)

Predicción 49.39%2.02momio equitativo
EV -3.68%
Ventaja -1.89%
Kelly -3.87%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.65%49.46%49.16%51.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.771.881.901.9556.50%53.06%52.77%51.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Famalicão (Visitante)

Predicción 23.81%4.20momio equitativo
EV +0.486%
Ventaja +0.115%
Kelly +0.151%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.22

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.61%23.80%24.01%25.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.553.883.904.2228.17%25.76%25.64%23.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.79%3.73momio equitativo
EV -3.54%
Ventaja -0.984%
Kelly -1.36%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.86%26.74%26.83%28.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.463.503.6032.26%28.87%28.57%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.84I 54.35%NM 51.01%EV -9.11%E -4.95%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.24%EV +0.486%E +0.115%K +0.151%G +0.001%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.74%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 19:29
Coolbet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.77%EV -7.14%E -3.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV +0.010%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.51%EV -3.54%E -0.984%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-19 19:29
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 50.86%EV -9.61%E -5.25%K -11.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV +0.010%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -7.56%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 19:29
NetBet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 51.29%EV -12.57%E -7.10%K -16.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV +0.010%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -10.24%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 19:29
1xBet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.75%EV -3.68%E -1.89%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.15%EV -0.228%E -0.054%K -0.071%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.10%EV -4.08%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-19 19:29
GTbets1.90I 52.63%NM 49.46%EV -6.15%E -3.24%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.81%EV -1.89%E -0.460%K -0.607%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.72%EV -9.17%E -2.70%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-19 19:29
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -8.62%E -4.66%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 19:30
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -9.61%E -5.25%K -11.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -2.37%E -0.578%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -4.88%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 19:25
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-19 19:31
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -8.62%E -4.66%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -3.54%E -0.984%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:29
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -6.15%E -3.24%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 19:30
Bet Right1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.62%E -4.66%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 19:29
PointsBet (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.62%E -4.66%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 19:29
Svenska Spel1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 19:30
ATG (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.28%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.83%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 19:30
Bovada1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.56%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:28
BetUS1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -5.94%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.56%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:29
LowVig.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 48.87%EV -4.67%E -2.42%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:30
BetOnline.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 48.87%EV -4.67%E -2.42%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:30
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 19:30
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 19:30
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 19:31
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -6.15%E -3.24%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:29
Unibet (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -6.15%E -3.24%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:31
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -6.15%E -3.24%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -6.15%E -3.24%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:29
Casumo1.89I 52.91%NM 49.39%EV -6.64%E -3.52%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:30
Grosvenor1.89I 52.91%NM 49.39%EV -6.64%E -3.52%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:31
Bally Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.39%EV -6.64%E -3.52%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:30
betPARX1.89I 52.91%NM 49.39%EV -6.64%E -3.52%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:30
Marathon Bet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -6.15%E -3.24%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.56%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 19:29
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -7.14%E -3.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.13%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -7.14%E -3.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -8.32%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -7.56%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -7.14%E -3.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -8.32%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -7.56%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.18%EV -7.14%E -3.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -8.32%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.80%EV -7.56%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 19:30
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.32%EV -7.63%E -4.08%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.32%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -7.56%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 19:31
LeoVegas (SE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.32%EV -7.63%E -4.08%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -8.32%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -7.56%E -2.19%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 19:30
Sky Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -7.63%E -4.08%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 19:30
Bet Victor1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -9.61%E -5.25%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 19:29
Virgin Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.62%E -4.66%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 19:31
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.62%E -4.66%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -9.51%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.71%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 19:30
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -9.61%E -5.25%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -10.71%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 19:29
LeoVegas1.83I 54.64%NM 49.16%EV -9.61%E -5.25%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -10.71%E -2.85%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -10.24%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-19 19:30
NordicBet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -5.16%E -2.69%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.90%E -3.22%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.88%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 19:31
Betsson1.92I 52.08%NM 48.55%EV -5.16%E -2.69%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.90%E -3.22%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.88%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 19:31
PlayUp1.93I 51.81%NM 47.86%EV -4.67%E -2.42%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -11.90%E -3.22%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 19:30
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -7.14%E -3.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -13.09%E -3.59%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -4.88%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 19:30
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 19:29
William Hill1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 19:31
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 19:29
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.66%E -2.96%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.90%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 19:29
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 47.94%EV -7.63%E -4.08%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.58%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-19 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.65%EV -9.61%E -5.25%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.22%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.13%EV -16.94%E -5.46%K -8.07%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-19 19:30
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 48.65%EV -8.13%E -4.37%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -15.47%E -4.36%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -6.22%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-19 19:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.33%0.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-04-19 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-04-19 19:31
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-04-19 19:31
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 48.84%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.91%2.4%2026-04-19 19:31
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.26%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%3.1%2026-04-19 19:30