The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Braga v CF Estrela

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Braga (Local)

Prediction 56.53%1.77fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%56.51%56.56%57.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.651.651.7364.94%60.49%60.61%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CF Estrela (Visit)

Prediction 20.13%4.97fair odd
EV +5.69%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.20%20.14%20.11%23.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.524.505.2526.67%22.15%22.22%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.34%4.28fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.358%
Kelly -0.469%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.12%23.35%23.33%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.923.954.2230.30%25.50%25.32%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Braga (Local): 56.53%; CF Estrela (Visit): 20.13%; Draw: 23.34%. For CF Estrela (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.97. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV +5.69%E +1.08%K +1.34%G +0.076%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-12 08:00
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -3.37%E -0.702%K -0.887%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-12 09:02
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -4.46%E -2.64%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -4.38%E -0.921%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-11 23:59
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.33%EV -6.16%E -3.71%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -4.38%E -0.921%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-12 09:04
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -4.38%E -0.921%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -11.31%E -2.98%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-12 09:04
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -8.99%E -5.58%K -14.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -4.38%E -0.921%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-12 08:44
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.54%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -5.38%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -7.81%E -1.98%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-12 07:44
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.54%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -5.38%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -7.81%E -1.98%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-12 07:43
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.37%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.38%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-12 09:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.30%EV -8.99%E -5.58%K -14.73%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -5.38%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-12 09:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.30%EV -8.99%E -5.58%K -14.73%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -5.38%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.07%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-12 09:09
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.16%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.11%EV -5.58%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.73%EV -3.14%E -0.758%K -0.998%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-12 07:52
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.95%EV -6.39%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 22.79%EV -5.01%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 21:35
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.07%EV -2.20%E -1.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.95%EV -6.79%E -1.47%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.98%EV -1.51%E -0.358%K -0.469%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-11 21:09
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -7.40%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -10.15%E -2.64%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-12 09:05
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.30%EV -5.59%E -3.35%K -8.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -7.40%E -1.61%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -12.48%E -3.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-12 09:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.41%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 21:34
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -9.41%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 21:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.41%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -4.31%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 23:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -6.73%E -4.08%K -10.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -9.41%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 21:34
Everygame🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -9.41%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-12 07:43
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -9.41%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -11.31%E -2.98%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-11 22:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.11%EV -10.68%E -6.76%K -18.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -9.41%E -2.09%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.84%EV -7.81%E -1.98%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-12 08:44
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.35%EV -4.46%E -2.64%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -11.42%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 21:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -11.42%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 21:34
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.88%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -11.42%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 21:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.40%EV -7.86%E -4.82%K -12.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -11.42%E -2.60%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.70%EV -5.48%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 21:34
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.69%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -12.83%E -2.96%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 21:34
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.69%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -12.83%E -2.96%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 21:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.69%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -12.83%E -2.96%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 21:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.69%EV -3.90%E -2.29%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -12.83%E -2.96%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 21:34
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -12.83%E -2.96%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -15.98%E -4.44%K -6.15%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-12 09:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.62%EV -8.42%E -5.20%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.06%EV -12.83%E -2.96%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.32%EV -22.98%E -6.96%K -9.99%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-12 09:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.54%EV -9.55%E -5.97%K -15.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.67%EV -17.46%E -4.26%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.79%EV -8.98%E -2.30%K -3.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-11 21:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 55.04%EV -12.94%E -8.40%K -23.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.73%EV -21.49%E -5.51%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.22%EV -14.81%E -4.06%K -5.59%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-11 21:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.28%EV -7.86%E -4.82%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -24.51%E -6.54%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -6.65%E -1.66%K -2.22%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-11 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.16I 86.21%NM 48.60%1.55I 64.52%NM 36.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 15.03%77.4%2026-05-12 06:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 29.09%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.95%1.09I 91.74%NM 34.96%162.4%2026-05-12 07:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 29.09%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.95%1.09I 91.74%NM 34.96%162.4%2026-05-12 07:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 28.31%1.06I 94.34%NM 34.98%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.71%169.7%2026-05-12 07:44