L’École des cotes

Benfica v AVS Futebol SAD

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-21 18:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

54 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Benfica (Local)

Prévision 85.77%1.17cote équitable
EV -3.94%
Avantage -3.51%
Kelly -32.80%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.12

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
83.50%85.84%85.58%88.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.061.091.091.1294.34%91.67%91.74%89.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

AVS Futebol SAD (Visiteur)

Prévision 4.37%22.86cote équitable
EV +18.62%
Avantage +0.687%
Kelly +0.713%
Croissance +0.133%

avec la cote maximale 27.12

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
3.55%4.43%4.43%6.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
15.0021.2421.0027.126.67%4.71%4.76%3.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 9.85%10.15cote équitable
EV +18.25%
Avantage +1.52%
Kelly +1.66%
Croissance +0.303%

avec la cote maximale 12.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
7.79%9.74%9.99%11.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
8.009.409.0012.0012.50%10.64%11.11%8.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (54 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Tipico (DE)1.06I 94.34%NM 88.15%EV -9.08%E -8.57%K -151.37%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +18.25%E +1.52%K +1.66%G +0.303%7.0%2026-02-21 17:15
Pinnacle1.09I 91.74%NM 88.24%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%27.12I 3.69%NM 3.55%EV +18.62%E +0.687%K +0.713%G +0.133%11.71I 8.54%NM 8.21%EV +15.40%E +1.31%K +1.44%G +0.221%4.0%2026-02-21 17:40
BetOnline.ag1.10I 90.91%NM 87.12%EV -5.65%E -5.14%K -56.51%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +8.40%E +0.763%K +0.840%G +0.071%4.3%2026-02-21 17:10
LowVig.ag1.10I 90.91%NM 87.12%EV -5.65%E -5.14%K -56.51%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +8.40%E +0.763%K +0.840%G +0.071%4.3%2026-02-21 17:10
Fanatics1.10I 90.91%NM 86.78%EV -5.65%E -5.14%K -56.51%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.68%EV +8.40%E +0.763%K +0.840%G +0.071%4.8%2026-02-21 17:55
Sky Bet1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +8.40%E +0.763%K +0.840%G +0.071%6.4%2026-02-21 17:20
DraftKings1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.98%EV +3.47%E +0.331%K +0.365%G +0.013%6.0%2026-02-21 17:55
Marathon Bet1.07I 93.46%NM 87.03%EV -8.22%E -7.69%K -117.49%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.88%EV +4.97%E +0.207%K +0.216%G +0.011%10.25I 9.76%NM 9.09%EV +1.01%E +0.098%K +0.109%G +0.001%7.4%2026-02-21 17:55
Coolbet1.10I 90.91%NM 86.66%EV -5.65%E -5.14%K -56.51%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.81%EV +9.35%E +0.374%K +0.390%G +0.036%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.53%EV -1.46%E -0.146%K -0.162%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 17:19
Bovada1.09I 91.74%NM 85.95%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -12.52%E -0.626%K -0.659%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -1.46%E -0.146%K -0.162%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 17:55
BetUS1.09I 91.74%NM 85.95%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -12.52%E -0.626%K -0.659%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -1.46%E -0.146%K -0.162%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 17:54
Everygame1.08I 92.59%NM 86.58%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.07%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -1.46%E -0.146%K -0.162%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 17:14
Betsson1.08I 92.59%NM 86.70%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV +9.35%E +0.374%K +0.390%G +0.036%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.55%EV -3.43%E -0.350%K -0.389%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 17:55
NordicBet1.08I 92.59%NM 86.70%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV +9.35%E +0.374%K +0.390%G +0.036%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.55%EV -3.43%E -0.350%K -0.389%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 17:55
Coral1.12I 89.29%NM 84.97%EV -3.94%E -3.51%K -32.80%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.01%EV -16.90%E -0.889%K -0.939%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.02%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 17:55
888sport1.11I 90.09%NM 85.49%EV -4.79%E -4.32%K -43.58%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:55
William Hill1.11I 90.09%NM 85.49%EV -4.79%E -4.32%K -43.58%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:55
888sport (SE)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.49%EV -4.79%E -4.32%K -43.58%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:55
Mr Green (SE)1.11I 90.09%NM 85.49%EV -4.79%E -4.32%K -43.58%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.52%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-21 17:55
Svenska Spel1.10I 90.91%NM 85.94%EV -5.65%E -5.14%K -56.51%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-20 05:40
ATG (SE)1.10I 90.91%NM 85.94%EV -5.65%E -5.14%K -56.51%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.11%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-20 05:39
BoyleSports1.10I 90.91%NM 85.60%EV -5.65%E -5.14%K -56.51%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.48%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.91%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 17:55
SportsBet1.08I 92.59%NM 85.83%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 17:20
Paddy Power1.08I 92.59%NM 85.83%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.41%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -6.38%E -0.672%K -0.751%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 17:20
BetMGM1.12I 89.29%NM 84.63%EV -3.94%E -3.51%K -32.80%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.12%EV -19.08%E -1.03%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.25%EV -8.85%E -0.956%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-21 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.12I 89.29%NM 84.50%EV -3.94%E -3.51%K -32.80%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.98%EV -16.90%E -0.889%K -0.939%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 17:55
Grosvenor1.09I 91.74%NM 85.58%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-20 05:40
TABtouch1.09I 91.74%NM 85.58%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-20 05:40
BetRivers1.09I 91.74%NM 85.58%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-20 05:40
Casumo1.09I 91.74%NM 85.58%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-20 05:40
Betr (AU)1.09I 91.74%NM 85.58%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 17:45
betPARX1.09I 91.74%NM 85.58%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-20 05:40
Bally Bet1.09I 91.74%NM 85.58%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.06%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-20 05:40
Bet Right1.09I 91.74%NM 85.25%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-21 17:45
FanDuel1.09I 91.74%NM 85.25%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-21 17:20
PointsBet (AU)1.09I 91.74%NM 85.25%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-21 17:45
Unibet1.08I 92.59%NM 85.69%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-20 05:40
Unibet (NL)1.08I 92.59%NM 85.69%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-20 05:40
Unibet (SE)1.08I 92.59%NM 85.69%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV +0.600%E +0.026%K +0.027%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-20 05:40
LeoVegas1.08I 92.59%NM 85.37%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-20 05:39
LiveScore Bet1.08I 92.59%NM 85.37%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-20 05:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.08I 92.59%NM 85.37%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-20 05:39
Winamax (DE)1.09I 91.74%NM 83.77%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -34.39%E -2.29%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 17:55
Winamax (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 83.77%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -34.39%E -2.29%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -11.31%E -1.26%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 17:55
NetBet (FR)1.06I 94.34%NM 85.17%EV -9.08%E -8.57%K -151.37%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -12.52%E -0.626%K -0.659%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.32%EV -13.77%E -1.57%K -1.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-21 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -3.94%E -3.51%K -32.80%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -25.64%E -1.51%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -16.24%E -1.91%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 17:55
Neds1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -3.94%E -3.51%K -32.80%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -25.64%E -1.51%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -16.24%E -1.91%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 17:55
Unibet (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.62%EV -5.65%E -5.14%K -56.51%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -16.24%E -1.91%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 17:55
Betway1.10I 90.91%NM 84.22%EV -5.65%E -5.14%K -56.51%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -16.90%E -0.889%K -0.939%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -16.24%E -1.91%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 17:55
Virgin Bet1.07I 93.46%NM 84.97%EV -8.22%E -7.69%K -117.49%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -16.24%E -1.91%K -2.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-20 05:39
PMU (FR)1.06I 94.34%NM 84.24%EV -9.08%E -8.57%K -151.37%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.25%EV -25.64%E -1.51%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -16.24%E -1.91%K -2.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-21 17:20
Parions Sport (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 84.24%EV -6.51%E -5.97%K -72.32%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV -16.90%E -0.889%K -0.939%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.93%EV -17.22%E -2.05%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-21 17:55
Betclic (FR)1.08I 92.59%NM 84.08%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 4.91%EV -19.08%E -1.03%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.01%EV -18.70%E -2.27%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 84.29%EV -7.37%E -6.82%K -92.08%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.33%EV -8.15%E -0.388%K -0.407%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -21.16%E -2.65%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-21 17:32
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.12I 89.29%NM 88.92%32.00I 3.13%NM 3.11%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.97%0.4%2026-02-21 17:55
Matchbook1.11I 90.09%NM 89.17%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.92%1.0%2026-02-21 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 89.01%32.00I 3.13%NM 3.09%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%1.2%2026-02-21 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.11I 90.09%NM 89.01%32.00I 3.13%NM 3.09%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.90%1.2%2026-02-21 17:55
Smarkets1.10I 90.91%NM 88.81%32.05I 3.12%NM 3.05%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.14%2.4%2026-02-21 17:55