Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arouca v Santa Clara

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 17:00 UTC

Final: Arouca 1–2 Santa Clara

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arouca (Local)

Prediction 36.47%2.74fair odd
EV +0.282%
Edge +0.103%
Kelly +0.161%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%36.53%36.40%38.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.532.502.7542.55%39.50%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santa Clara (Visit)

Prediction 32.75%3.05fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.916%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.68%32.74%32.75%34.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.802.802.9738.02%35.73%35.71%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.78%3.25fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.471%
Kelly -0.684%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.22%30.73%30.85%32.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.053.053.2034.48%32.74%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arouca (Local): 36.47%; Santa Clara (Visit): 32.75%; Draw: 30.78%. For Arouca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.282%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.282%E +0.103%K +0.161%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -5.01%E -1.73%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.35%EV -3.00%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.56%EV -2.72%E -0.916%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.09%EV -4.28%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-13 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.77%EV -3.00%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.04%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.77%EV -3.00%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.04%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 16:36
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 16:20
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -5.01%E -1.73%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 14:50
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 06:35
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:50
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 09:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:20
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:20
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 14:50
Bovada🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.20%EV -5.55%E -2.14%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 16:55
BetUS🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.20%EV -5.55%E -2.14%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.17%EV -5.92%E -2.29%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.42%EV -8.59%E -2.89%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 16:45
GTbets🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.90%EV -6.65%E -2.60%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -6.32%E -2.21%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.08%EV -3.35%E -1.07%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 05:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 06:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -3.37%E -1.14%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 09:35
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 12:15
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.71%EV -8.10%E -3.22%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 16:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.70%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -6.00%E -2.09%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -1.51%E -0.471%K -0.684%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 05:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.01%E -1.73%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.51%E -0.471%K -0.684%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 05:40
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.51%E -0.471%K -0.684%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 05:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.51%E -0.471%K -0.684%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 05:40
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:55
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 14:50
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 05:40
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 16:55
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:55
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:55
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 10:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 16:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 14:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 14:55
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 16:20
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 14:55
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 16:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.11%EV -9.56%E -3.86%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.05%EV -13.86%E -5.27%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 16:21
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -10.66%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -11.56%E -4.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 06:41
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.64%EV -10.66%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.41%EV -9.27%E -3.35%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 10:01
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.48%E -5.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 16:55
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.48%E -5.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 16:57
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.48%E -5.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 16:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -12.48%E -5.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -11.56%E -4.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.41%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-13 06:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.00%EV -14.30%E -6.09%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.24%EV -9.27%E -3.35%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 16:33
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -14.30%E -6.09%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 16:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.84%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.5%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.84%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.5%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.84%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.5%2026-09-13 16:55
Matchbook◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.46%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.28%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.26%1.6%2026-09-13 16:55
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39%2.1%2026-09-13 16:30