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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Arouca v Santa Clara

Inicio: 2026-09-13 17:00 UTC

Final: Arouca 1–2 Santa Clara

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arouca (Local)

Predicción 36.47%2.74momio equitativo
EV +0.282%
Ventaja +0.103%
Kelly +0.161%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.52%36.53%36.40%38.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.532.502.7542.55%39.50%40.00%36.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Santa Clara (Visitante)

Predicción 32.75%3.05momio equitativo
EV -2.72%
Ventaja -0.916%
Kelly -1.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.68%32.74%32.75%34.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.632.802.802.9738.02%35.73%35.71%33.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.78%3.25momio equitativo
EV -1.51%
Ventaja -0.471%
Kelly -0.684%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.22%30.73%30.85%32.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.053.053.2034.48%32.74%32.79%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Arouca (Local): 36.47%; Santa Clara (Visitante): 32.75%; Empate: 30.78%. Para Arouca (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.74. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.282%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.282%E +0.103%K +0.161%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -5.01%E -1.73%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.74%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.35%EV -3.00%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.56%EV -2.72%E -0.916%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.09%EV -4.28%E -1.37%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-13 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.77%EV -3.00%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.04%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.77%EV -3.00%E -1.13%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.04%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 16:36
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 16:20
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -5.01%E -1.73%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 14:50
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 06:35
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 14:50
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 09:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:20
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:20
Bally Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 16:21
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.19%E -2.00%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 14:50
Bovada🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.20%EV -5.55%E -2.14%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 16:55
BetUS🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.20%EV -5.55%E -2.14%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.17%EV -5.92%E -2.29%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -5.67%E -1.97%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.42%EV -8.59%E -2.89%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 16:45
GTbets🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.90%EV -6.65%E -2.60%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -6.32%E -2.21%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.08%EV -3.35%E -1.07%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 05:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 06:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -3.37%E -1.14%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -9.20%E -3.12%K -4.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 09:35
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 12:15
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.71%EV -8.10%E -3.22%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 16:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.70%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -6.00%E -2.09%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -1.51%E -0.471%K -0.684%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 05:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -5.01%E -1.73%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -3.04%E -0.967%K -1.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.51%E -0.471%K -0.684%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 05:40
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.51%E -0.471%K -0.684%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 05:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.51%E -0.471%K -0.684%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 05:40
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:55
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 14:50
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 05:40
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 16:55
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:55
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:55
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 10:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 16:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 14:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 14:55
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 16:20
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 14:55
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -13.20%E -4.98%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 16:21
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.11%EV -9.56%E -3.86%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.05%EV -13.86%E -5.27%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 16:21
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -10.66%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -11.56%E -4.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 06:41
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.64%EV -10.66%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.41%EV -9.27%E -3.35%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -10.74%E -3.70%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 10:01
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.48%E -5.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 16:55
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.48%E -5.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 16:57
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.48%E -5.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -4.58%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 16:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.37%EV -12.48%E -5.20%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -11.56%E -4.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.41%EV -6.12%E -2.01%K -2.99%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-13 06:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.00%EV -14.30%E -6.09%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.24%EV -9.27%E -3.35%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 16:33
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -14.30%E -6.09%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -7.66%E -2.55%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 16:36
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.84%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.5%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.84%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.5%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.84%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08%0.5%2026-09-13 16:55
Matchbook◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.46%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.28%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.26%1.6%2026-09-13 16:55
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39%2.1%2026-09-13 16:30