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Arouca v Moreirense FC

2026-08-16 17:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arouca (Local)

Prediction 41.63%2.40fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.76%41.67%41.62%42.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.212.252.3048.78%45.18%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moreirense FC (Visit)

Prediction 29.02%3.45fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.93%28.99%29.01%30.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.153.153.3333.90%31.75%31.75%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -0.954%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.59%29.35%29.37%30.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.163.203.3033.90%31.65%31.25%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arouca (Local): 41.63%; Moreirense FC (Visit): 29.02%; Draw: 29.35%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.41. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.30, with an expected value of -3.15%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.25%E -1.85%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -7.14%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.15%E -0.954%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-09 19:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.20%EV -4.25%E -1.85%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -8.59%E -2.73%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -3.15%E -0.954%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 19:54
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.61%EV -4.66%E -2.04%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.61%EV -3.36%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-09 20:55
GTbets🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.57%EV -5.50%E -2.42%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.85%EV -5.11%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.58%EV -6.38%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-10 00:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.14%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.15%E -0.954%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 19:55
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.14%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.15%E -0.954%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 20:20
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.59%E -2.73%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.24%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 22:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -5.69%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 20:15
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 19:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.61%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 19:50
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 19:49
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.33%E -2.81%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -12.94%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 19:55
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -7.58%E -3.41%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.14%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 23:20
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -7.58%E -3.41%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.14%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.08%E -1.90%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 23:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.22%EV -8.00%E -3.62%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -5.98%E -1.84%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.98%EV -5.50%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 20:15
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -9.46%E -3.03%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -8.43%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 20:11
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -9.46%E -3.03%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -8.43%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 20:13
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.41%E -3.82%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-10 02:20
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.49%E -4.88%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.94%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 19:50
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.49%E -4.88%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 42.61%EV -11.33%E -5.32%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -5.69%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.47%EV -9.60%E -3.12%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 20:13
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -12.57%E -5.99%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -10.04%E -3.24%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -13.42%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-09 20:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -12.57%E -5.99%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -12.94%E -4.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -11.95%E -3.98%K -5.98%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-09 20:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.84%EV -14.66%E -7.15%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.08%EV -14.39%E -4.88%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.08%EV -13.42%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%16.6%2026-08-09 20:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.47%5.0%2026-08-10 00:20
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 41.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%2.94I 34.01%NM 29.96%13.5%2026-08-09 20:15