Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.91
assuming max odds 4.77
assuming max odds 3.60
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arouca (Local): 51.88%; Moreirense FC (Visit): 21.02%; Draw: 27.10%. For Moreirense FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.260%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.44%EV -4.54%E -2.46%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 20.23%EV +0.260%E +0.054%K +0.069%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.33%EV -4.34%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.99%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -0.161%E -0.034%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -8.17%E -4.61%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.61%EV -6.09%E -3.37%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.64%EV -8.41%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -2.45%E -0.680%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -4.02%E -2.17%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.38%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-16 16:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.38%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.58%EV -10.24%E -5.92%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.45%EV -10.24%E -5.92%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.86%EV -8.57%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -8.99%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -8.99%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -2.45%E -0.680%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -8.99%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-16 16:53 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.91%EV -10.24%E -5.92%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.88%EV -9.62%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-16 16:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.69%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 21.78%EV -10.46%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 27.53%EV -8.68%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.13%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -10.67%E -2.51%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -10.67%E -2.51%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.93%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -10.67%E -2.51%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -11.72%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -11.72%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 16:53 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -11.72%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -8.69%E -4.94%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.65%EV -9.72%E -5.59%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-16 16:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -20.13%E -5.30%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-16 15:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -4.02%E -2.17%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -4.02%E -2.17%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -23.28%E -6.38%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -23.28%E -6.38%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-16 16:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -23.28%E -6.38%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-16 16:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.88% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.81% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43% | 1.3% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.42% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.42% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17% | 2.9% | 2026-08-16 16:55 |