Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Arouca v Moreirense FC

Início: 2026-08-16 17:00 UTC

Final: Arouca 4–0 Moreirense FC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Arouca (Local)

Previsão 51.88%1.93odd justa
EV -0.903%
Vantagem -0.473%
Kelly -0.993%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.91

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
48.84%51.79%51.87%53.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.731.811.821.9157.80%55.13%54.95%52.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Moreirense FC (Visitante)

Previsão 21.02%4.76odd justa
EV +0.260%
Vantagem +0.054%
Kelly +0.069%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.77

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.03%21.12%20.93%24.49%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.654.234.354.7727.40%23.62%22.99%20.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.10%3.69odd justa
EV -2.45%
Vantagem -0.680%
Kelly -0.941%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.72%27.09%27.19%27.98%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.423.403.6030.30%29.22%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Arouca (Local): 51.88%; Moreirense FC (Visitante): 21.02%; Empate: 27.10%. Para Moreirense FC (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.76. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.77, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.260%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.44%EV -4.54%E -2.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 20.23%EV +0.260%E +0.054%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.33%EV -4.34%E -1.23%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-16 16:55
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.99%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -0.161%E -0.034%K -0.043%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 16:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:50
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.00%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 16:49
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 16:54
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -8.17%E -4.61%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -3.31%E -0.720%K -0.920%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 16:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.61%EV -6.09%E -3.37%K -7.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.64%EV -8.41%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -2.45%E -0.680%K -0.941%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 16:54
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 16:54
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 16:49
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -5.42%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 16:54
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -4.02%E -2.17%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-16 16:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 16:50
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 16:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-16 16:49
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.38%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 16:45
Neds🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 16:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.52%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 16:49
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.38%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.02%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-16 16:54
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 16:54
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 16:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 16:54
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.58%EV -10.24%E -5.92%K -14.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-16 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -7.52%E -1.71%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.45%EV -10.24%E -5.92%K -14.03%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.86%EV -8.57%E -1.97%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 16:54
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -8.99%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 16:49
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -8.99%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -2.45%E -0.680%K -0.941%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 16:54
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -8.99%E -2.08%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-16 16:53
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.91%EV -10.24%E -5.92%K -14.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.88%EV -9.62%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -10.58%E -3.20%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 16:44
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.69%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 21.78%EV -10.46%E -2.46%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.53%EV -8.68%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 16:49
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.13%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -10.67%E -2.51%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-16 16:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -10.67%E -2.51%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-16 16:49
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.93%EV -5.57%E -3.06%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -10.67%E -2.51%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 16:55
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -11.72%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 16:49
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.61%E -3.67%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -11.72%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 16:53
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.20%E -5.26%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -11.72%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 16:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -8.69%E -4.94%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -6.51%E -1.89%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 16:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.65%EV -9.72%E -5.59%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -13.82%E -3.37%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 16:54
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 16:49
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 16:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 16:49
Bally Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 16:50
betPARX🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.98%EV -0.903%E -0.473%K -0.993%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%EV -19.08%E -4.96%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -5.16%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -20.13%E -5.30%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 15:54
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -4.02%E -2.17%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-16 16:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -4.02%E -2.17%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-16 16:50
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-16 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-16 16:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -22.23%E -6.01%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -7.87%E -2.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-16 16:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -23.28%E -6.38%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 16:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -23.28%E -6.38%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 16:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.84%EV -5.05%E -2.76%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -23.28%E -6.38%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -9.22%E -2.75%K -3.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 16:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.88%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24%0.6%2026-08-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-08-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-08-16 16:55
Matchbook◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-08-16 16:55
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.75%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43%1.3%2026-08-16 16:55
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.42%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.42%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%2.9%2026-08-16 16:55