默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Arouca v Moreirense FC

2026-08-16 17:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

胜负盘

26 家博彩公司 (13 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率:四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Arouca (主队)

预测 41.67%2.40公平赔率
EV -4.17%
优势 -1.81%
Kelly -3.21%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.30

博彩公司预测分布
40.76%41.69%41.67%42.61%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.052.212.242.3048.78%45.23%44.74%43.48%最小值均值中位数最大值

Moreirense FC (客队)

预测 28.96%3.45公平赔率
EV -3.56%
优势 -1.07%
Kelly -1.53%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.33

博彩公司预测分布
27.93%28.95%28.90%30.57%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.953.153.153.3333.90%31.75%31.75%30.03%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 29.37%3.40公平赔率
EV -3.07%
优势 -0.930%
Kelly -1.33%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.30

博彩公司预测分布
28.59%29.36%29.43%30.15%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.953.153.203.3033.90%31.70%31.30%30.30%最小值均值中位数最大值

对于胜负盘,四分位数间均值 (精选名单)估计各选项的概率为:Arouca (主队):41.67%;Moreirense FC (客队):28.96%;平局:29.37%。 对于“平局”,该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.40。 没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的赔率:当前最佳赔率为3.30,期望值为-3.07%,未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (26 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联,也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.17%E -1.81%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.07%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-09 19:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.20%EV -4.17%E -1.81%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -8.77%E -2.79%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -3.07%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 19:54
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.61%EV -4.58%E -2.00%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.61%EV -3.56%E -1.07%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.78%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-09 20:55
GTbets🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.57%EV -5.42%E -2.39%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.85%EV -5.30%E -1.62%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.58%EV -6.30%E -1.97%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-10 00:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.07%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 19:55
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.07%E -0.930%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-09 20:20
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.77%E -2.79%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.54%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.43%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 22:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 20:15
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.22%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.54%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 19:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.22%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.54%E -1.40%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 19:50
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -10.22%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-09 19:49
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -6.25%E -2.78%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -13.12%E -4.37%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-09 19:55
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -7.50%E -3.38%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 23:20
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -7.50%E -3.38%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.33%E -2.29%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.01%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 23:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.22%EV -7.92%E -3.58%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -6.17%E -1.90%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.98%EV -5.42%E -1.68%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 20:15
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.33%E -3.79%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -9.64%E -3.09%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -8.35%E -2.68%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 20:11
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.33%E -3.79%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -9.64%E -3.09%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.26%EV -8.35%E -2.68%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 20:13
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.33%E -3.79%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.22%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-10 02:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.42%E -4.85%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -8.77%E -2.79%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -10.41%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-10 03:00
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.42%E -4.85%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -13.12%E -4.37%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 19:50
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -10.42%E -4.85%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.22%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-09 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 42.61%EV -11.25%E -5.28%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -5.88%E -1.81%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.47%EV -9.53%E -3.09%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 20:13
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -12.50%E -5.95%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -10.22%E -3.30%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.79%EV -13.35%E -4.52%K -6.85%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-09 20:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -12.50%E -5.95%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -13.12%E -4.37%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-09 20:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.84%EV -14.58%E -7.11%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.08%EV -14.57%E -4.94%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.08%EV -13.35%E -4.52%K -6.85%G +0.000%16.6%2026-08-09 20:15
利润率 = 利润率(超额概率) · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间,因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变,并不代表数据已经失效。通常,约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除;只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时,才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (2)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.47%5.0%2026-08-10 03:15
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 41.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%2.94I 34.01%NM 29.96%13.5%2026-08-09 20:15