Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca v Rio Ave FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 17:03 UTC

Final: Alverca 1–0 Rio Ave FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca (Local)

Prediction 52.67%1.90fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -4.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.91%52.68%52.58%54.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.771.771.8359.88%56.46%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rio Ave FC (Visit)

Prediction 21.36%4.68fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.304%
Kelly +0.385%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.79%21.36%21.44%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.284.254.7525.00%23.38%23.53%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.98%3.85fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -0.691%
Kelly -0.943%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.16%25.96%25.98%26.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.563.603.7529.41%28.12%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 52.67%; Rio Ave FC (Visit): 21.36%; Draw: 25.98%. For Rio Ave FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.68. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.64%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV +1.44%E +0.304%K +0.385%G +0.006%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 16:59
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.38%EV -9.94%E -5.81%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV +0.376%E +0.080%K +0.102%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.34%EV -4.67%E -2.58%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.63%EV -0.051%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.03%EV -3.63%E -0.979%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-19 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -9.41%E -5.47%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -1.76%E -0.383%K -0.489%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 16:30
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.32%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -1.76%E -0.383%K -0.489%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-19 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.52%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.47%EV -2.83%E -0.621%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.01%EV -7.01%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -5.72%E -3.20%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -5.72%E -3.20%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 16:59
BetUS🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -5.72%E -3.20%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 16:59
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 16:48
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.00%EV -8.88%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 16:59
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -8.88%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 16:59
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.61%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -6.03%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.25%E -3.51%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -7.10%E -1.63%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 16:59
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.62%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 16:10
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:59
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.88%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 16:49
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.88%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 16:48
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 16:59
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -3.62%E -1.98%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.90%EV -7.95%E -1.85%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.52%EV -7.53%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 16:14
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.26%EV -3.62%E -1.98%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -8.17%E -1.90%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.50%EV -2.59%E -0.691%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-19 16:15
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -8.17%E -1.90%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 16:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:50
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:50
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -6.25%E -3.51%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 16:45
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -6.25%E -3.51%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 16:44
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -3.62%E -1.98%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 16:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.94%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 16:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:14
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:14
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -10.46%E -6.16%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 16:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.41%EV -9.41%E -5.47%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.98%EV -11.52%E -6.86%K -16.94%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.45%EV -11.37%E -2.74%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.58%EV -9.61%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-19 16:33
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 16:15
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 16:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -7.30%E -4.15%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -7.30%E -4.15%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.51%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.07%EV -12.04%E -7.21%K -17.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-19 16:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 16:14
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-19 16:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.13%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.94%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-19 16:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-19 16:54
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-19 16:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.37%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-19 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.53%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.91%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-09-19 16:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.09%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-09-19 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.09%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-09-19 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.58%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.66%1.2%2026-09-19 17:00
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.23%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.63%1.3%2026-09-19 17:00
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.61%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48%1.9%2026-09-19 17:00