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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Alverca v Rio Ave FC

Inicio: 2026-09-19 17:03 UTC

Final: Alverca 1–0 Rio Ave FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Alverca (Local)

Predicción 52.67%1.90momio equitativo
EV -3.62%
Ventaja -1.98%
Kelly -4.36%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.91%52.68%52.58%54.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.671.771.771.8359.88%56.46%56.50%54.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Rio Ave FC (Visitante)

Predicción 21.36%4.68momio equitativo
EV +1.44%
Ventaja +0.304%
Kelly +0.385%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.79%21.36%21.44%23.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.284.254.7525.00%23.38%23.53%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.98%3.85momio equitativo
EV -2.59%
Ventaja -0.691%
Kelly -0.943%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.16%25.96%25.98%26.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.563.603.7529.41%28.12%27.78%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Alverca (Local): 52.67%; Rio Ave FC (Visitante): 21.36%; Empate: 25.98%. Para Rio Ave FC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.68. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.44%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.64%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV +1.44%E +0.304%K +0.385%G +0.006%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 16:59
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.38%EV -9.94%E -5.81%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV +0.376%E +0.080%K +0.102%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.34%EV -4.67%E -2.58%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.63%EV -0.051%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.03%EV -3.63%E -0.979%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-19 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -9.41%E -5.47%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -1.76%E -0.383%K -0.489%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 16:30
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.32%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -1.76%E -0.383%K -0.489%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-19 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.52%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.47%EV -2.83%E -0.621%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.01%EV -7.01%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 16:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -5.72%E -3.20%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -5.72%E -3.20%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 16:59
BetUS🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -5.72%E -3.20%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.24%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 16:59
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 16:48
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.00%EV -8.88%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 16:59
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -8.88%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -3.90%E -0.866%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-19 16:59
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.61%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -6.03%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV -6.25%E -3.51%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -7.10%E -1.63%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-19 16:59
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.62%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.51%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 16:10
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:59
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.88%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 16:49
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.88%E -5.14%K -12.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 16:48
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -7.53%E -1.74%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 16:59
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -3.62%E -1.98%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.90%EV -7.95%E -1.85%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.52%EV -7.53%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 16:14
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.26%EV -3.62%E -1.98%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -8.17%E -1.90%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.50%EV -2.59%E -0.691%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-19 16:15
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%EV -6.78%E -3.83%K -8.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -8.17%E -1.90%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 16:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:50
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:50
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -6.25%E -3.51%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 16:45
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -6.25%E -3.51%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -9.23%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.67%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 16:44
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.81%EV -3.62%E -1.98%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.57%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-19 16:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.94%EV -4.14%E -2.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 16:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:14
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -3.89%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-19 16:14
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -10.46%E -6.16%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-19 16:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.41%EV -9.41%E -5.47%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -10.30%E -2.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.13%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.98%EV -11.52%E -6.86%K -16.94%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.45%EV -11.37%E -2.74%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.58%EV -9.61%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-19 16:33
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 16:15
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 16:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -7.30%E -4.15%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.56%EV -7.30%E -4.15%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -10.38%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 16:50
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.51%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.07%EV -12.04%E -7.21%K -17.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -12.44%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-19 16:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 16:14
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -5.20%E -2.89%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-19 16:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.13%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -6.49%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.94%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -7.79%E -2.19%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-19 16:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-19 16:54
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.22%EV -7.83%E -4.47%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-19 16:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.37%EV -8.36%E -4.80%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -14.57%E -3.64%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.68%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-19 16:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.53%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.91%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-09-19 16:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.09%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-09-19 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.09%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-09-19 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.58%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.66%1.2%2026-09-19 17:00
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.23%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.63%1.3%2026-09-19 17:00
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.61%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48%1.9%2026-09-19 17:00