Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca v Braga

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 17:00 UTC

Final: Alverca 1–2 Braga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alverca (Local)

Prediction 20.61%4.85fair odd
EV +0.983%
Edge +0.201%
Kelly +0.252%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.08%20.61%20.62%21.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.484.504.9023.81%22.35%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Braga (Visit)

Prediction 52.85%1.89fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -3.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.80%52.84%54.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.751.751.8360.61%57.08%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.54%3.77fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.82%26.60%26.54%27.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.483.503.6129.85%28.75%28.57%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 20.61%; Braga (Visit): 52.85%; Draw: 26.54%. For Alverca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.983%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.983%E +0.201%K +0.252%G +0.002%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -2.11%E -0.444%K -0.562%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 21:05
Pinnacle🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -3.14%E -0.668%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.42%EV -5.92%E -3.33%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.34%EV -4.20%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 23:45
GTbets🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -3.14%E -0.668%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.68%EV -5.39%E -3.01%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.25%EV -8.18%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 21:09
Bovada🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 20.19%EV -4.17%E -0.897%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.35%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 23:39
NordicBet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.90%EV -4.17%E -0.897%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 07:25
Betsson🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.90%EV -4.17%E -0.897%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 07:25
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 20:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -5.92%E -3.33%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 20:59
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
Bally Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 07:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 08:00
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 08:00
PlayUp🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 09:50
Marathon Bet🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.50%EV -6.23%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.50%EV -6.59%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.13%EV -6.23%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.56%EV -9.62%E -5.63%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.32%EV -7.65%E -2.20%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 21:00
DraftKings🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.86%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 00:15
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 07:25
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 20:59
LowVig.ag🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.80%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:14
BetOnline.ag🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.80%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:15
BetUS🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.80%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:15
betano_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 23:40
Bet Victor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 23:39
Unibet (FR)🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.05%EV -8.29%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.08%EV -12.79%E -7.75%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-03 21:00
Coolbet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.28%E -1.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 23:45
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -3.81%E -2.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 23:45
888sport🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 00:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 00:15
888sport (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 00:15
William Hill🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 00:15
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 23:43
BetRivers🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.22%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 04:00
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.22%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 04:00
TABtouch🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.22%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 03:59
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 03:59
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 04:00
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 04:00
NetBet (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.80%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 06:35
Virgin Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -10.35%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 04:00
LiveScore Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -10.35%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 03:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -10.35%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 04:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -10.76%E -2.49%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 23:44
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -10.76%E -2.49%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 23:43
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -10.76%E -2.49%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-03 23:44
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -11.38%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 23:42
Winamax (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -11.38%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.16%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 21:00
Bet Right🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -12.41%E -2.92%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -4.33%E -2.39%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -12.41%E -2.92%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 23:45
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -13.44%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 23:44
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -13.44%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 23:45
Winamax (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -13.44%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.80%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 20:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Matchbook5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.7%2026-09-04 14:10
Kalshi5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.88%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-09-04 14:20
Smarkets5.00I 20.00%NM 19.45%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%2.8%2026-09-04 14:20