Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Alverca v Braga

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-05 17:00 UTC

Score final : Alverca 1–2 Braga

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Alverca (Local)

Prévision 20.61%4.85cote équitable
EV +0.983%
Avantage +0.201%
Kelly +0.252%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 4.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.08%20.61%20.62%21.92%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.204.484.504.9023.81%22.35%22.22%20.41%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Braga (Visiteur)

Prévision 52.85%1.89cote équitable
EV -3.28%
Avantage -1.79%
Kelly -3.95%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.83

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.07%52.80%52.84%54.08%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.651.751.751.8360.61%57.08%57.14%54.64%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 26.54%3.77cote équitable
EV -4.20%
Avantage -1.16%
Kelly -1.61%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.61

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.82%26.60%26.54%27.50%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.353.483.503.6129.85%28.75%28.57%27.70%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Alverca (Local) : 20.61% ; Braga (Visiteur) : 52.85% ; Match nul : 26.54%. Pour Alverca (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.85. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.90, soit une espérance positive de +0.983%.

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV +0.983%E +0.201%K +0.252%G +0.002%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.42%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Fanatics🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.84%EV -2.11%E -0.444%K -0.562%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 21:05
Pinnacle🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -3.14%E -0.668%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.42%EV -5.92%E -3.33%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.34%EV -4.20%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 23:45
GTbets🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -3.14%E -0.668%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.68%EV -5.39%E -3.01%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.25%EV -8.18%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 21:09
Bovada🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 20.19%EV -4.17%E -0.897%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.35%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 23:39
NordicBet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.90%EV -4.17%E -0.897%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 07:25
Betsson🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.90%EV -4.17%E -0.897%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 07:25
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 20:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.76%EV -5.92%E -3.33%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 20:59
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
Bally Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 04:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 07:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 08:00
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 08:00
PlayUp🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -5.20%E -1.13%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 09:50
Marathon Bet🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.50%EV -6.23%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.50%EV -6.59%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.13%EV -6.23%E -1.37%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.56%EV -9.62%E -5.63%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.32%EV -7.65%E -2.20%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 21:00
DraftKings🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.86%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.35%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 00:15
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.51%E -4.29%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 07:25
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 20:59
LowVig.ag🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.80%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:14
BetOnline.ag🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.80%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:15
BetUS🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.80%EV -6.98%E -3.96%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:15
betano_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 23:40
Bet Victor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -7.26%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-03 23:39
Unibet (FR)🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.05%EV -8.29%E -1.86%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.08%EV -12.79%E -7.75%K -19.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.87%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-03 21:00
Coolbet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.28%E -1.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 23:45
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -3.81%E -2.09%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 23:45
888sport🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 00:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 00:15
888sport (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 00:15
William Hill🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 00:15
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -6.45%E -3.64%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 23:43
BetRivers🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.22%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 04:00
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.22%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 04:00
TABtouch🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.22%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 03:59
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 03:59
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 04:00
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 04:00
NetBet (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -9.32%E -2.12%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.80%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 06:35
Virgin Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -10.35%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 04:00
LiveScore Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -10.35%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 03:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.54%EV -10.35%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 04:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -10.76%E -2.49%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 23:44
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -10.76%E -2.49%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 23:43
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -10.76%E -2.49%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.56%E -4.95%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-03 23:44
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -11.38%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 23:42
Winamax (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.02%EV -11.38%E -2.65%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.16%EV -10.15%E -5.97%K -14.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 21:00
Bet Right🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -12.41%E -2.92%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.47%EV -4.33%E -2.39%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -12.41%E -2.92%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 23:45
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -13.44%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 23:44
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -13.44%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -4.86%E -2.70%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 23:45
Winamax (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -13.44%E -3.20%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.80%EV -11.20%E -6.67%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 20:59
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.7%2026-09-04 14:00
Matchbook◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.42%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%1.7%2026-09-04 14:10
Kalshi◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.88%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-09-04 14:20
Smarkets◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.45%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%2.8%2026-09-04 14:20