Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Zagłębie Lubin v Pogoń Szczecin

Inicio: 2026-08-29 18:15 UTC

Final: Zagłębie Lubin 0–0 Pogoń Szczecin

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Zagłębie Lubin (Local)

Predicción 32.76%3.05momio equitativo
EV -0.079%
Ventaja -0.026%
Kelly -0.038%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.61%32.67%32.62%38.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.332.772.803.0542.92%36.17%35.71%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Pogoń Szczecin (Visitante)

Predicción 38.77%2.58momio equitativo
EV +10.51%
Ventaja +3.69%
Kelly +5.68%
Crecimiento +0.597%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.93%38.81%38.78%40.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.222.402.382.8545.05%41.72%42.02%35.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.46%3.51momio equitativo
EV -3.22%
Ventaja -0.947%
Kelly -1.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.14%28.52%28.60%31.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.213.203.4033.90%31.14%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Zagłębie Lubin (Local): 32.76%; Pogoń Szczecin (Visitante): 38.77%; Empate: 28.46%. Para Pogoń Szczecin (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.58. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.85, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +10.51%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.63%EV -20.39%E -8.39%K -14.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV +10.51%E +3.69%K +5.68%G +0.597%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 18:10
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.42%EV -23.67%E -10.16%K -17.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV +4.69%E +1.74%K +2.76%G +0.129%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -10.34%E -3.28%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-29 18:10
1xBet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.21%EV -6.30%E -2.20%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.39%EV -1.51%E -0.596%K -0.983%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.40%EV -8.06%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 18:05
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -3.06%E -1.23%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 17:46
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:00
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:00
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.59%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -3.84%E -1.55%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:00
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.00%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.22%E -0.947%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 17:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -5.00%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 17:55
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -13.18%E -4.97%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.20%EV -5.78%E -2.38%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.34%E -3.28%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 17:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -9.91%E -3.60%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.93%EV -6.17%E -2.55%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 17:55
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -9.91%E -3.60%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.17%E -2.55%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -10.34%E -3.28%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 17:54
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -9.91%E -3.60%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.76%EV -6.17%E -2.55%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -10.34%E -3.28%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 17:55
Pinnacle🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.54%EV -0.079%E -0.026%K -0.038%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.92%EV -6.55%E -2.72%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.54%EV -4.07%E -1.21%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-29 18:00
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -4.99%E -1.72%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -4.64%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 17:45
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 17:50
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -9.91%E -3.60%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -1.72%E -0.572%K -0.858%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -16.03%E -5.43%K -8.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 18:05
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -11.54%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 17:50
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 18:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.94%E -2.89%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 18:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.31%EV -13.84%E -5.26%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-29 18:05
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.40%EV -14.17%E -5.41%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-29 17:50
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.86%EV -13.84%E -5.26%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.42%EV -7.72%E -3.24%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-29 17:50
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -11.54%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.85%EV -8.11%E -3.42%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.93%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -11.54%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.85%EV -8.11%E -3.42%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.93%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 17:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.95%EV -0.079%E -0.026%K -0.038%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.00%EV -8.49%E -3.60%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 18:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.95%EV -0.079%E -0.026%K -0.038%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.00%EV -8.49%E -3.60%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 18:00
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -6.63%E -2.33%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -11.54%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.83%EV -13.18%E -4.97%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 17:55
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -13.18%E -4.97%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.98%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -10.34%E -3.28%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-29 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.70%EV -13.84%E -5.26%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.70%EV -13.84%E -5.26%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.70%EV -13.84%E -5.26%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 18:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.70%EV -13.84%E -5.26%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.71%EV -8.88%E -3.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 18:00
Bovada🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.46%EV -4.01%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.73%EV -10.04%E -4.33%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 17:58
BetUS🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.46%EV -4.01%E -1.37%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.73%EV -10.04%E -4.33%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 18:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.19%EV -5.65%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.13%EV -10.43%E -4.52%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -4.64%E -1.39%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 18:00
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -5.65%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.07%E -1.84%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 18:00
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -5.65%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-29 18:08
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -5.65%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-29 18:10
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.27%E -2.95%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -8.91%E -2.79%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -9.91%E -3.60%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 18:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.54%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.82%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 32.34%EV -10.56%E -3.87%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.72%EV -11.59%E -5.09%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.94%EV -13.18%E -4.32%K -6.43%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-29 18:00
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.66%EV -14.17%E -5.41%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.20%EV -12.76%E -5.67%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.14%EV -7.49%E -2.30%K -3.33%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-29 18:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.39%EV -11.54%E -4.28%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.40%EV -13.92%E -6.27%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -11.76%E -3.79%K -5.60%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-29 18:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 32.34%2.70I 37.04%NM 37.37%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.30%-0.9%2026-08-29 18:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-08-29 18:10
Matchbook◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66%0.7%2026-08-29 18:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.56%1.0%2026-08-29 18:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.56%1.0%2026-08-29 18:10
Smarkets◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.26%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.14%2.1%2026-08-29 18:05