Language:English
Raków Częstochowa v Arka Gdynia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Raków Częstochowa (Local)
Prediction 74.22%1.35fair odd
EV -5.74%
Edge -4.52%
Kelly -21.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.19%74.14%74.19%76.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.241.251.2786.21%80.83%80.00%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arka Gdynia (Visit)
Prediction 9.39%10.65fair odd
EV +5.14%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.504%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 11.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.29%9.44%9.42%11.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.7710.0011.2012.50%10.23%10.00%8.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.39%6.10fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.275%
Kelly -0.330%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.96%16.41%16.39%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.555.506.0020.00%18.02%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Raków Częstochowa (Local): 74.22%; Arka Gdynia (Visit): 9.39%; Draw: 16.39%. For Arka Gdynia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.65. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.31%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 11.20I 8.93%NM 8.29%EV +5.14%E +0.459%K +0.504%G +0.026% | 5.34I 18.73%NM 17.39%EV -12.47%E -2.33%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.26%E +0.297%K +0.326%G +0.011% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -4.93%E -0.850%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -4.93%E -0.850%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -4.93%E -0.850%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -4.93%E -0.850%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.63%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 10.44I 9.58%NM 9.08%EV -1.99%E -0.191%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 5.82I 17.18%NM 16.29%EV -4.60%E -0.790%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.71%EV -7.97%E -6.42%K -33.19%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.04%EV -3.78%E -0.368%K -0.408%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -6.57%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.48%EV -8.71%E -7.08%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.36%EV -8.21%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.57%EV -10.19%E -8.42%K -48.54%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -12.42%E -10.53%K -69.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.53%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.10%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.65%EV -9.88%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -6.57%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.10%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.65%EV -9.88%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -6.57%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.17%EV -7.97%E -6.42%K -33.19%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.15%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.37%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.48%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.25%EV -12.42%E -10.53%K -69.00%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.22%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.53%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.74%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.81%EV -11.76%E -1.25%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -8.21%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 74.16%EV -13.90%E -11.99%K -86.90%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.30%EV -13.16%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.54%EV -14.76%E -2.84%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -15.51%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -15.51%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -15.51%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.99%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -15.51%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.06%EV -10.19%E -8.42%K -48.54%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.10%EV -17.86%E -2.04%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.84%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 73.14%EV -11.68%E -9.81%K -61.46%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.12%EV -19.27%E -2.24%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.74%EV -14.76%E -2.84%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.74%EV -7.97%E -6.42%K -33.19%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -20.20%E -2.38%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV -3.29%E -0.557%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.19%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -20.20%E -2.38%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.19%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -20.20%E -2.38%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 72.71%EV -10.19%E -8.42%K -48.54%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.00%EV -24.90%E -3.11%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.29%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.51% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.57% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.92% | 1.6% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.74% | 1.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.28% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.85% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.87% | 1.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |