La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Raków Częstochowa v Arka Gdynia
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Raków Częstochowa (Local)
Predicción 74.22%1.35momio equitativo
EV -5.74%
Ventaja -4.52%
Kelly -21.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.27
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.19%74.14%74.19%76.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.161.241.251.2786.21%80.83%80.00%78.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Arka Gdynia (Visitante)
Predicción 9.39%10.65momio equitativo
EV +5.14%
Ventaja +0.459%
Kelly +0.504%
Crecimiento +0.026%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.20
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.29%9.44%9.42%11.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
8.009.7710.0011.2012.50%10.23%10.00%8.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 16.39%6.10momio equitativo
EV -1.65%
Ventaja -0.275%
Kelly -0.330%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.96%16.41%16.39%18.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.005.555.506.0020.00%18.02%18.18%16.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.31%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 11.20I 8.93%NM 8.29%EV +5.14%E +0.459%K +0.504%G +0.026% | 5.34I 18.73%NM 17.39%EV -12.47%E -2.33%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Coolbet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.83%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.26%E +0.297%K +0.326%G +0.011% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -4.93%E -0.850%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -4.93%E -0.850%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -4.93%E -0.850%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.78%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -4.93%E -0.850%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| SportsBet | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| FanDuel | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.70%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Bet Victor | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -1.43%E -0.136%K -0.150%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| Pinnacle | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.63%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 10.44I 9.58%NM 9.08%EV -1.99%E -0.191%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 5.82I 17.18%NM 16.29%EV -4.60%E -0.790%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.71%EV -7.97%E -6.42%K -33.19%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.04%EV -3.78%E -0.368%K -0.408%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -6.57%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetMGM | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| DraftKings | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Casumo | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetRivers | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:25 |
| Betway | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| betPARX | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| betfred_uk | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| TABtouch | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.48%EV -8.71%E -7.08%K -37.86%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.36%EV -8.21%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| PlayUp | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.57%EV -10.19%E -8.42%K -48.54%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Paddy Power | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -12.42%E -10.53%K -69.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.53%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -6.12%E -0.612%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betsson | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.10%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.65%EV -9.88%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -6.57%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| NordicBet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.10%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.65%EV -9.88%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.25%EV -6.57%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Fanatics | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.28%EV -5.74%E -4.52%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Bovada | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.68%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.17%EV -7.97%E -6.42%K -33.19%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BoyleSports | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -9.45%E -7.75%K -42.96%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| LeoVegas | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.15%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.37%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.48%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.25%EV -12.42%E -10.53%K -69.00%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.22%EV -10.82%E -1.14%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.53%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.74%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.81%EV -11.76%E -1.25%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV -8.21%E -1.47%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.16I 86.21%NM 74.16%EV -13.90%E -11.99%K -86.90%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.30%EV -13.16%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.54%EV -14.76%E -2.84%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -15.51%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -15.51%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetUS | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -6.48%E -5.14%K -24.93%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -15.51%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Sky Bet | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.99%EV -10.94%E -9.11%K -54.68%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -15.51%E -1.72%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.06%EV -10.19%E -8.42%K -48.54%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.10%EV -17.86%E -2.04%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.84%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.19I 84.03%NM 73.14%EV -11.68%E -9.81%K -61.46%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.12%EV -19.27%E -2.24%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.74%EV -14.76%E -2.84%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.74%EV -7.97%E -6.42%K -33.19%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -20.20%E -2.38%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV -3.29%E -0.557%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Coral | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.19%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -20.20%E -2.38%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.19%EV -7.22%E -5.78%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -20.20%E -2.38%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.21I 82.64%NM 72.71%EV -10.19%E -8.42%K -48.54%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.00%EV -24.90%E -3.11%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.29%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Matchbook | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.51% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.57% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.92% | 1.6% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Kalshi | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.86% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.74% | 1.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Smarkets | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.28% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.85% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.87% | 1.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |