The School of Odds

Pogoń Szczecin v Legia Warszawa

2026-07-24 18:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa - Poland

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Pogoń Szczecin (Local)

Prediction 33.18%3.01fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.83%33.16%33.11%33.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.502.742.782.9040%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Legia Warszawa (Visit)

Prediction 38.38%2.61fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -3.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.52%38.50%38.32%39.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.372.402.4845%42%42%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.44%3.52fair odd
EV -0.454%
Edge -0.130%
Kelly -0.181%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.21%28.34%28.57%29.65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.203.5033%31%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -3.79%E -1.31%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.79%EV -7.88%E -3.28%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -0.454%E -0.130%K -0.181%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 20:09
Pinnacle2.86I 34.97%NM 33.14%EV -5.12%E -1.79%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.22%EV -4.81%E -1.94%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.64%EV -5.86%E -1.77%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 22:40
FanDuel2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -9.80%E -4.17%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.30%E -0.970%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-17 21:59
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -7.88%E -3.28%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.99%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-18 01:50
888sport2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -5.96%E -2.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.83%E -3.82%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 01:29
888sport (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -5.96%E -2.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.83%E -3.82%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 01:29
Mr Green (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.11%E -2.54%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -5.96%E -2.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -11.83%E -3.82%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 01:40
Marathon Bet2.79I 35.84%NM 33.24%EV -7.44%E -2.67%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.48%EV -7.50%E -3.11%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.28%EV -6.71%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 19:59
1xBet2.79I 35.84%NM 33.24%EV -7.44%E -2.67%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.48%EV -7.50%E -3.11%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.28%EV -6.71%E -2.05%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 22:29
Betsson2.78I 35.97%NM 33.14%EV -7.77%E -2.80%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -7.12%E -2.94%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.99%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 19:59
NordicBet2.78I 35.97%NM 33.14%EV -7.77%E -2.80%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -7.12%E -2.94%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.99%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 20:00
Bovada2.78I 35.97%NM 33.14%EV -7.77%E -2.80%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -7.12%E -2.94%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.99%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 00:12
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.65%E -3.63%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.14%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 22:29
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.88%E -3.28%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -8.99%E -2.81%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 19:59
SportsBet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -8.77%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.64%EV -11.72%E -5.10%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -4.72%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-17 20:00
Bet Victor2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -10.42%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -8.65%E -3.63%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -6.14%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 02:19
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.42%E -3.86%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -11.72%E -5.10%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -6.14%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-17 23:09
Betclic (FR)2.62I 38.17%NM 32.90%EV -13.08%E -4.99%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 38.65%EV -14.41%E -6.46%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.45%EV -13.82%E -4.56%K -6.81%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-17 19:58
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 33.11%EV -13.74%E -5.29%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.13%EV -15.56%E -7.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.77%EV -11.83%E -3.82%K -5.63%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-17 19:59
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 33.83%EV -15.40%E -6.04%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.34%EV -13.64%E -6.06%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.83%EV -11.83%E -3.82%K -5.63%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-17 20:20
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 33.67%EV -17.06%E -6.82%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.27%EV -15.56%E -7.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.06%EV -14.67%E -4.89%K -7.34%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-17 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.66I 37.59%NM 33.13%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.98%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.89%13.5%2026-07-17 22:45