La escuela de los momios

Piast Gliwice v Arka Gdynia

Inicio: 2026-04-27 17:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Piast Gliwice (Local)

Predicción 51.44%1.94momio equitativo
EV -3.30%
Ventaja -1.75%
Kelly -3.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.07%51.48%51.46%53.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.651.791.801.8860.61%55.90%55.56%53.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arka Gdynia (Visitante)

Predicción 21.98%4.55momio equitativo
EV -1.95%
Ventaja -0.437%
Kelly -0.563%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.92%21.91%22.06%23.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.114.104.4627.78%24.34%24.39%22.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.58%3.76momio equitativo
EV -3.52%
Ventaja -0.971%
Kelly -1.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.57%26.60%26.48%28.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.393.403.6333.33%29.53%29.41%27.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -3.30%E -1.75%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 17:14
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -3.30%E -1.75%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 17:15
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -3.30%E -1.75%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 17:15
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -3.30%E -1.75%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 17:15
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -4.84%E -2.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 17:15
Casumo1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -4.84%E -2.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 17:15
Grosvenor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -4.84%E -2.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 17:15
betPARX1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -4.84%E -2.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 17:15
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -4.84%E -2.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 17:15
Coolbet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -4.32%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 22:25
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 51.00%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -4.81%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-22 17:00
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-22 12:34
TABtouch1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -10.97%E -3.27%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-20 17:14
888sport1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 09:45
888sport (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 09:45
Mr Green (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -5.87%E -3.21%K -7.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-22 09:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.84%EV -6.38%E -3.51%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-20 17:14
LiveScore Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 49.84%EV -6.38%E -3.51%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-20 17:14
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -5.47%E -1.27%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-22 04:12
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-22 17:04
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 11:00
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -8.76%E -2.11%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 00:20
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -8.76%E -2.11%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-21 00:19
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-20 17:40
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -9.86%E -2.41%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-22 09:19
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 06:04
Virgin Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -7.41%E -4.12%K -9.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-20 17:15
Pinnacle1.79I 55.87%NM 52.79%EV -7.93%E -4.43%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.19%EV -1.95%E -0.437%K -0.563%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.03%EV -3.52%E -0.971%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 13:10
LeoVegas1.78I 56.18%NM 50.04%EV -8.44%E -4.74%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.55%EV -13.16%E -3.33%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-20 17:15
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -8.96%E -5.06%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.29%EV -3.71%E -0.846%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.04%EV -4.85%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 03:30
LowVig.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -8.96%E -5.06%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 11:29
BetOnline.ag1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -8.96%E -5.06%K -11.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.98%E -1.99%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 11:30
Bovada1.76I 56.82%NM 52.62%EV -9.47%E -5.38%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -4.37%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -5.65%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 13:14
BetUS1.76I 56.82%NM 52.62%EV -9.47%E -5.38%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -4.37%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -5.65%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 15:10
Bet Right1.76I 56.82%NM 50.68%EV -9.47%E -5.38%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-24 02:00
PMU (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 49.97%EV -9.47%E -5.38%K -12.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -14.26%E -3.66%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -14.95%E -4.67%K -6.80%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-20 17:15
Marathon Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 53.01%EV -9.98%E -5.71%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.91%EV -4.85%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-24 03:30
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.98%E -5.71%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-20 17:40
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -9.98%E -5.71%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -7.66%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-20 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -9.98%E -5.71%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-22 17:04
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -9.98%E -5.71%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-22 17:04
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -11.01%E -6.37%K -15.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -12.06%E -3.02%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-20 21:30
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 50.10%EV -11.01%E -6.37%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.81%EV -16.46%E -4.33%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -14.95%E -4.67%K -6.80%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-20 17:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.07%EV -11.01%E -6.37%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.64%EV -17.56%E -4.68%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.30%EV -20.27%E -6.76%K -10.13%G +0.000%17.8%2026-04-22 04:14
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -11.53%E -6.70%K -16.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -3.27%E -0.742%K -0.961%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -4.32%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 09:19
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 50.71%EV -11.53%E -6.70%K -16.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.26%EV -17.56%E -4.68%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.03%EV -10.97%E -3.27%K -4.67%G +0.000%14.7%2026-04-21 00:19
Unibet (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 51.25%EV -12.56%E -7.39%K -17.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.34%EV -14.26%E -3.66%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-21 17:01
Betclic (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 50.99%EV -13.07%E -7.73%K -18.94%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.50%EV -15.80%E -4.12%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.51%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.05%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-21 00:18
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 50.21%EV -13.58%E -8.09%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.43%EV -20.85%E -5.79%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.36%EV -14.95%E -4.67%K -6.80%G +0.000%18.6%2026-04-21 00:20
NetBet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 51.79%EV -15.13%E -9.17%K -23.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.91%EV -14.26%E -3.66%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.29%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.05%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-23 23:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 51.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.09%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.54%13.2%2026-04-24 01:10
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 50.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.52%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.02%13.9%2026-04-21 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-23 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-23 17:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-23 17:14