Language:English
Lech Poznań v Raków Częstochowa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lech Poznań (Local)
Prediction 43.74%2.29fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -3.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.00%43.89%43.52%45.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.102.102.2052.36%47.54%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Raków Częstochowa (Visit)
Prediction 30.08%3.32fair odd
EV -0.149%
Edge -0.045%
Kelly -0.064%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.96%30.26%30.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.043.003.3236.36%32.86%33.33%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.485%
Kelly -0.661%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.01%26.15%26.21%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.473.503.7533.33%28.84%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 43.74%; Raków Częstochowa (Visit): 30.08%; Draw: 26.18%. For Raków Częstochowa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.325. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.320, with an expected value of -0.149%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.77%E -1.71%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -5.26%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-01 08:43 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -3.77%E -1.71%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -8.27%E -2.71%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -9.67%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-01 16:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -4.64%E -2.13%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.05%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -4.64%E -2.13%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.05%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -4.64%E -2.13%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.05%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-01 16:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -4.64%E -2.13%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -7.05%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -5.08%E -2.34%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-01 16:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -5.08%E -2.34%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -5.08%E -2.34%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-01 16:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.10%EV -5.08%E -2.34%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.95%E -2.77%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-01 15:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -5.95%E -2.77%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-01 08:43 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -5.95%E -2.77%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -8.27%E -2.71%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-01 15:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -5.95%E -2.77%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -8.27%E -2.71%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-01 15:53 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -5.95%E -2.77%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-01 16:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.95%E -2.77%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-01 08:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -5.95%E -2.77%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-01 06:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.07%EV -6.39%E -2.99%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.27%E -2.71%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.67%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -6.83%E -3.21%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.94%EV -0.149%E -0.045%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.96%EV -3.13%E -0.845%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 16:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -6.83%E -3.21%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.94%EV -0.149%E -0.045%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.96%EV -3.13%E -0.845%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 16:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.33%EV -7.27%E -3.43%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.04%EV -0.450%E -0.136%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.63%EV -1.82%E -0.485%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-01 16:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.25%EV -7.27%E -3.43%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-01 15:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.08%EV -7.27%E -3.43%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -9.67%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-01 16:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.08%EV -7.27%E -3.43%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -9.67%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.76%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-01 16:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.77%E -2.18%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-01 15:53 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-01 15:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-01 15:28 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -11.28%E -3.82%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -7.05%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-01 15:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-01 08:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-01 08:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-02-27 21:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-02-27 21:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-02-27 21:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -11.28%E -3.82%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -8.14%E -3.88%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -12.78%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-01 08:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.58%EV -8.58%E -4.10%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 29.39%EV -4.66%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.03%EV -6.27%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-01 16:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.78%EV -9.45%E -4.57%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.33%EV -4.96%E -1.57%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.89%EV -6.27%E -1.75%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-01 16:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.11%EV -9.45%E -4.57%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.25%EV -11.28%E -3.82%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.64%EV -12.29%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -10.33%E -5.04%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -3.76%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-01 16:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -10.33%E -5.04%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -5.26%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.05%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-01 16:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -10.33%E -5.04%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -5.26%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.05%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-01 16:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.33%E -5.04%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-01 16:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.33%E -5.04%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-01 16:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.49%EV -11.64%E -5.76%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -12.78%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.22%EV -12.29%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-01 16:03 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.73%EV -12.51%E -6.26%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -12.78%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -12.29%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-01 16:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.67%EV -12.51%E -6.26%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.64%EV -14.28%E -5.01%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.69%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-03-01 15:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.00%EV -12.51%E -6.26%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.00%EV -15.79%E -5.64%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.00%EV -21.45%E -7.15%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 19.0% | 2026-03-01 08:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 43.26%EV -13.39%E -6.76%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 30.38%EV -15.19%E -5.39%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.36%EV -14.91%E -4.59%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-03-01 16:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 42.95%EV -14.70%E -7.54%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.46%EV -17.29%E -6.29%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 26.59%EV -17.53%E -5.56%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 19.4% | 2026-03-01 15:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.82%EV -16.45%E -8.61%K -18.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -9.77%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.01%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-03-01 16:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.65% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01% | 1.2% | 2026-03-01 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.65% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01% | 1.2% | 2026-03-01 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.65% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01% | 1.2% | 2026-03-01 16:19 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.34% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.65% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01% | 1.2% | 2026-03-01 16:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.99% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.85% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16% | 1.9% | 2026-03-01 16:25 |