Language:English
Lech Poznań v Radomiak Radom
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lech Poznań (Local)
Prediction 69.85%1.43fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -3.14%
Kelly -11.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.91%69.88%69.80%71.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.321.321.3779.37%75.79%75.76%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Radomiak Radom (Visit)
Prediction 12.87%7.77fair odd
EV +5.55%
Edge +0.676%
Kelly +0.770%
Growth +0.043%
assuming max odds 8.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.23%12.79%12.93%14.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.077.008.2016.00%14.15%14.29%12.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 17.28%5.79fair odd
EV -0.665%
Edge -0.116%
Kelly -0.140%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.30%17.34%17.28%19.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.195.205.7521.74%19.27%19.23%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 69.85%; Radomiak Radom (Visit): 12.87%; Draw: 17.28%. For Radomiak Radom (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.77. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.55%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.39%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.23%EV +5.55%E +0.676%K +0.770%G +0.043% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.38%EV -8.44%E -1.59%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -10.59%E -8.27%K -37.82%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV +2.97%E +0.372%K +0.425%G +0.013% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 18:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.08%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV +2.97%E +0.372%K +0.425%G +0.013% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -9.30%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 18:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.08%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV +2.97%E +0.372%K +0.425%G +0.013% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -9.30%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 18:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.98%EV -4.30%E -3.14%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 7.97I 12.55%NM 12.03%EV +2.59%E +0.325%K +0.371%G +0.010% | 5.33I 18.76%NM 17.99%EV -7.92%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-20 18:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.13%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 12.30%EV -0.245%E -0.032%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -0.665%E -0.116%K -0.140%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.99%EV -8.49%E -6.48%K -27.40%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -3.26%E -0.582%K -0.708%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 18:08 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.94%EV -7.79%E -5.90%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-20 18:08 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.46%EV -4.30%E -3.14%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 7.48I 13.37%NM 12.72%EV -3.72%E -0.497%K -0.574%G +0.000% | 5.34I 18.73%NM 17.82%EV -7.75%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-20 18:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.58%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -6.68%E -0.922%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.86%EV -6.71%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.91%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -6.68%E -0.922%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.63%EV -20.53%E -4.46%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.26%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.89%EV -7.32%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.26%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.89%EV -7.32%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.26%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.89%EV -7.32%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.20%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -0.665%E -0.116%K -0.140%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 17:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -5.70%E -4.22%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-20 18:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -7.79%E -5.90%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-20 17:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-20 15:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.51%EV -7.79%E -5.90%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.49%EV -12.47%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.71%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.56%EV -8.49%E -6.48%K -27.40%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.40%EV -12.47%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.03%EV -7.58%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.56%EV -8.49%E -6.48%K -27.40%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.40%EV -12.47%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.03%EV -7.58%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.10%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.42%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -15.35%E -3.13%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-20 17:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.00%EV -7.79%E -5.90%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 18:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 69.26%EV -11.99%E -9.51%K -46.10%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.93%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.81%EV -15.35%E -3.13%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-20 18:08 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.66%EV -8.49%E -6.48%K -27.40%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -3.26%E -0.582%K -0.708%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -9.30%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -9.30%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-20 18:13 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-20 17:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-20 17:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-20 17:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-20 17:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 68.85%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.80%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.66%EV -17.62%E -2.75%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.49%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-20 18:08 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 68.58%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.80%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 13.82%EV -18.91%E -3.00%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 17.60%EV -14.49%E -2.93%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.03%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -19.55%E -3.13%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.62%EV -6.71%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.25% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.25% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.25% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.25% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.40% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.19% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41% | 1.6% | 2026-09-20 18:09 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.56% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.67% | 2.0% | 2026-09-20 17:19 |