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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Lech Poznań v Radomiak Radom

Inicio: 2026-09-20 18:15 UTC

Final: Lech Poznań 5–1 Radomiak Radom

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lech Poznań (Local)

Predicción 69.85%1.43momio equitativo
EV -4.30%
Ventaja -3.14%
Kelly -11.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.37

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
67.91%69.88%69.80%71.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.261.321.321.3779.37%75.79%75.76%72.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Radomiak Radom (Visitante)

Predicción 12.87%7.77momio equitativo
EV +5.55%
Ventaja +0.676%
Kelly +0.770%
Crecimiento +0.043%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.23%12.79%12.93%14.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.257.077.008.2016.00%14.15%14.29%12.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 17.28%5.79momio equitativo
EV -0.665%
Ventaja -0.116%
Kelly -0.140%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.30%17.34%17.28%19.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.605.195.205.7521.74%19.27%19.23%17.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Lech Poznań (Local): 69.85%; Radomiak Radom (Visitante): 12.87%; Empate: 17.28%. Para Radomiak Radom (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.77. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 8.20, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.55%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.39%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.23%EV +5.55%E +0.676%K +0.770%G +0.043%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.38%EV -8.44%E -1.59%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-20 18:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%EV -10.59%E -8.27%K -37.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV +2.97%E +0.372%K +0.425%G +0.013%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 18:14
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.08%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV +2.97%E +0.372%K +0.425%G +0.013%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -9.30%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 18:14
betano_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.08%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV +2.97%E +0.372%K +0.425%G +0.013%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -9.30%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 18:14
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.98%EV -4.30%E -3.14%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.97I 12.55%NM 12.03%EV +2.59%E +0.325%K +0.371%G +0.010%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.99%EV -7.92%E -1.49%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-20 18:04
Coolbet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.13%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.30%EV -0.245%E -0.032%K -0.036%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -0.665%E -0.116%K -0.140%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-20 18:09
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 18:09
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.99%EV -8.49%E -6.48%K -27.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -3.26%E -0.582%K -0.708%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 18:08
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.94%EV -7.79%E -5.90%K -24.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 18:08
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 18:09
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 18:09
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 18:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 18:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -3.46%E -0.462%K -0.533%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 18:09
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.46%EV -4.30%E -3.14%K -11.63%G +0.000%7.48I 13.37%NM 12.72%EV -3.72%E -0.497%K -0.574%G +0.000%5.34I 18.73%NM 17.82%EV -7.75%E -1.45%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 18:14
SportsBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.58%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -6.68%E -0.922%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.86%EV -6.71%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 18:09
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.91%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.46%EV -6.68%E -0.922%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.63%EV -20.53%E -4.46%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 18:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.26%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.89%EV -7.32%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 18:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.26%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.89%EV -7.32%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 18:09
BetUS🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.26%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.89%EV -7.32%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 18:09
BetMGM🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.20%EV -6.40%E -4.77%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -0.665%E -0.116%K -0.140%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-20 18:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 17:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 17:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 17:50
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 17:49
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 17:50
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 17:49
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.69%EV -5.00%E -3.68%K -13.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -10.17%E -1.96%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -4.98%E -0.906%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 18:09
Fanatics🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.36%EV -5.70%E -4.22%K -16.28%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-20 18:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.84%EV -7.79%E -5.90%K -24.36%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 17:09
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 15:15
Bet Right🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -9.90%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 18:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.51%EV -7.79%E -5.90%K -24.36%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.49%EV -12.47%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.71%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 18:09
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.56%EV -8.49%E -6.48%K -27.40%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.40%EV -12.47%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.03%EV -7.58%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 18:09
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.56%EV -8.49%E -6.48%K -27.40%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.40%EV -12.47%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.03%EV -7.58%E -1.42%K -1.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 18:09
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.10%EV -7.10%E -5.34%K -21.50%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.42%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.48%EV -15.35%E -3.13%K -3.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 17:50
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.00%EV -7.79%E -5.90%K -24.36%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.30%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-20 18:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 69.26%EV -11.99%E -9.51%K -46.10%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.93%EV -13.12%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.81%EV -15.35%E -3.13%K -3.94%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-20 18:08
Winamax (DE)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.66%EV -8.49%E -6.48%K -27.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -3.26%E -0.582%K -0.708%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 18:09
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -9.30%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-20 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.08%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.11%EV -9.30%E -1.77%K -2.19%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-20 18:09
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 18:09
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 68.66%EV -9.89%E -7.67%K -34.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.63%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 18:13
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-20 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-20 17:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-20 17:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -16.33%E -2.51%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -17.08%E -3.56%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-20 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 68.85%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.80%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.66%EV -17.62%E -2.75%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.49%EV -13.62%E -2.72%K -3.41%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 18:08
Unibet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 68.58%EV -11.29%E -8.89%K -41.80%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 13.82%EV -18.91%E -3.00%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.60%EV -14.49%E -2.93%K -3.67%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-20 18:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.03%EV -9.19%E -7.07%K -30.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV -19.55%E -3.13%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.62%EV -6.71%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-20 18:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.25%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-09-20 18:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.25%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-09-20 18:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.25%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-09-20 18:09
Matchbook◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.25%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.25%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%1.0%2026-09-20 18:09
Smarkets◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.40%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.19%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41%1.6%2026-09-20 18:09
Kalshi◎1.37I 72.99%NM 71.56%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.67%2.0%2026-09-20 17:19