Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cracovia Kraków v Raków Częstochowa

Inicio: 2026-08-16 15:30 UTC

Final: Cracovia Kraków 2–1 Raków Częstochowa

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cracovia Kraków (Local)

Predicción 37.90%2.64momio equitativo
EV -3.36%
Ventaja -1.32%
Kelly -2.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.83%37.88%37.91%38.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.432.422.5543.48%41.18%41.32%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Raków Częstochowa (Visitante)

Predicción 32.88%3.04momio equitativo
EV -4.64%
Ventaja -1.60%
Kelly -2.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.81%32.91%32.87%33.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.652.782.762.9037.74%35.96%36.23%34.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.22%3.42momio equitativo
EV -1.53%
Ventaja -0.455%
Kelly -0.646%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.37

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.97%29.22%29.21%30.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.123.103.3733.90%32.04%32.26%29.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cracovia Kraków (Local): 37.90%; Raków Częstochowa (Visitante): 32.88%; Empate: 29.22%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.42. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.37, con un valor esperado de -1.53%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -3.36%E -1.32%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -3.58%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-16 15:24
Pinnacle🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.90%EV -3.74%E -1.47%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.54%EV -5.63%E -1.96%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.56%EV -1.53%E -0.455%K -0.646%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-16 15:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.10%EV -3.74%E -1.47%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.90%EV -8.59%E -3.09%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.04%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 15:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.10%EV -3.74%E -1.47%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.90%EV -8.59%E -3.09%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.04%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 15:20
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -5.25%E -2.10%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.04%E -1.55%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 15:14
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.25%E -2.10%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 15:19
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.25%E -2.10%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 15:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -5.25%E -2.10%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 15:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 15:24
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 15:25
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 15:25
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 15:25
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 15:21
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.63%EV -6.01%E -2.42%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 15:25
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.71%EV -6.77%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.17%EV -7.08%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.71%EV -6.77%E -2.75%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.17%EV -7.08%E -2.23%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 15:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.22%EV -7.15%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.51%EV -5.30%E -1.84%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -6.50%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 14:30
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -7.15%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.50%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 15:19
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.15%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.15%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 15:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.15%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.93%E -2.83%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 15:14
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -7.15%E -2.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 15:20
Bovada🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.78%EV -7.53%E -3.09%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.40%EV -9.24%E -3.35%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -6.50%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 15:18
BetUS🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.78%EV -7.53%E -3.09%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.40%EV -9.24%E -3.35%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -6.50%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 15:19
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.84%EV -8.29%E -3.42%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.13%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%EV -10.88%E -3.57%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 14:30
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.84%EV -8.29%E -3.42%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.13%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.03%EV -10.88%E -3.57%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 14:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.12%EV -8.67%E -3.60%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.24%EV -6.28%E -2.20%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:35
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -3.58%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-16 15:14
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -4.64%E -1.60%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-16 14:34
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.50%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 15:25
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.50%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 15:25
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.50%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 15:19
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-16 15:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -11.22%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-16 15:24
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -12.34%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 15:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -12.34%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 15:19
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -12.34%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-16 15:14
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.32%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -12.86%E -4.85%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-16 15:25
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -9.04%E -3.77%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -11.22%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -12.34%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-16 15:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -9.80%E -4.12%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -11.22%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -13.80%E -4.68%K -7.08%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 15:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -9.80%E -4.12%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -11.22%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -13.80%E -4.68%K -7.08%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 15:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -9.80%E -4.12%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -11.22%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -13.80%E -4.68%K -7.08%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 15:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.20%EV -9.80%E -4.12%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.79%EV -11.22%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -13.80%E -4.68%K -7.08%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 15:14
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.85%EV -10.18%E -4.30%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -11.22%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.93%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 15:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.85%EV -10.18%E -4.30%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -11.22%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.93%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-16 15:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -10.94%E -4.66%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -7.96%E -2.53%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 14:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.75%EV -12.08%E -5.21%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.05%EV -12.86%E -4.85%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -12.34%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-16 15:19
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.83%E -5.58%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-16 14:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -12.83%E -5.58%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.22%E -4.15%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -9.42%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-16 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.49%EV -12.83%E -5.58%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.19%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.31%EV -11.76%E -3.89%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 15:13
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -12.83%E -5.58%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -9.57%E -3.48%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -12.34%E -4.11%K -6.17%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-16 15:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.30%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.08%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-08-16 15:15
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.66%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-08-16 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.54%1.1%2026-08-16 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.54%1.1%2026-08-16 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.98%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.54%1.1%2026-08-16 15:15
Smarkets◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.41%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.89%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.70%2.0%2026-08-16 15:20