Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cracovia Kraków v Górnik Zabrze

Inicio: 2026-09-06 12:46 UTC

Final: Cracovia Kraków 0–1 Górnik Zabrze

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cracovia Kraków (Local)

Predicción 36.65%2.73momio equitativo
EV -1.77%
Ventaja -0.661%
Kelly -1.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.62%36.61%36.64%39.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.232.462.452.6844.84%40.71%40.82%37.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Górnik Zabrze (Visitante)

Predicción 35.26%2.84momio equitativo
EV +1.54%
Ventaja +0.534%
Kelly +0.818%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.55%35.29%35.21%36.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.642.602.8840.82%37.88%38.46%34.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.09%3.56momio equitativo
EV -0.837%
Ventaja -0.237%
Kelly -0.331%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.92%28.10%28.15%29.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.283.253.5332.26%30.47%30.77%28.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cracovia Kraków (Local): 36.65%; Górnik Zabrze (Visitante): 35.26%; Empate: 28.09%. Para Górnik Zabrze (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.84. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.88, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.54%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.89%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV +1.54%E +0.534%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.89%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV +1.54%E +0.534%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:30
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.89%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV +1.54%E +0.534%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:30
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.89%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV +1.54%E +0.534%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.89%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV +1.54%E +0.534%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:30
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.89%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV +1.54%E +0.534%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.89%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV +1.54%E +0.534%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.89%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV +1.54%E +0.534%K +0.818%G +0.013%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:30
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.95%EV -1.77%E -0.661%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.03%EV -3.05%E -1.11%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.02%EV -6.74%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-06 12:25
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.83%EV -14.60%E -6.27%K -10.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -3.05%E -1.11%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 12:25
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -17.53%E -7.79%K -14.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -3.05%E -1.11%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 12:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.64%EV -18.27%E -8.19%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.74%EV -4.81%E -1.78%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 12:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.64%EV -18.27%E -8.19%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.74%EV -4.81%E -1.78%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 12:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.64%EV -18.27%E -8.19%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.74%EV -4.81%E -1.78%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 12:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.64%EV -18.27%E -8.19%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.74%EV -4.81%E -1.78%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 12:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.32%EV -2.51%E -0.942%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.32%EV -6.22%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 12:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.32%EV -2.51%E -0.942%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.32%EV -6.22%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 12:40
BetUS🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.32%EV -2.51%E -0.942%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.32%EV -6.22%E -2.34%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 12:40
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -1.68%E -0.480%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 12:35
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.54%E -2.56%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 12:20
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -6.54%E -2.56%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -6.54%E -2.56%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.00%EV -6.57%E -2.48%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.63%EV -8.98%E -2.77%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 12:30
Bovada🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.85%EV -5.80%E -2.26%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.90%EV -6.92%E -2.62%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -11.51%E -3.65%K -5.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:20
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -7.63%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 12:20
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -7.63%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 12:20
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -8.33%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.92%EV -0.837%E -0.237%K -0.331%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 12:35
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -4.70%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -8.33%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 12:45
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.33%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 12:35
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.33%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 12:20
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.33%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 12:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.96%EV -9.10%E -3.67%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.26%EV -8.33%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 12:20
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -8.33%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 12:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -8.33%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 12:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -8.33%E -3.21%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 12:35
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.67%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -5.89%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 12:35
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -6.54%E -2.56%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 12:39
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -6.54%E -2.56%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 12:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 12:35
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 12:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.65%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.70%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 12:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.65%EV -13.87%E -5.90%K -10.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.70%EV -10.10%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -2.87%E -1.08%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.41%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -5.89%E -1.76%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 12:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -8.37%E -3.35%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-06 12:35
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 12:35
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -8.70%E -2.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 12:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 12:20
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 12:20
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.11%E -3.16%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 12:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -12.03%E -5.01%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-06 12:44
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.77%EV -12.77%E -5.36%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -11.86%E -4.74%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.23%EV -12.92%E -4.17%K -6.15%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-06 12:43
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -10.20%E -4.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -13.62%E -5.56%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -7.30%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 12:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.09%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.82%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.09%1.1%2026-09-06 12:40
Matchbook◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.34%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.80%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.86%1.9%2026-09-06 12:45
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.31%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.27%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-09-06 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.42%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.86%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.71%2.4%2026-09-06 12:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.33%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.03%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.64%2.7%2026-09-06 12:45
Smarkets◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.00%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.21%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.80%3.7%2026-09-06 12:45