Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Viking FK v Sarpsborg FK

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 14:00 UTC

Final: Viking FK 2–1 Sarpsborg FK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Viking FK (Local)

Prediction 68.16%1.47fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -5.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.47%68.17%68.03%70.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.351.351.4380.00%73.82%74.07%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visit)

Prediction 14.21%7.04fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.419%
Kelly +0.486%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.11%14.22%14.33%15.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.596.507.2517.54%15.18%15.38%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.63%5.67fair odd
EV +2.42%
Edge +0.417%
Kelly +0.503%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 5.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.64%17.62%17.65%20.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.195.255.8122.22%19.28%19.05%17.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Viking FK (Local): 68.16%; Sarpsborg FK (Visit): 14.21%; Draw: 17.63%. For Sarpsborg FK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.04. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.01%EV -5.94%E -4.30%K -15.63%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.33%EV +3.04%E +0.419%K +0.486%G +0.015%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.66%EV +2.24%E +0.387%K +0.467%G +0.010%3.5%2026-08-08 13:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.01%EV -5.94%E -4.30%K -15.63%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.33%EV +3.04%E +0.419%K +0.486%G +0.015%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.66%EV +2.24%E +0.387%K +0.467%G +0.010%3.5%2026-08-08 13:39
BetAnything🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.82%EV -5.26%E -3.78%K -13.48%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.48%EV +2.32%E +0.323%K +0.375%G +0.009%5.81I 17.21%NM 16.70%EV +2.42%E +0.417%K +0.503%G +0.012%3.0%2026-08-08 13:54
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.43%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.44%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.11%EV +2.32%E +0.323%K +0.375%G +0.009%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.46%EV -14.50%E -2.99%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 13:30
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.43%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.44%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.11%EV +2.32%E +0.323%K +0.375%G +0.009%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.46%EV -14.50%E -2.99%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 13:30
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.61%EV -5.26%E -3.78%K -13.48%G +0.000%7.15I 13.99%NM 13.53%EV +1.61%E +0.226%K +0.262%G +0.004%5.74I 17.42%NM 16.86%EV +1.19%E +0.207%K +0.250%G +0.003%3.4%2026-08-08 13:45
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.05%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -1.28%E -0.229%K -0.279%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 13:39
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:05
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:04
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:04
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:04
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -0.518%E -0.074%K -0.086%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 14:05
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.61%EV -5.94%E -4.30%K -15.63%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.62%EV -1.23%E -0.177%K -0.206%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.76%EV -6.04%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 13:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.63%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.73%EV -4.07%E -0.603%K -0.708%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 00:25
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.06%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.61%EV -4.07%E -0.603%K -0.708%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -6.57%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:39
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.51%EV -10.03%E -7.60%K -31.34%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -4.07%E -0.603%K -0.708%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-07 09:54
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.87%EV -2.53%E -1.77%K -5.89%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.49%EV -4.78%E -0.714%K -0.839%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.65%EV -3.04%E -0.554%K -0.677%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-08 07:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.99%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.70%EV -4.78%E -0.714%K -0.839%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.31%EV -6.57%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.30%E -5.37%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.02%EV -5.49%E -0.826%K -0.972%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -5.69%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 13:54
GTbets🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.06%EV -3.21%E -2.26%K -7.65%G +0.000%6.62I 15.11%NM 14.38%EV -5.92%E -0.894%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.56%EV -9.57%E -1.86%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 13:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 13:34
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -4.58%E -3.27%K -11.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 13:55
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.34%EV -5.94%E -4.30%K -15.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -3.04%E -0.554%K -0.677%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:40
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.98%E -5.91%K -22.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -3.04%E -0.554%K -0.677%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-08 13:34
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -7.30%E -5.37%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 00:25
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -7.30%E -5.37%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:50
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -7.30%E -5.37%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:50
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -11.39%E -8.76%K -37.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 13:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -11.39%E -8.76%K -37.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.25%EV -11.39%E -8.76%K -37.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.11%EV -13.62%E -2.78%K -3.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-07 09:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.25%EV -11.39%E -8.76%K -37.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -7.62%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.11%EV -13.62%E -2.78%K -3.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-07 09:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.56%EV -14.80%E -11.84%K -59.20%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.39%EV -9.04%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.04%EV -16.27%E -3.42%K -4.34%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-07 09:54
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.29%EV -5.94%E -4.30%K -15.63%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -11.18%E -1.79%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.86%EV -8.33%E -1.60%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 13:39
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.29%EV -5.94%E -4.30%K -15.63%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -11.18%E -1.79%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.86%EV -8.33%E -1.60%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 13:39
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.47%EV -5.94%E -4.30%K -15.63%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.46%EV -11.18%E -1.79%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -20.67%E -4.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 13:40
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.62%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.39%EV -11.18%E -1.79%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-08 13:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.22%EV -8.67%E -6.47%K -25.49%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.77%EV -13.31%E -2.18%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.01%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-08 13:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.62%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.74%EV -13.31%E -2.18%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.63%EV -10.10%E -1.98%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-08 13:35
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -5.94%E -4.30%K -15.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -14.73%E -2.45%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:35
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -7.30%E -5.37%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -14.73%E -2.45%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.44%EV -7.45%E -1.42%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-08 13:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.30%E -5.37%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.73%E -2.45%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:39
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.30%E -5.37%K -20.28%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.73%E -2.45%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:30
Bet Right🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.97%EV -9.35%E -7.03%K -28.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.85%EV -14.73%E -2.45%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.18%EV -13.62%E -2.78%K -3.49%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-08 13:39
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.72%EV -11.39%E -8.76%K -37.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -14.73%E -2.45%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.61%EV -11.86%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-08 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.24%EV -7.30%E -5.37%K -20.28%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV -16.15%E -2.74%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.26%EV -6.57%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 13:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -7.30%E -5.37%K -20.28%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.56%EV -18.28%E -3.18%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -15.38%E -3.21%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 13:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.76%EV -8.67%E -6.47%K -25.49%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.70%EV -18.99%E -3.33%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.54%EV -10.10%E -1.98%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 13:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.40%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.40%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.40%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-08-08 13:55
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.40%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-08-08 13:55
Smarkets1.40I 71.43%NM 70.54%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.00%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.46%1.3%2026-08-08 13:45

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