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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Sarpsborg FK v KFUM

Inicio: 2026-09-18 17:00 UTC

Final: Sarpsborg FK 1–3 KFUM

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sarpsborg FK (Local)

Predicción 60.72%1.65momio equitativo
EV -3.46%
Ventaja -2.17%
Kelly -5.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.49%60.69%60.68%62.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.451.531.531.5968.97%65.19%65.36%62.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

KFUM (Visitante)

Predicción 17.32%5.77momio equitativo
EV +5.11%
Ventaja +0.842%
Kelly +1.01%
Crecimiento +0.052%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.88%17.29%17.36%18.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.225.106.0721.05%19.17%19.61%16.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.96%4.55momio equitativo
EV -3.36%
Ventaja -0.764%
Kelly -0.989%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.70%22.02%21.96%23.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.854.144.104.4025.97%24.17%24.39%22.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sarpsborg FK (Local): 60.72%; KFUM (Visitante): 17.32%; Empate: 21.96%. Para KFUM (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.77. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.07, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.11%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%6.07I 16.47%NM 15.88%EV +5.11%E +0.842%K +1.01%G +0.052%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.91%EV -3.36%E -0.764%K -0.989%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-18 15:25
Coolbet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.09%EV -3.46%E -2.17%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.32%EV +3.03%E +0.510%K +0.613%G +0.019%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV -5.56%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-18 11:05
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.57%EV -4.06%E -2.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.08%EV +3.03%E +0.510%K +0.613%G +0.019%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.34%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-18 15:20
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV +0.437%E +0.075%K +0.091%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 15:20
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.56%EV -8.31%E -5.51%K -16.30%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.31%EV -1.29%E -0.227%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.51%EV -10.74%E -7.31%K -22.85%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.12%EV -1.29%E -0.227%K -0.275%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -5.56%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.88%EV -3.03%E -0.540%K -0.658%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 15:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.88%EV -3.03%E -0.540%K -0.658%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 15:05
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.88%EV -3.03%E -0.540%K -0.658%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 15:02
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.79%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.59I 17.89%NM 17.07%EV -3.20%E -0.572%K -0.697%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.14%EV -5.34%E -1.24%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 14:45
GTbets🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.53I 18.08%NM 17.08%EV -4.24%E -0.766%K -0.936%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.38%EV -7.32%E -1.73%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 14:45
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.76%E -0.865%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -5.56%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 12:20
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.29%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -4.76%E -0.865%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -4.90%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.79%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.07%EV -5.62%E -1.03%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 14:39
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -6.49%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 15:27
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.38%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -6.49%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 15:29
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.84%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.90%EV -6.49%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -6.49%E -4.22%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.49%EV -4.46%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 12:25
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.64%EV -6.49%E -4.22%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -4.90%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 14:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.24%EV -5.88%E -3.80%K -10.70%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -6.66%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 11:00
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -5.28%E -3.38%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 11:24
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 14:29
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 14:28
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.18%EV -9.53%E -6.39%K -19.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.45%EV -6.66%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 12:25
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.37%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -9.09%E -1.73%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -15.44%E -4.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-18 15:20
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.99%EV -4.06%E -2.57%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 13:35
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 13:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 13:35
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 13:34
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 13:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 13:35
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.14%EV -4.67%E -2.97%K -8.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -11.68%E -2.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -9.95%E -2.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 13:35
LeoVegas🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.33%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.34%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.33%EV -5.56%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-18 14:30
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 13:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.19%EV -8.31%E -5.51%K -16.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 12:30
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 14:34
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-18 15:25
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -14.34%E -3.68%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 15:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.00%EV -11.96%E -8.25%K -26.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -13.42%E -2.68%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.31%EV -8.85%E -2.13%K -2.81%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-18 12:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.72%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.59%EV -15.15%E -3.09%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -3.36%E -0.764%K -0.989%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 12:25
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.61%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -13.25%E -3.35%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-18 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.05%EV -9.53%E -6.39%K -19.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -7.75%E -1.85%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 12:25
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 14:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 14:35
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -16.88%E -3.52%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 14:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.49%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -14.34%E -3.68%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 13:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.49%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.72%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -14.34%E -3.68%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-18 13:35
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -12.15%E -3.04%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-18 12:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.65%EV -8.31%E -5.51%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.64%EV -17.75%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -14.34%E -3.68%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-18 13:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.50%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.50%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.00%1.0%2026-09-18 15:30
Smarkets◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.79%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%1.8%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.79%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%1.8%2026-09-18 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.79%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%1.8%2026-09-18 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.79%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.83%1.8%2026-09-18 15:20