The School of Odds
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Sarpsborg FK v Bodø/Glimt

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sarpsborg FK (Local)

Prediction 18.47%5.41fair odd
EV +7.13%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.68%18.28%18.49%19.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.884.905.8023.26%20.47%20.41%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bodø/Glimt (Visit)

Prediction 62.05%1.61fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -5.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.69%62.22%62.03%64.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.471.481.5672.46%67.82%67.57%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.48%5.13fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.525%
Kelly -0.656%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.35%19.50%19.48%22.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.604.705.0026.67%21.73%21.28%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarpsborg FK (Local): 18.47%; Bodø/Glimt (Visit): 62.05%; Draw: 19.48%. For Sarpsborg FK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV +7.13%E +1.23%K +1.49%G +0.106%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.97%EV -13.12%E -9.37%K -32.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -8.47%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 02:34
GTbets🎯5.33I 18.76%NM 17.72%EV -1.55%E -0.291%K -0.359%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -6.30%E -4.17%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.75%EV -6.91%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-08 14:50
FanDuel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -2.11%E -0.397%K -0.490%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.99%EV -8.16%E -5.51%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-12 18:09
Fanatics🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -3.03%E -0.577%K -0.713%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.76%EV -8.16%E -5.51%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-08 07:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.62%EV -3.03%E -0.577%K -0.713%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.91%EV -8.78%E -5.97%K -18.68%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-12 05:39
Pinnacle🎯5.04I 19.84%NM 18.83%EV -6.91%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.06%E -3.31%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.14%EV -3.40%E -0.686%K -0.859%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-11 21:40
1xBet🎯5.01I 19.96%NM 19.08%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.29%EV -3.20%E -2.05%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.63%EV -5.16%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-11 22:34
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -6.92%E -4.61%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 15:46
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -6.92%E -4.61%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -12.36%E -2.75%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-08 15:39
Tipico (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -10.02%E -6.91%K -22.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -2.62%E -0.525%K -0.656%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 14:09
Bet Right🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.81%EV -8.16%E -5.51%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -10.41%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-12 05:40
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.97%EV -8.78%E -5.97%K -18.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -10.41%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-12 18:09
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -7.65%E -1.53%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -10.64%E -7.39%K -24.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.36%E -2.75%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-12 16:59
DraftKings🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.31%EV -5.06%E -3.31%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.52%E -1.36%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-11 21:40
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.34%EV -5.68%E -3.74%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-11 22:26
Bovada🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.53%EV -6.92%E -4.61%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.64%EV -8.47%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-12 18:11
BetUS🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -9.49%E -1.94%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.53%EV -6.92%E -4.61%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.64%EV -8.47%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-12 18:10
Betsson🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.50%EV -10.42%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.01%EV -3.82%E -2.46%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.50%EV -5.55%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-11 21:40
NordicBet🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.50%EV -10.42%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.01%EV -3.82%E -2.46%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.50%EV -5.55%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-11 21:40
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -6.92%E -4.61%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -12.36%E -2.75%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-11 21:50
Bet Victor🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -11.34%E -2.36%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.76%EV -6.92%E -4.61%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -12.36%E -2.75%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-12 22:04
Everygame🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -12.27%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.29%EV -6.92%E -4.61%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-13 02:59
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.53%EV -12.27%E -2.58%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.14%EV -10.64%E -7.39%K -24.19%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.33%EV -15.67%E -3.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-12 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.19%EV -13.19%E -2.81%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 61.94%EV -14.36%E -10.41%K -37.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.88%EV -16.26%E -3.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-12 18:09
PlayUp🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -15.04%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -6.92%E -4.61%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -14.31%E -3.25%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-11 21:40
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -15.04%E -3.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.50%EV -10.64%E -7.39%K -24.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -10.41%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-08 15:45
Betclic (FR)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 18.96%EV -15.96%E -3.51%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 61.20%EV -12.50%E -8.87%K -30.50%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.84%EV -15.28%E -3.51%K -4.56%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-08 15:45
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.18%EV -16.88%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 61.64%EV -13.12%E -9.37%K -32.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.18%EV -12.36%E -2.75%K -3.53%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-08 07:43
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 18.78%EV -16.88%E -3.75%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 58.69%EV -10.64%E -7.39%K -24.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.54%EV -26.97%E -7.19%K -9.81%G +0.000%18.3%2026-03-12 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 19.72%EV -20.58%E -4.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 60.56%EV -13.12%E -9.37%K -32.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.72%EV -16.26%E -3.78%K -4.93%G +0.000%17.9%2026-03-08 15:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 19.36%EV -20.58%E -4.79%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 60.33%EV -14.36%E -10.41%K -37.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.31%EV -20.15%E -4.92%K -6.50%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-08 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎5.10I 19.61%NM 18.68%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.87%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%5.0%2026-03-12 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.32%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.84%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.84%5.0%2026-03-13 03:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.32%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.84%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.84%5.0%2026-03-13 03:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.20I 19.23%NM 18.32%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.84%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.84%5.0%2026-03-13 03:10