Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Molde v Fredrikstad FK

2026-10-25 18:15 UTC — Eliteserien - Norway

Resultado del partido

39 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Molde (Local)

Predicción 63.42%1.58momio equitativo
EV -2.97%
Ventaja -1.94%
Kelly -5.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.14%63.44%63.33%65.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.341.431.421.5374.63%70.07%70.42%65.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fredrikstad FK (Visitante)

Predicción 16.57%6.03momio equitativo
EV +6.06%
Ventaja +0.947%
Kelly +1.12%
Crecimiento +0.068%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.62%16.58%16.67%18.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.755.806.4021.05%17.41%17.24%15.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.01%5.00momio equitativo
EV -3.96%
Ventaja -0.824%
Kelly -1.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.37%19.98%19.99%20.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.604.604.8023.81%21.76%21.74%20.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Molde (Local): 63.42%; Fredrikstad FK (Visitante): 16.57%; Empate: 20.01%. Para Fredrikstad FK (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 6.03. 10 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 6.40, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +6.06%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (39 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.89%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +6.06%E +0.947%K +1.12%G +0.068%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:39
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.89%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +6.06%E +0.947%K +1.12%G +0.068%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.89%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +6.06%E +0.947%K +1.12%G +0.068%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.89%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +6.06%E +0.947%K +1.12%G +0.068%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.89%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +6.06%E +0.947%K +1.12%G +0.068%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.89%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +6.06%E +0.947%K +1.12%G +0.068%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.89%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +6.06%E +0.947%K +1.12%G +0.068%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:39
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.89%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.62%EV +6.06%E +0.947%K +1.12%G +0.068%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 18:40
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.52%EV -12.48%E -9.04%K -32.85%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.82%EV +1.09%E +0.178%K +0.213%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 18:39
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.52%EV -12.48%E -9.04%K -32.85%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.82%EV +1.09%E +0.178%K +0.213%G +0.002%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -8.68%E -6.03%K -19.72%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -0.569%E -0.095%K -0.114%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 01:54
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -9.31%E -6.51%K -21.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -0.569%E -0.095%K -0.114%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -3.96%E -0.824%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 19:23
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -13.75%E -10.11%K -38.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -0.569%E -0.095%K -0.114%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -13.75%E -10.11%K -38.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -0.569%E -0.095%K -0.114%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-18 18:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -13.75%E -10.11%K -38.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -0.569%E -0.095%K -0.114%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-18 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -13.75%E -10.11%K -38.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -0.569%E -0.095%K -0.114%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-18 18:39
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.97%EV -3.60%E -2.37%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.22%EV -2.23%E -0.377%K -0.454%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.81%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-19 01:14
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.66%EV -9.31%E -6.51%K -21.65%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -2.23%E -0.377%K -0.454%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -5.96%E -1.27%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 19:24
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.73%EV -5.51%E -3.69%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.23%EV -3.05%E -0.522%K -0.630%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.03%EV -5.16%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 19:44
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.97%EV -5.51%E -3.69%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -3.88%E -0.670%K -0.809%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-19 01:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -8.04%E -5.55%K -17.87%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -4.71%E -0.819%K -0.992%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 18:35
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.74%EV -6.77%E -4.61%K -14.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -8.85%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-18 19:29
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -8.68%E -6.03%K -19.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -8.85%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 19:30
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -8.04%E -5.55%K -17.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -8.85%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 20:44
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.82%EV -9.94%E -7.00%K -23.68%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -8.85%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.70%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-18 18:34
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.72%EV -8.68%E -6.03%K -19.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.42%EV -8.85%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.86%EV -13.36%E -3.09%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-18 19:35
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -11.21%E -8.01%K -28.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -8.85%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-18 19:24
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -11.21%E -8.01%K -28.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -8.85%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -13.36%E -3.09%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-18 19:24
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.39%EV -2.97%E -1.94%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.49I 18.21%NM 17.39%EV -9.02%E -1.64%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.22%EV -5.56%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 19:15
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.44%EV -4.24%E -2.81%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.36%EV -10.02%E -1.84%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.19%EV -6.56%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-19 00:09
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.76%EV -3.60%E -2.37%K -6.93%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV -10.51%E -1.95%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.86%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-19 01:11
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.41%EV -5.51%E -3.69%K -11.24%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.38%EV -11.34%E -2.12%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 19:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.43%EV -12.48%E -9.04%K -32.85%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.67%EV -13.00%E -2.48%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.89%EV -11.96%E -2.72%K -3.52%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-18 18:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.73%EV -8.04%E -5.55%K -17.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -13.83%E -2.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.77%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-19 00:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.23%EV -11.85%E -8.52%K -30.38%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.23%EV -15.48%E -3.04%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.53%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-18 19:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 63.37%EV -15.02%E -11.21%K -44.17%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.65%EV -15.48%E -3.04%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 19.98%EV -14.96%E -3.52%K -4.60%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-18 18:34
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.98%EV -11.21%E -8.01%K -28.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.36%EV -17.14%E -3.43%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.66%EV -15.96%E -3.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-18 19:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 62.69%EV -12.48%E -9.04%K -32.85%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.65%EV -18.80%E -3.84%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.66%EV -11.96%E -2.72%K -3.52%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-18 19:25
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.14%EV -8.68%E -6.03%K -19.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.53%EV -21.28%E -4.48%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.33%EV -13.36%E -3.09%K -4.01%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-18 18:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 62.32%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.20%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.48%16.3%2026-10-18 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-18 22:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-18 22:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-18 22:10