L’École des cotes

Lillestrom v Viking FK

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-30 14:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

33 opérateurs (7 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Lillestrom (Local)

Prévision 30.44%3.28cote équitable
EV -1.06%
Avantage -0.325%
Kelly -0.469%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.06%30.43%30.55%32.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.703.003.053.2537.04%33.28%32.79%30.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Viking FK (Visiteur)

Prévision 45.07%2.22cote équitable
EV -3.10%
Avantage -1.44%
Kelly -2.69%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
42.75%45.04%44.96%45.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.862.032.052.1553.76%49.27%48.78%46.51%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.49%4.08cote équitable
EV -1.57%
Avantage -0.390%
Kelly -0.520%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.02

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.04%24.53%24.49%26.72%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.733.754.0231.25%26.78%26.67%24.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (33 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Betsson3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -1.06%E -0.325%K -0.469%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.25%E -3.01%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -9.40%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 07:39
NordicBet3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -1.06%E -0.325%K -0.469%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -6.25%E -3.01%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -9.40%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-24 07:40
Unibet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:09
Unibet (NL)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:09
BetRivers3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:08
LeoVegas (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:09
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:09
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:09
Unibet (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:09
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:09
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:09
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-23 14:09
Fanatics3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.62%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -11.85%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-23 14:49
1xBet3.09I 32.36%NM 30.86%EV -5.93%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.41%EV -5.35%E -2.55%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.72%EV -1.57%E -0.390%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 14:09
TABtouch3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -7.14%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.28%EV -8.96%E -4.43%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -9.40%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-23 14:09
Virgin Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -7.14%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.86%E -4.93%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -10.63%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 14:09
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -7.14%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -9.86%E -4.93%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -10.63%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 14:09
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -5.35%E -2.55%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -2.06%E -0.515%K -0.686%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-28 14:07
Unibet (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 14:18
LeoVegas3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.53%EV -11.21%E -5.69%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -10.63%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-23 14:09
Marathon Bet2.99I 33.44%NM 31.17%EV -8.97%E -3.00%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.17%EV -4.90%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.66%EV -7.45%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-25 15:00
GTbets2.97I 33.67%NM 31.80%EV -9.58%E -3.23%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.93%EV -3.10%E -1.44%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.28%EV -4.75%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-25 14:50
Codere (IT)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV -10.19%E -3.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.37%EV -9.86%E -4.93%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -6.96%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-23 14:09
PMU (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 29.77%EV -10.19%E -3.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.50%EV -13.01%E -6.74%K -13.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.74%EV -13.08%E -3.68%K -5.13%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-23 14:09
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -11.71%E -4.04%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -5.35%E -2.55%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.85%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-25 15:00
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -11.71%E -4.04%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -9.86%E -4.93%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-23 14:29
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -11.71%E -4.04%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -9.86%E -4.93%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.96%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-26 14:19
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -12.32%E -4.28%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.61%E -3.71%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -2.06%E -0.515%K -0.686%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-23 14:29
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 31.17%EV -12.32%E -4.28%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.89%EV -9.86%E -4.93%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-27 14:10
Winamax (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -14.76%E -5.27%K -8.20%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.50%EV -13.47%E -7.01%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.30%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-23 14:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.53%EV -14.76%E -5.27%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.75%EV -9.86%E -4.93%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.72%EV -21.65%E -6.76%K -9.84%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-27 14:00
BoyleSports2.70I 37.04%NM 31.61%EV -17.80%E -6.59%K -10.47%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.68%EV -13.92%E -7.29%K -15.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -11.85%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%17.2%2026-05-23 14:29
Winamax (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 31.13%EV -17.80%E -6.59%K -10.47%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 45.19%EV -16.17%E -8.69%K -18.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.68%EV -13.08%E -3.68%K -5.13%G +0.000%19.0%2026-05-23 14:09
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets2.88I 34.72%NM 30.69%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.09%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%13.1%2026-05-23 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.09I 91.74%NM 45.98%2.00I 50.00%NM 25.06%1.73I 57.80%NM 28.97%99.5%2026-05-28 16:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 45.98%2.00I 50.00%NM 25.06%1.73I 57.80%NM 28.97%99.5%2026-05-28 16:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 39.22%2.00I 50.00%NM 20.39%1.01I 99.01%NM 40.39%145.2%2026-05-28 17:39