Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lillestrom v Vålerenga

Inicio: 2026-09-12 14:01 UTC

Final: Lillestrom 2–0 Vålerenga

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lillestrom (Local)

Predicción 50.53%1.98momio equitativo
EV -5.01%
Ventaja -2.67%
Kelly -5.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.39%50.57%50.52%51.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.701.831.831.8858.82%54.66%54.64%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Vålerenga (Visitante)

Predicción 26.12%3.83momio equitativo
EV +0.049%
Ventaja +0.013%
Kelly +0.017%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.11%26.06%26.11%27.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.503.503.8331.25%28.54%28.57%26.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.35%4.28momio equitativo
EV -1.92%
Ventaja -0.457%
Kelly -0.600%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.37%23.38%23.37%24.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.653.893.854.2027.40%25.71%25.97%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Lillestrom (Local): 50.53%; Vålerenga (Visitante): 26.12%; Empate: 23.35%. Para Vålerenga (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.828. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.830, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.049%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.11%EV +0.049%E +0.013%K +0.017%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.46%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-06 20:45
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.51%EV -2.56%E -0.687%K -0.939%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.04%EV -3.55%E -0.861%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 22:25
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.30%EV -6.02%E -3.24%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.65%EV -2.82%E -0.759%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.05%EV -3.32%E -0.802%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 17:05
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.09%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -3.35%E -0.905%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 22:20
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.09%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -3.35%E -0.905%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 22:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -8.04%E -4.42%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.65%EV -4.91%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.05%EV -5.42%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 17:00
GTbets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.42%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.12%EV -5.70%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.46%EV -6.12%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 00:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 14:00
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 04:10
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 00:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.45%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 13:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.45%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 13:10
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -10.57%E -5.97%K -13.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 14:35
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.56%EV -5.01%E -2.67%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -7.27%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.600%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 14:05
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -5.52%E -2.95%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:35
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -4.26%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 15:23
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 12:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-07 16:30
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.93%EV -6.53%E -3.53%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.39%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 14:10
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 16:50
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 21:24
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 21:54
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-07 14:15
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.44%EV -8.04%E -4.42%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 15:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.13%EV -8.55%E -4.72%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-05 23:05
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 15:25
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 15:25
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.66%EV -7.54%E -4.12%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 14:40
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.47%EV -8.55%E -4.72%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -13.60%E -3.67%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -13.60%E -3.67%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-07 14:09
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -13.60%E -3.67%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-07 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -13.60%E -3.67%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-07 14:09
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -13.60%E -3.67%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-07 14:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.35%EV -14.11%E -8.30%K -20.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.68%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.97%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-09 06:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.31%EV -10.07%E -5.65%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -8.93%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 15:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.39%EV -9.56%E -5.34%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -14.76%E -4.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-05 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.39%EV -9.56%E -5.34%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -14.76%E -4.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.39%EV -9.56%E -5.34%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%EV -14.76%E -4.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.81%EV -11.08%E -6.29%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.02%EV -14.76%E -4.04%K -5.57%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-07 22:30
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -9.05%E -5.03%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-09 14:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.24%EV -11.08%E -6.29%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 15:15
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.10%EV -12.59%E -7.28%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -16.41%E -5.13%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.81%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-09 04:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.12%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%3.5%2026-09-09 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.12%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%3.5%2026-09-09 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.12%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.47%3.5%2026-09-09 16:36
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 51.08%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%4.7%2026-09-09 16:30