La escuela de los momios

Lillestrom v KFUM

Inicio: 2026-07-18 14:00 UTC

Final: Lillestrom 2–1 KFUM

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Lillestrom (Local)

Predicción 58.12%1.72momio equitativo
EV -4.11%
Ventaja -2.49%
Kelly -6.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.86%58.12%58.11%59.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.531.601.601.6565.36%62.46%62.50%60.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

KFUM (Visitante)

Predicción 19.06%5.25momio equitativo
EV +3.88%
Ventaja +0.711%
Kelly +0.871%
Crecimiento +0.034%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.82%19.08%19.11%20.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.304.754.705.4523.26%21.05%21.28%18.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.82%4.38momio equitativo
EV -1.17%
Ventaja -0.270%
Kelly -0.351%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.04%22.81%22.78%23.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.753.973.954.3326.67%25.16%25.32%23.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.63I 61.35%NM 59.59%EV -5.27%E -3.23%K -8.37%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.82%EV +3.88%E +0.711%K +0.871%G +0.034%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV -1.85%E -0.431%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-18 13:40
NordicBet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.10%EV -7.02%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV +1.02%E +0.192%K +0.236%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -6.42%E -1.57%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 13:55
Betsson1.60I 62.50%NM 59.10%EV -7.02%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV +1.02%E +0.192%K +0.236%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -6.42%E -1.57%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 13:55
Pinnacle1.61I 62.11%NM 59.58%EV -6.43%E -4.00%K -10.55%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.27%EV +0.063%E +0.012%K +0.015%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.15%EV -1.17%E -0.270%K -0.351%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 13:55
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 58.50%EV -7.60%E -4.78%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.24%EV -2.80%E -0.548%K -0.682%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-18 13:45
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -4.14%E -0.985%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-18 13:55
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -6.42%E -1.57%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 13:10
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-18 09:59
Marathon Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 58.62%EV -7.60%E -4.78%K -12.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -6.42%E -1.57%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 13:40
Bet Victor1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -9.92%E -6.40%K -18.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-18 13:53
betano_uk1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -9.92%E -6.40%K -18.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-18 13:54
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -9.92%E -6.40%K -18.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -4.70%E -0.940%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -12.12%E -3.15%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-18 13:55
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -6.61%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.14%E -0.985%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 13:55
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -6.61%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.14%E -0.985%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 13:55
BetAnything1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -6.61%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.14%E -0.985%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-18 13:55
Bovada1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -6.61%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-18 13:55
SportsBet1.58I 63.29%NM 57.88%EV -8.18%E -5.18%K -14.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.66%EV -6.61%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-18 13:45
BetUS1.59I 62.89%NM 57.85%EV -7.60%E -4.78%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -8.51%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-18 13:45
William Hill1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -7.02%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -8.51%E -1.77%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-18 12:10
GTbets1.63I 61.35%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.23%K -8.37%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.39%EV -8.89%E -1.86%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-18 12:05
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 58.06%EV -6.43%E -4.00%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -9.47%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -4.14%E -0.985%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 13:10
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -9.47%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-18 13:10
PointsBet (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -9.47%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-18 13:15
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 58.20%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -9.47%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.56%EV -7.56%E -1.87%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 13:55
Everygame1.57I 63.69%NM 57.70%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.07%EV -9.47%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-18 13:45
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -9.47%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -13.27%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-18 13:15
Codere (IT)1.58I 63.29%NM 57.60%EV -8.18%E -5.18%K -14.10%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%EV -10.42%E -2.22%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 13:55
Unibet (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.21%EV -11.08%E -7.24%K -20.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.95%EV -10.42%E -2.22%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-18 13:54
Betclic (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 57.89%EV -9.34%E -5.99%K -16.68%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.42%EV -11.37%E -2.45%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.69%EV -9.16%E -2.30%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-18 13:34
Casumo1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
Unibet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
Grosvenor1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
Unibet (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
Unibet (NL)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
betPARX1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
ATG (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
Svenska Spel1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -9.84%E -2.49%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 12:40
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 13:15
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29%NM 57.84%EV -8.18%E -5.18%K -14.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.29%EV -6.42%E -1.57%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-18 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.27%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-18 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.27%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-18 13:55
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -13.27%E -3.49%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-18 13:55
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 56.82%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -12.33%E -2.68%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -14.41%E -3.84%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-18 13:45
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 56.02%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -14.23%E -3.16%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 12:40
Virgin Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -14.23%E -3.16%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -12.12%E -3.15%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 12:40
LiveScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -14.23%E -3.16%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -12.12%E -3.15%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 12:40
Bet Right1.58I 63.29%NM 56.42%EV -8.18%E -5.18%K -14.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.81%EV -14.23%E -3.16%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -14.41%E -3.84%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-18 13:15
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -7.02%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -16.14%E -3.67%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -14.41%E -3.84%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-18 13:10
PMU (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.35%EV -9.34%E -5.99%K -16.68%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.21%EV -17.09%E -3.93%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -14.41%E -3.84%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-18 12:40
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 57.61%EV -11.08%E -7.24%K -20.91%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.36%EV -17.47%E -4.04%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -8.70%E -2.18%K -2.90%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-18 13:55
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 57.04%EV -10.50%E -6.82%K -19.45%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.43%EV -18.04%E -4.20%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.53%EV -10.98%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-18 13:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.29%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.68%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%1.0%2026-07-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.29%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.68%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%1.0%2026-07-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.29%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.68%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%1.0%2026-07-18 13:55
Matchbook1.66I 60.24%NM 59.62%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.36%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-07-18 13:55
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.07%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%2.6%2026-07-18 13:55