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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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KFUM v Aalesund

2026-09-13 15:00 UTC — Eliteserien - Norway

Resultado del partido

35 corredores (11 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

KFUM (Local)

Predicción 40.88%2.45momio equitativo
EV -4.35%
Ventaja -1.86%
Kelly -3.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.35%41.23%40.92%44.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.972.162.122.3450.76%46.39%47.17%42.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Aalesund (Visitante)

Predicción 34.10%2.93momio equitativo
EV +9.12%
Ventaja +2.85%
Kelly +4.15%
Crecimiento +0.378%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.18%33.65%34.16%34.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.862.783.2040.00%34.95%35.97%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.02%4.00momio equitativo
EV -3.42%
Ventaja -0.885%
Kelly -1.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.24%25.12%24.93%26.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.583.603.8630.30%27.90%27.78%25.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: KFUM (Local): 40.88%; Aalesund (Visitante): 34.10%; Empate: 25.02%. Para Aalesund (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.93. 14 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.20, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +9.12%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (35 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -14.98%E -7.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV +9.12%E +2.85%K +4.15%G +0.378%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -14.98%E -7.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV +9.12%E +2.85%K +4.15%G +0.378%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:30
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -14.98%E -7.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV +9.12%E +2.85%K +4.15%G +0.378%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -14.98%E -7.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV +9.12%E +2.85%K +4.15%G +0.378%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -14.98%E -7.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV +9.12%E +2.85%K +4.15%G +0.378%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:30
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -14.98%E -7.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV +9.12%E +2.85%K +4.15%G +0.378%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -14.98%E -7.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV +9.12%E +2.85%K +4.15%G +0.378%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -14.98%E -7.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV +9.12%E +2.85%K +4.15%G +0.378%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:30
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.87%EV -17.43%E -8.63%K -17.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV +5.71%E +1.84%K +2.72%G +0.155%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 15:30
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.87%EV -17.43%E -8.63%K -17.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV +5.71%E +1.84%K +2.72%G +0.155%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 15:30
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.73%EV -18.25%E -9.12%K -18.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.33%EV +4.01%E +1.31%K +1.95%G +0.078%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -13.67%E -3.96%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 15:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.60%EV -19.06%E -9.63%K -19.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV +2.30%E +0.768%K +1.15%G +0.027%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.93%E -4.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-06 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.60%EV -19.06%E -9.63%K -19.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV +2.30%E +0.768%K +1.15%G +0.027%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.93%E -4.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-06 15:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.72%EV -19.47%E -9.88%K -20.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV +2.30%E +0.768%K +1.15%G +0.027%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.91%EV -14.93%E -4.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-06 15:30
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -2.81%E -0.987%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 16:40
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -2.81%E -0.987%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 16:40
1xBet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.77%EV -4.35%E -1.86%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.19%EV -4.86%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.04%EV -4.67%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 16:05
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.06%EV -5.16%E -2.23%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.26%EV -5.20%E -1.87%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.68%EV -3.42%E -0.885%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 16:25
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 16:40
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.03%E -3.57%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -6.22%E -2.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.74%EV -6.39%E -2.79%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.18%EV -6.90%E -2.53%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.08%EV -6.92%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 15:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.03%E -3.57%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 15:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -8.03%E -3.57%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 19:20
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -8.03%E -3.57%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 16:45
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -8.03%E -3.57%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -7.93%E -2.94%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 16:20
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.03%E -3.57%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.44%EV -9.63%E -3.63%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -8.67%E -2.38%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 15:35
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.42%EV -8.03%E -3.57%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -9.63%E -3.63%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 15:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.88%EV -9.25%E -4.17%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -9.63%E -3.63%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -8.67%E -2.38%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 15:30
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.67%EV -8.03%E -3.57%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.93%EV -10.66%E -4.07%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -6.17%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 16:15
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.80%EV -10.07%E -4.58%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.26%EV -10.66%E -4.07%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.39%EV -13.34%E -6.29%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.75%EV -11.34%E -4.36%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 24.86%EV -11.67%E -3.31%K -4.61%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-06 15:29
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.35%EV -12.11%E -5.63%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.36%EV -11.34%E -4.36%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.29%EV -17.43%E -5.28%K -7.58%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-06 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.55%EV -14.16%E -6.74%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.22%EV -13.04%E -5.11%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-06 15:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.96%EV -14.16%E -6.74%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.73%EV -13.04%E -5.11%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.30%EV -14.93%E -4.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-06 15:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.13%EV -14.16%E -6.74%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.55%EV -14.75%E -5.90%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.33%EV -11.17%E -3.15%K -4.38%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-06 15:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 40.76%2.54I 39.37%NM 33.70%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.55%16.8%2026-09-06 15:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-06 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-06 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-09-06 17:50
Arbitraje (8 combinaciones) +0.11%1xBet 2.34 (42.8%) / BetRivers 3.20 (31.3%) / Pinnacle 3.86 (25.9%)Ver las 8 combinaciones
KFUM (Local)Aalesund (Visitante)EmpateMargen
1xBet🎯 2.34 (42.8%)BetRivers🎯 3.20 (31.3%)Pinnacle🎯 3.86 (25.9%)+0.108%
1xBet🎯 2.34 (42.8%)Unibet (SE)🎯 3.20 (31.3%)Pinnacle🎯 3.86 (25.9%)+0.108%
1xBet🎯 2.34 (42.8%)Casumo🎯 3.20 (31.3%)Pinnacle🎯 3.86 (25.9%)+0.108%
1xBet🎯 2.34 (42.8%)Unibet (NL)🎯 3.20 (31.3%)Pinnacle🎯 3.86 (25.9%)+0.108%
1xBet🎯 2.34 (42.8%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 3.20 (31.3%)Pinnacle🎯 3.86 (25.9%)+0.108%
1xBet🎯 2.34 (42.8%)betPARX🎯 3.20 (31.3%)Pinnacle🎯 3.86 (25.9%)+0.108%
1xBet🎯 2.34 (42.8%)ATG (SE)🎯 3.20 (31.3%)Pinnacle🎯 3.86 (25.9%)+0.108%
1xBet🎯 2.34 (42.8%)Svenska Spel🎯 3.20 (31.3%)Pinnacle🎯 3.86 (25.9%)+0.108%