Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

HamKam v Molde

Inicio: 2026-09-13 15:00 UTC

Final: HamKam 1–5 Molde

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

HamKam (Local)

Predicción 21.21%4.71momio equitativo
EV -1.37%
Ventaja -0.295%
Kelly -0.376%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.00%21.24%21.17%22.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.264.204.6526.32%23.45%23.81%21.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Molde (Visitante)

Predicción 57.06%1.75momio equitativo
EV -0.716%
Ventaja -0.411%
Kelly -0.967%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.33%56.98%57.08%58.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.641.631.7464.52%61.00%61.35%57.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.73%4.60momio equitativo
EV -0.041%
Ventaja -0.009%
Kelly -0.011%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.69%21.78%21.75%23.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.854.144.104.6025.97%24.14%24.39%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: HamKam (Local): 21.21%; Molde (Visitante): 57.06%; Empate: 21.73%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.602. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.600, con un valor esperado de -0.041%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 20.85%EV -1.37%E -0.295%K -0.376%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.07%EV -4.71%E -2.82%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.08%EV -0.041%E -0.009%K -0.011%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-13 13:26
Pinnacle🎯4.62I 21.65%NM 20.87%EV -2.01%E -0.435%K -0.555%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.74%EV -4.71%E -2.82%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.38%EV -2.00%E -0.443%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-13 14:45
NordicBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.94%EV -5.85%E -3.55%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.64%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 14:36
Betsson🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.94%EV -5.85%E -3.55%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.64%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 14:36
Tipico (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -2.43%E -0.529%K -0.676%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -10.42%E -6.63%K -18.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 13:45
1xBet🎯4.58I 21.83%NM 20.74%EV -2.86%E -0.624%K -0.799%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.54%EV -4.14%E -2.46%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.72%EV -9.17%E -2.19%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 14:50
DraftKings🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.85%E -3.55%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -2.21%E -0.492%K -0.633%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 14:30
LowVig.ag🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.71%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -4.39%E -0.997%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.71%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -4.39%E -0.997%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 14:36
BetAnything🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.71%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -4.39%E -0.997%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 14:31
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -4.56%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.28%EV -7.56%E -4.67%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 07:40
GTbets🎯4.43I 22.57%NM 21.81%EV -6.04%E -1.36%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.52%EV -0.716%E -0.411%K -0.967%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.68%EV -7.43%E -1.74%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-13 07:40
Bovada🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -6.42%E -3.92%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 14:00
BetUS🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -6.42%E -3.92%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 14:01
Marathon Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -5.91%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 14:55
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -6.68%E -1.52%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.13%E -5.05%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -4.39%E -0.997%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 13:54
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.55%EV -7.74%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.13%EV -4.71%E -2.82%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 04:50
PlayUp🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -7.74%E -1.78%K -2.31%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.61%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.55%EV -16.34%E -4.24%K -5.73%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 14:45
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.50%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.82%EV -8.13%E -5.05%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -2.21%E -0.492%K -0.633%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 12:00
betano_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.07%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -8.13%E -5.05%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 14:40
Bet Victor🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.07%EV -8.16%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -8.13%E -5.05%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 14:39
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -8.80%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.85%E -3.55%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 06:05
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -8.80%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.73%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.76%EV -7.65%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 14:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -9.86%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -5.85%E -3.55%K -9.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -7.65%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 14:55
BetRivers🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -2.43%E -1.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 06:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -2.43%E -1.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 06:15
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -2.43%E -1.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 06:15
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -2.43%E -1.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 06:15
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -2.43%E -1.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 06:15
betPARX🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -2.43%E -1.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 06:15
Svenska Spel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -2.43%E -1.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 06:15
ATG (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.82%EV -2.43%E -1.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 06:15
LeoVegas🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.85%EV -6.42%E -3.92%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 12:05
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -7.56%E -4.67%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 14:55
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -7.56%E -4.67%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -7.56%E -4.67%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 14:50
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -7.56%E -4.67%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 14:35
Codere (IT)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.69%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 04:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.70%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 07:40
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.70%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 07:40
Neds🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.70%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 07:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -8.70%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 07:40
Betclic (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.77%EV -10.42%E -6.63%K -18.27%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.01%EV -11.99%E -2.96%K -3.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 14:34
Unibet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -10.92%E -2.60%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.77%EV -10.99%E -7.04%K -19.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-13 14:35
Winamax (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -13.04%E -3.18%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -7.56%E -4.67%K -12.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.73%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 04:50
Bet Right🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -13.04%E -3.18%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -8.70%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 14:55
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -15.16%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.33%EV -5.28%E -3.18%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-08 06:15
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -15.16%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.33%EV -5.28%E -3.18%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-08 06:15
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -15.16%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.48%EV -5.85%E -3.55%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-08 06:15
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -15.16%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -8.70%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 04:50
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -15.16%E -3.79%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -8.70%E -5.44%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 13:50
PMU (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -16.22%E -4.11%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.47%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -16.34%E -4.24%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 06:15
LiveScore Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -16.22%E -4.11%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.47%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -16.34%E -4.24%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 06:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -16.22%E -4.11%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.47%EV -6.99%E -4.29%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.06%EV -16.34%E -4.24%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-08 06:15
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -19.40%E -5.11%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 55.70%EV -11.56%E -7.46%K -21.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.58%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-13 14:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.10%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.8%2026-09-13 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.10%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.8%2026-09-13 14:41
Matchbook◎4.70I 21.28%NM 21.10%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%0.8%2026-09-13 14:46
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.46%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.46%1.3%2026-09-13 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.46%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.46%1.3%2026-09-13 14:55