Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fredrikstad FK v Kristiansund BK

Inicio: 2026-08-16 17:15 UTC

Final: Fredrikstad FK 1–0 Kristiansund BK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fredrikstad FK (Local)

Predicción 53.92%1.85momio equitativo
EV -0.779%
Ventaja -0.423%
Kelly -0.927%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.84

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.05%53.84%53.85%55.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.661.741.721.8460.24%57.55%58.14%54.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kristiansund BK (Visitante)

Predicción 21.54%4.64momio equitativo
EV +2.97%
Ventaja +0.621%
Kelly +0.785%
Crecimiento +0.023%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.12%21.58%21.57%24.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.654.174.204.7827.40%23.98%23.81%20.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.53%4.08momio equitativo
EV -1.37%
Ventaja -0.341%
Kelly -0.454%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.89%24.58%24.58%26.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.453.703.704.0228.99%27.00%27.03%24.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Fredrikstad FK (Local): 53.92%; Kristiansund BK (Visitante): 21.54%; Empate: 24.53%. Para Kristiansund BK (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.64. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.78, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.97%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.80%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 20.19%EV +2.97%E +0.621%K +0.785%G +0.023%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.01%EV -1.37%E -0.341%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-16 17:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.31%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV +1.24%E +0.265%K +0.336%G +0.004%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -5.54%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 17:14
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.31%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV +1.24%E +0.265%K +0.336%G +0.004%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -5.54%E -1.44%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-16 17:10
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.69%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.21%EV +0.167%E +0.036%K +0.046%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 17:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.10%EV -7.25%E -4.22%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -0.910%E -0.198%K -0.253%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -4.32%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 17:09
BetAnything🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.10%EV -7.25%E -4.22%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -0.910%E -0.198%K -0.253%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -4.32%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 17:09
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -0.910%E -0.198%K -0.253%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -4.32%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 17:14
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.02%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.88%EV -1.77%E -0.389%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -3.09%E -0.782%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 17:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.59%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.98%EV -4.14%E -0.931%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.44%EV -6.28%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 17:14
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.05%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.89%EV -4.32%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-16 16:34
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -4.01%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 17:04
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-16 17:14
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.73%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -4.32%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 17:05
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -9.22%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 17:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 17:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.68%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%EV -6.30%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 17:05
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 17:05
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -8.00%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 17:14
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 17:14
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 17:14
GTbets🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.34%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -7.37%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.74%EV -10.20%E -2.79%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-16 16:44
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.95%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -7.37%E -1.71%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.00%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-16 17:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.18%EV -7.25%E -4.22%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -8.45%E -1.99%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -4.32%E -1.11%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-16 17:09
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.71%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.23%EV -8.45%E -1.99%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.06%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 17:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.78%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.13%EV -8.45%E -1.99%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.09%EV -12.17%E -3.40%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-16 17:03
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.24%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -8.00%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 16:35
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -8.00%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-16 17:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.29%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-16 17:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.32%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 17:05
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.08%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -9.22%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 17:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.08%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -9.22%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.23%EV -10.49%E -6.32%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.44%EV -9.53%E -2.27%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -9.22%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-16 17:04
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -11.68%E -2.85%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -6.77%E -1.78%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 16:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.36%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -13.83%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -9.22%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 17:05
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -13.83%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 16:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -13.83%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 16:39
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -13.83%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 16:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -13.83%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 16:39
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.18%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -13.83%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -10.45%E -2.86%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 17:09
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -13.83%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-16 17:09
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -9.95%E -5.96%K -14.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -13.83%E -3.46%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-16 16:59
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.12%EV -0.779%E -0.423%K -0.927%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-16 16:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -1.32%E -0.720%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -18.14%E -4.77%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.68%E -3.24%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.05%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -21.37%E -5.86%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -15.36%E -4.45%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-16 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.05%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -21.37%E -5.86%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -15.36%E -4.45%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-16 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.05%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -21.37%E -5.86%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -15.36%E -4.45%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-16 16:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.16%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%1.3%2026-08-16 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.79%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66%1.4%2026-08-16 17:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.58%1.7%2026-08-16 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.58%1.7%2026-08-16 17:05
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.07%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.0%2026-08-16 17:05