Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Telstar v NAC Breda

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Telstar (Local)

Prediction 36.47%2.74fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.65%36.51%36.47%37.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.542.552.6643.48%39.31%39.22%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NAC Breda (Visit)

Prediction 37.10%2.70fair odd
EV +0.162%
Edge +0.060%
Kelly +0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.02%37.04%37.19%38.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.522.552.7044.44%39.64%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.43%3.78fair odd
EV +2.81%
Edge +0.723%
Kelly +0.973%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 3.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.92%26.45%26.34%27.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.523.553.8932.26%28.43%28.17%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Telstar (Local): 36.47%; NAC Breda (Visit): 37.10%; Draw: 26.43%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.17%EV -4.80%E -1.84%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.89%EV -5.03%E -1.97%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.94%EV +2.81%E +0.723%K +0.973%G +0.027%3.1%2026-02-27 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%EV -4.07%E -1.55%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%EV +0.162%E +0.060%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%EV -2.21%E -0.597%K -0.819%G +0.000%2.1%2026-02-27 18:39
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.42%EV -2.98%E -1.12%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.40%EV -3.92%E -1.51%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%EV -2.21%E -0.597%K -0.819%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-27 18:44
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.45%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.81%EV -2.21%E -0.597%K -0.819%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-27 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 37.11%EV -4.07%E -1.55%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.15%EV +0.162%E +0.060%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.74%EV -3.53%E -0.968%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-27 18:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 37.11%EV -4.07%E -1.55%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.15%EV +0.162%E +0.060%K +0.095%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.74%EV -3.53%E -0.968%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-27 18:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.99%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.29%EV -1.69%E -0.639%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.72%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-27 17:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.99%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.29%EV -1.69%E -0.639%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.72%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-27 17:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-27 18:39
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-27 18:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-27 18:39
BetUS🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.49%EV -5.90%E -2.29%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.36%EV -6.52%E -2.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 18:54
BetAnything🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.49%EV -5.90%E -2.29%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.36%EV -6.52%E -2.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 18:54
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 15:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -12.46%E -5.19%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.70%EV -11.71%E -4.92%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -4.85%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-27 18:39
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.32%EV -4.44%E -1.69%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -4.29%E -1.66%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 18:39
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.32%EV -4.44%E -1.69%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.88%EV -4.29%E -1.66%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.20%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.07%EV -2.44%E -0.926%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-27 18:39
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 18:39
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 18:39
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 18:39
Bovada🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.27%EV -5.53%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.27%EV -6.52%E -2.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-27 18:51
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.43%EV -6.63%E -2.59%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.89%EV -10.64%E -4.34%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -6.18%E -1.74%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-27 18:39
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -1.69%E -0.639%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-27 17:19
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:54
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 18:39
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 18:39
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 18:39
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-27 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-27 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.50%E -2.14%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-27 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -9.55%E -3.85%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-27 18:39
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.45%EV -13.94%E -6.01%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.86%EV -8.82%E -2.56%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-27 18:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-27 18:39
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 17:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 10:34
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -5.17%E -1.99%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-27 18:39
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -10.64%E -4.34%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -10.64%E -4.34%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -12.82%E -5.46%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -12.46%E -5.19%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.45%EV -12.82%E -5.46%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -10.14%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-27 18:39
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -12.46%E -5.19%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.61%EV -13.94%E -6.01%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.04%EV -11.46%E -3.42%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.6%2026-02-27 18:43
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -8.82%E -3.53%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -12.78%E -3.87%K -5.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-27 18:37
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -10.64%E -4.34%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -14.10%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-27 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.18%EV -16.11%E -7.00%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 36.98%EV -16.53%E -7.35%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.84%EV -18.07%E -5.83%K -8.60%G +0.000%20.2%2026-02-27 18:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.29%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.83%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-02-27 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.46%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.73%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-02-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.46%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.73%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-02-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.63%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.63%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-02-27 18:54
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.53%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.81%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66%1.4%2026-02-27 18:54