Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Telstar v Groningen

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 16:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Telstar (Local)

Prediction 35.83%2.79fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.534%
Kelly -0.839%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.17%35.84%35.81%36.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.602.602.7541.67%38.48%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Groningen (Visit)

Prediction 38.43%2.60fair odd
EV -0.086%
Edge -0.033%
Kelly -0.054%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.70%38.42%38.47%39.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.422.412.6044.44%41.29%41.49%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.74%3.88fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.574%
Kelly -0.779%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.99%25.75%25.72%28.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.603.603.8033.33%27.81%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Telstar (Local): 35.83%; Groningen (Visit): 38.43%; Draw: 25.74%. For Groningen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.602. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.600, with an expected value of -0.086%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.41%EV -1.47%E -0.534%K -0.839%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.96%EV -3.93%E -1.57%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.63%EV -2.18%E -0.574%K -0.779%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-04 16:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.47%EV -1.83%E -0.667%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.26%EV -2.39%E -0.942%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.27%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 16:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.47%EV -1.83%E -0.667%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.26%EV -2.39%E -0.942%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.27%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 16:20
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.86%EV -3.26%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.12%EV -2.39%E -0.942%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.03%EV -4.24%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.26%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.93%E -1.57%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71%EV -3.47%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 16:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.26%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.93%E -1.57%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71%EV -3.47%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 16:40
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.48%EV -3.98%E -1.48%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -3.16%E -1.25%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.79%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 16:34
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.48%EV -3.98%E -1.48%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.73%EV -3.16%E -1.25%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.79%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-04 16:35
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 36.30%EV -4.33%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%EV -0.086%E -0.033%K -0.054%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.41%EV -5.53%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 16:39
BetUS🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.23%EV -4.33%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.35%EV -8.16%E -3.41%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 12:29
BetAnything🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.23%EV -4.33%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.35%EV -8.16%E -3.41%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 12:30
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.86%EV -5.05%E -1.91%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.79%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.47%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-01 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -5.05%E -1.91%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 16:40
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -5.05%E -1.91%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-02 12:30
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -5.05%E -1.91%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -6.04%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 16:39
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.05%E -1.91%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.72%EV -6.62%E -2.72%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -6.04%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 16:40
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.05%E -1.91%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.72%EV -6.62%E -2.72%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -6.04%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 16:40
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.05%E -1.91%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 08:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.05%E -1.91%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 16:14
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.68%EV -5.77%E -2.19%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.61%EV -6.62%E -2.72%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -6.04%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 16:38
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.00%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 12:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.00%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.50%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 12:30
Bovada🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.86%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.04%EV -5.08%E -2.06%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.72%EV -6.48%E -2.48%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.53%EV -7.00%E -2.89%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -6.81%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 16:30
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -3.93%E -1.57%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.47%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-04 16:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.22%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.98%EV -4.70%E -1.89%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -6.04%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 15:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -3.93%E -1.57%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 15:34
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 15:19
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:15
Everygame🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 16:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-01 22:10
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -6.04%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 05:55
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 16:14
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -5.85%E -2.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 16:09
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 15:09
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 16:40
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.67%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.93%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -6.84%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.67%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.93%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 16:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -8.63%E -3.39%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.71%EV -9.69%E -4.12%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -8.63%E -3.39%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.71%EV -9.69%E -4.12%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 16:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -8.63%E -3.39%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.71%EV -9.69%E -4.12%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 16:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 35.41%EV -9.71%E -3.85%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.31%EV -12.77%E -5.62%K -10.05%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.28%EV -9.13%E -2.59%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-04 16:18
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-03 23:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-03 23:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-03 23:24
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -7.77%E -3.24%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-03 23:24
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-04 16:13
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -9.90%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 16:30
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -8.54%E -3.59%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -15.05%E -4.56%K -6.54%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-04 16:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.26%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -13.54%E -6.02%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.55%EV -11.19%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-04 16:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.72%EV -12.22%E -4.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.29%EV -9.69%E -4.12%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.99%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 15:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.29%EV -12.22%E -4.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.66%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-04 15:34
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.01%EV -12.22%E -4.99%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.03%EV -10.85%E -4.67%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.95%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-04 16:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -14.01%E -5.84%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -11.61%E -5.05%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -22.77%E -7.59%K -11.39%G +0.000%18.5%2026-04-04 14:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.05%1.0%2026-04-04 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.05%1.0%2026-04-04 16:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.05%1.0%2026-04-04 16:35
Matchbook2.76I 36.23%NM 35.87%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.05%1.0%2026-04-04 16:40
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 36.04%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.98%1.3%2026-04-04 16:00
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.27%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%2.1%2026-04-04 16:15