Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.60
assuming max odds 5.60
assuming max odds 5.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 62.02%; SC Telstar (Visit): 17.94%; Draw: 20.05%. For SC Telstar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.58. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.442%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%EV +0.442%E +0.079%K +0.096%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%EV +0.442%E +0.079%K +0.096%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.51%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.30%EV +0.442%E +0.079%K +0.096%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.19%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-02 18:06 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-02 18:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.64%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV +0.230%E +0.046%K +0.057%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.95%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.55%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 18:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.88%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.53%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.18%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.50%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.32%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-02 18:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.18%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.50%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.32%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-02 18:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.04%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.50%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.19%EV -6.35%E -4.21%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.19%EV -6.35%E -4.21%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.35%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 18:06 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.93%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.82%EV -5.78%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 18:36 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.80%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 5.36I 18.66%NM 17.99%EV -3.86%E -0.721%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 4.77I 20.96%NM 20.21%EV -4.38%E -0.918%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-02 18:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.10%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.81%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -5.78%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.97%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.26%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.87%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.87%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.18%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.18%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 17:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.84%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV -5.78%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-02 18:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.87%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.22%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.78%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.18%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.06%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.67%EV -0.771%E -0.482%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.63%EV -6.55%E -1.26%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.70%EV -5.98%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.16%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 18:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.16%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.14%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-02 18:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.14%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-02 18:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.14%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-02 18:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.24%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.78%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 05:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 06:01 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.91%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.50%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.50%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.81%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -10.69%E -7.43%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-02 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.88%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.56%EV -12.11%E -2.47%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.56%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-02 18:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.54%EV -9.45%E -6.48%K -20.55%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -13.91%E -2.90%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.75%EV -8.79%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.25%EV -10.69%E -7.43%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -13.91%E -2.90%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.37%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-02 18:36 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.62%EV -11.31%E -7.91%K -26.31%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.36%EV -13.91%E -2.90%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.03%EV -11.80%E -2.68%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.61%EV -10.69%E -7.43%K -24.30%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -14.80%E -3.12%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.71%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.29%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.56%EV -15.70%E -3.34%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.58%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -19.29%E -4.29%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.49%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-02 18:50 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.55% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.09% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.36% | 0.2% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78% | 1.1% | 2026-05-02 17:21 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.51% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.09% | 1.6% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.74% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.87% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.39% | 2.2% | 2026-05-02 18:55 |