La escuela de los momios

NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar

Inicio: 2026-05-02 19:00 UTC

Final: NEC Nijmegen 1–1 SC Telstar

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Predicción 62.02%1.61momio equitativo
EV -0.771%
Ventaja -0.482%
Kelly -1.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.26%61.95%61.92%63.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.511.511.6069.93%66.32%66.23%62.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Telstar (Visitante)

Predicción 17.94%5.58momio equitativo
EV +0.442%
Ventaja +0.079%
Kelly +0.096%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.99%17.99%18.01%19.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.505.195.255.6022.22%19.27%19.05%17.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.05%4.99momio equitativo
EV +0.230%
Ventaja +0.046%
Kelly +0.057%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.91%20.06%20.07%21.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.334.614.605.0023.09%21.71%21.74%20.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%EV +0.442%E +0.079%K +0.096%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 17:45
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%EV +0.442%E +0.079%K +0.096%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Unibet (NL)1.55I 64.52%NM 62.51%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.30%EV +0.442%E +0.079%K +0.096%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.19%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 18:06
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-02 18:54
Coolbet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.64%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.05%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 18:50
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV +0.230%E +0.046%K +0.057%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 18:50
Fanatics1.50I 66.67%NM 62.95%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 18:50
Tipico (DE)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.55%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -1.35%E -0.246%K -0.300%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:35
Unibet (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.88%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.53%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 18:05
NordicBet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.18%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.50%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.32%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 18:45
Betsson1.52I 65.79%NM 62.18%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.50%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.32%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 18:45
Unibet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.04%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.50%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Casumo1.51I 66.23%NM 62.19%EV -6.35%E -4.21%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 17:45
betPARX1.51I 66.23%NM 62.19%EV -6.35%E -4.21%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 17:45
BetRivers1.50I 66.67%NM 62.35%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 18:06
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.93%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -3.15%E -0.582%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.82%EV -5.78%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 18:36
Pinnacle1.56I 64.10%NM 61.80%EV -3.25%E -2.08%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.36I 18.66%NM 17.99%EV -3.86%E -0.721%K -0.886%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 20.21%EV -4.38%E -0.918%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 18:45
BetAnything1.52I 65.79%NM 62.10%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.81%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -5.78%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 18:55
Bovada1.52I 65.79%NM 61.97%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.77%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.26%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 18:55
Grosvenor1.50I 66.67%NM 61.87%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 17:45
TABtouch1.50I 66.67%NM 61.87%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.51%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 17:45
LeoVegas1.48I 67.57%NM 62.18%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 17:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.18%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -4.94%E -0.932%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 17:45
DraftKings1.53I 65.36%NM 61.84%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV -5.78%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 18:53
BetUS1.52I 65.79%NM 61.87%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.22%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 18:50
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -5.78%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:50
Marathon Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.18%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.06%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:55
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 18:55
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -5.84%E -1.11%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 18:50
1xBet1.60I 62.50%NM 60.67%EV -0.771%E -0.482%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.63%EV -6.55%E -1.26%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.70%EV -5.98%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-02 18:50
LowVig.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.16%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 18:49
BetOnline.ag1.54I 64.94%NM 61.31%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.16%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-02 18:50
PMU (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 62.14%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 18:05
Virgin Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 62.14%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 18:05
LiveScore Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 62.14%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -6.73%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 18:05
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.24%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.98%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.78%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 05:55
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -4.49%E -2.92%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.87%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -4.78%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 06:01
Codere (IT)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.72%EV -3.87%E -2.50%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 18:55
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 60.91%EV -5.73%E -3.77%K -11.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 18:55
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 61.50%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 18:50
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.50%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 18:35
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:50
William Hill1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:50
Betway1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:50
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:50
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -5.11%E -3.34%K -9.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:50
Bet Right1.48I 67.57%NM 61.81%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.89%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 18:50
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -10.69%E -7.43%K -24.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.32%E -2.06%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-02 18:35
Betclic (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 61.88%EV -8.83%E -6.01%K -18.79%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.56%EV -12.11%E -2.47%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.56%EV -6.79%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:54
Unibet (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 61.54%EV -9.45%E -6.48%K -20.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.72%EV -13.91%E -2.90%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.75%EV -8.79%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 18:50
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 61.25%EV -10.69%E -7.43%K -24.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -13.91%E -2.90%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.37%EV -13.20%E -3.05%K -3.96%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-02 18:36
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 61.62%EV -11.31%E -7.91%K -26.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.36%EV -13.91%E -2.90%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.03%EV -11.80%E -2.68%K -3.47%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-02 18:55
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 61.61%EV -10.69%E -7.43%K -24.30%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -14.80%E -3.12%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.71%EV -9.79%E -2.18%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 18:55
Winamax (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.29%EV -6.97%E -4.65%K -13.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.56%EV -15.70%E -3.34%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -3.78%E -0.787%K -0.995%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 18:50
Winamax (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.58%EV -8.21%E -5.55%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -19.29%E -4.29%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.49%EV -7.79%E -1.69%K -2.16%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-02 18:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 63.55%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.09%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.36%0.2%2026-05-02 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.1%2026-05-02 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.1%2026-05-02 18:55
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78%1.1%2026-05-02 17:21
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 63.51%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.41%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.09%1.6%2026-05-02 18:55
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 62.74%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.87%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.39%2.2%2026-05-02 18:55