Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen v Heerenveen

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 11:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Prediction 56.23%1.78fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.56%56.18%56.23%57.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.661.671.7366.67%60.27%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Heerenveen (Visit)

Prediction 22.17%4.51fair odd
EV +3.11%
Edge +0.668%
Kelly +0.852%
Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 4.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.48%22.19%22.23%23.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.184.204.6526.67%23.90%23.81%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.60%4.63fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.380%
Kelly -0.487%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.20%21.64%21.54%24.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.244.284.5528.57%23.61%23.39%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 56.23%; Heerenveen (Visit): 22.17%; Draw: 21.60%. For Heerenveen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.51. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.81%EV -7.22%E -4.38%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.51%EV +3.11%E +0.668%K +0.852%G +0.026%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV -4.97%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 11:00
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -10.04%E -6.27%K -16.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -0.218%E -0.048%K -0.062%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-22 11:00
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -7.22%E -4.38%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.29%EV -1.33%E -0.298%K -0.385%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.29%EV -3.89%E -0.874%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-22 10:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.84%EV -2.73%E -1.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -2.44%E -0.554%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.21%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.84%EV -2.73%E -1.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -2.44%E -0.554%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.21%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 11:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.82%EV -4.41%E -2.60%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -2.44%E -0.554%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.23%EV -1.73%E -0.380%K -0.487%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 11:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.82%EV -4.41%E -2.60%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.95%EV -2.44%E -0.554%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.23%EV -1.73%E -0.380%K -0.487%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.98%EV -3.29%E -1.91%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.88%EV -2.44%E -0.554%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.14%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-22 11:00
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.12%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV -2.44%E -0.554%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%EV -2.81%E -0.624%K -0.802%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 10:58
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.24%EV -8.35%E -5.12%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -2.44%E -0.554%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -6.48%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 10:59
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.46%EV -9.47%E -5.88%K -15.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -2.44%E -0.554%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 11:00
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.24%EV -3.85%E -2.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.01%EV -3.10%E -0.710%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.76%EV -4.54%E -1.03%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 11:00
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.34%EV -3.85%E -2.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.20%EV -3.77%E -0.868%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.46%EV -3.02%E -0.673%K -0.866%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-22 11:00
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.22%EV -6.66%E -4.01%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -3.99%E -0.921%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 10:00
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.54%EV -4.97%E -2.94%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.22%EV -4.65%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV -2.81%E -0.624%K -0.802%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-21 11:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.41%E -2.60%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -4.65%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 10:59
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.56%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -4.65%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -4.97%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 10:59
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.54%E -3.30%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -4.65%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 10:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.22%E -4.38%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -4.65%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 09:39
LeoVegas🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.85%EV -5.54%E -3.30%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -5.76%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -8.21%E -1.93%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 11:00
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.85%EV -5.54%E -3.30%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -5.76%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -8.21%E -1.93%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 10:59
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.85%EV -5.54%E -3.30%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -5.76%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.08%EV -8.21%E -1.93%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 11:00
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -5.76%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -8.21%E -1.93%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 11:00
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.00%EV -6.66%E -4.01%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -5.76%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 10:59
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.00%EV -6.66%E -4.01%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -5.76%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.69%EV -4.41%E -2.60%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.76%EV -6.05%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 13:05
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.98%EV -4.97%E -2.94%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -4.97%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 04:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.70%EV -4.97%E -2.94%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.89%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 13:04
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.27%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -4.97%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 04:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.27%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -4.97%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 04:19
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -5.54%E -3.30%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 10:58
BetUS🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -5.54%E -3.30%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 10:59
BetAnything🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%EV -5.54%E -3.30%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 10:59
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.08%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -6.48%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 06:33
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.22%E -4.38%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.22%E -4.38%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 10:59
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -8.91%E -5.50%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -6.87%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-22 09:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -8.35%E -5.12%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -9.09%E -2.22%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 10:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.71%EV -8.35%E -5.12%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -9.09%E -2.22%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 10:59
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.55%EV -7.22%E -4.38%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.63%EV -10.20%E -2.52%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 11:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -4.41%E -2.60%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 10:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -4.41%E -2.60%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -8.21%E -1.93%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 10:59
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 08:00
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 07:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 07:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -6.10%E -3.65%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 07:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 56.16%EV -10.60%E -6.67%K -17.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.52%EV -10.37%E -2.50%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-22 10:56
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.93%EV -8.91%E -5.50%K -14.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%EV -11.30%E -2.83%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -15.77%E -4.04%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 10:00
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.63%EV -4.41%E -2.60%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -12.41%E -3.14%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -8.21%E -1.93%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 10:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.66%EV -7.79%E -4.75%K -12.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.11%EV -12.41%E -3.14%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -7.13%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-21 13:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -11.72%E -7.47%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.27%EV -12.41%E -3.14%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.72%EV -12.53%E -3.09%K -4.11%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-22 11:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 55.87%EV -15.66%E -10.44%K -31.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.49%EV -13.52%E -3.47%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.65%EV -20.09%E -5.43%K -7.44%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-22 10:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.38%EV -11.72%E -7.47%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.88%EV -15.74%E -4.14%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.74%EV -13.61%E -3.40%K -4.54%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-22 10:59
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -8.91%E -5.50%K -14.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -16.85%E -4.49%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -9.29%E -2.21%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 10:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.04%EV -10.04%E -6.27%K -16.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -16.85%E -4.49%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.48%EV -11.45%E -2.79%K -3.69%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-21 13:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 53.56%EV -11.72%E -7.47%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.42%EV -16.85%E -4.49%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.02%EV -24.41%E -6.97%K -9.76%G +0.000%18.9%2026-03-22 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.92%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.07%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-03-22 11:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.92%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.07%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%1.0%2026-03-22 11:00
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.26%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-03-22 11:00
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.77%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.73%1.1%2026-03-22 11:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 57.60%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.52%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.89%1.5%2026-03-22 11:00
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 57.49%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.72%2.3%2026-03-22 11:00