Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen v Feyenoord

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 12:30 UTC

Final: NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Feyenoord

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Prediction 45.37%2.20fair odd
EV +8.89%
Edge +3.70%
Kelly +6.35%
Growth +0.564%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.35%45.31%45.43%46.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.082.062.4051.28%48.18%48.54%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Feyenoord (Visit)

Prediction 29.85%3.35fair odd
EV -0.907%
Edge -0.273%
Kelly -0.391%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%29.92%29.77%40.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.103.083.103.3247.62%32.43%32.26%30.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.78%4.04fair odd
EV -0.871%
Edge -0.218%
Kelly -0.290%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.72%24.77%24.80%26.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.703.704.0030.77%27.02%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 45.37%; Feyenoord (Visit): 29.85%; Draw: 24.78%. For NEC Nijmegen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.35%EV +8.89%E +3.70%K +6.35%G +0.564%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.40%EV -37.32%E -17.77%K -33.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.24%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%17.9%2026-03-22 21:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.48%EV -0.185%E -0.084%K -0.154%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%EV -3.00%E -0.922%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%EV -4.59%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.2%2026-04-12 12:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.12%EV -0.185%E -0.084%K -0.154%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -5.83%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 12:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.12%EV -0.185%E -0.084%K -0.154%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -5.83%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 12:00
Bovada🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -1.09%E -0.501%K -0.926%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -9.54%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-12 10:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.18%EV -2.45%E -1.14%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -8.31%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-12 12:00
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.08%EV -2.91%E -1.36%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -8.31%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-12 12:00
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.06%EV -3.36%E -1.58%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.62%EV -3.29%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.32%EV -6.08%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-12 12:00
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.81%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -3.00%E -0.922%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -8.31%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 12:00
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%EV -3.81%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.30%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.31%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 12:00
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%EV -3.81%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.30%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.31%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 12:00
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.16%EV -3.81%E -1.80%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.20%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -9.54%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-12 12:01
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.00%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.10%EV -0.907%E -0.273%K -0.391%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.90%EV -3.84%E -0.991%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-12 12:00
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -0.871%E -0.218%K -0.290%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -5.83%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-12 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.83%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 12:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.83%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 11:59
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.07%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 12:01
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.07%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 11:53
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.31%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 12:01
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -8.97%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -9.54%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 12:00
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -8.97%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -9.54%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 12:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.85%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.31%EV -18.82%E -6.92%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -15.74%E -4.63%K -6.56%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-12 12:00
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -8.97%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -10.78%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.25%EV -5.63%E -2.71%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.18%EV -8.97%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -10.78%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 12:00
BetUS🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.48%EV -6.08%E -2.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -7.07%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 12:00
BetAnything🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.48%EV -6.08%E -2.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.42%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -7.07%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 12:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -6.08%E -2.94%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.61%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.34%EV -8.80%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 12:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.08%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -9.54%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 12:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.08%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -9.54%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 12:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.11%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.02%E -3.39%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 12:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.11%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.02%E -3.39%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 12:01
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.11%EV -6.54%E -3.17%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.02%E -3.39%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 12:00
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.44%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -0.871%E -0.218%K -0.290%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-12 11:59
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -1.50%E -0.456%K -0.654%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -5.83%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 12:00
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.83%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 12:00
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.72%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -7.07%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 12:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.31%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-12 12:01
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -8.97%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -3.35%E -0.859%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-12 12:00
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -7.07%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 12:00
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -3.35%E -0.859%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 12:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -3.35%E -0.859%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 12:00
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -9.54%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-12 12:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.59%EV -7.90%E -3.89%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.05%EV -8.07%E -2.62%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -5.83%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-12 11:55
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.88%EV -8.35%E -4.13%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -3.00%E -0.922%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.98%EV -2.11%E -0.534%K -0.715%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-12 12:00
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.07%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-12 11:59
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 12:00
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 12:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.49%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 12:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.37%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV -11.95%E -4.05%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -5.83%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-12 12:01
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -8.31%E -2.24%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 12:00
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.78%E -3.00%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-12 12:00
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.46%E -3.49%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.44%EV -9.26%E -4.63%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.44%EV -19.41%E -7.19%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.12%EV -19.46%E -5.99%K -8.65%G +0.000%17.8%2026-04-12 07:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.95%EV -11.07%E -5.65%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.91%EV -14.93%E -5.24%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.14%EV -9.54%E -2.62%K -3.60%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-12 12:01
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -11.53%E -5.91%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.44%E -4.64%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -7.07%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-12 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 46.05%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.98%0.1%2026-04-12 12:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.97%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-04-12 12:00
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.40%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-04-12 12:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.77%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-04-12 12:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.6%2026-04-12 12:00
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 45.66%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.61%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.74%2.3%2026-04-12 12:01