Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

NAC Breda v FC Volendam

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NAC Breda (Local)

Prediction 58.15%1.72fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -4.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.87%58.17%58.04%59.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.601.611.6769.44%62.40%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Volendam (Visit)

Prediction 18.62%5.37fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +0.759%
Kelly +0.924%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.78%18.58%18.80%20.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.305.055.055.6023.26%19.81%19.80%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.23%4.30fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.575%
Kelly -0.755%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.29%23.24%23.16%25.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.973.994.2029.41%25.22%25.06%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NAC Breda (Local): 58.15%; FC Volendam (Visit): 18.62%; Draw: 23.23%. For FC Volendam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.37. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.11%EV -7.54%E -4.74%K -12.78%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV +4.25%E +0.759%K +0.924%G +0.039%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -9.39%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-21 18:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.93%EV -3.47%E -2.09%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.78%EV +2.39%E +0.434%K +0.531%G +0.013%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%EV -2.42%E -0.575%K -0.755%G +0.000%2.2%2026-02-21 18:20
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.48%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV +2.39%E +0.434%K +0.531%G +0.013%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.21%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 18:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV -3.47%E -2.09%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.95%EV +0.528%E +0.098%K +0.120%G +0.001%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-21 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.40%EV -3.47%E -2.09%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.95%EV +0.528%E +0.098%K +0.120%G +0.001%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-21 18:20
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.51%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.24%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.94%EV +0.156%E +0.029%K +0.036%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.55%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 18:50
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.07%EV -2.89%E -1.73%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.34I 18.73%NM 18.16%EV -0.589%E -0.110%K -0.136%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.77%EV -5.20%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-21 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.22%E -3.20%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.93%EV -1.33%E -0.252%K -0.310%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.55%EV -8.71%E -5.55%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -1.33%E -0.252%K -0.310%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.10%EV -3.47%E -2.09%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.37%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-21 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.10%EV -3.47%E -2.09%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.37%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.52%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-21 18:50
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.02%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.21%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -2.42%E -0.575%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 07:55
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-21 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 18:20
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 18:20
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 18:20
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-21 07:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -9.39%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 18:35
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.08%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV -3.20%E -0.615%K -0.761%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 18:50
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.08%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV -3.20%E -0.615%K -0.761%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 18:50
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.08%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%EV -3.20%E -0.615%K -0.761%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 18:50
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.39%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -3.20%E -0.615%K -0.761%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 18:20
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.39%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -3.20%E -0.615%K -0.761%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.28%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.29%EV -5.06%E -0.992%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.43%EV -7.53%E -1.89%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.62%EV -9.29%E -5.95%K -16.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.93%EV -5.06%E -0.992%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -9.39%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.44%EV -9.29%E -5.95%K -16.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -5.06%E -0.992%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -10.55%E -2.74%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.44%EV -9.29%E -5.95%K -16.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -5.06%E -0.992%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.68%EV -10.55%E -2.74%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -2.42%E -0.575%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-21 12:15
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 18:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 12:19
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 12:20
Everygame🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.49%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -9.39%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 18:30
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.97%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-21 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -10.55%E -2.74%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.71%E -5.55%K -15.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -12.87%E -3.43%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-21 18:50
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.45%EV -9.87%E -6.37%K -17.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -6.92%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -16.36%E -4.54%K -6.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-21 18:50
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.66%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.42%EV -8.78%E -1.79%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.92%EV -3.58%E -0.862%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 18:55
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.66%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.42%EV -8.78%E -1.79%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.92%EV -3.58%E -0.862%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 18:55
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -8.71%E -5.55%K -15.27%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -8.78%E -1.79%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -9.39%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-21 18:35
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -4.05%E -2.46%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -10.64%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -2.42%E -0.575%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 17:00
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -10.64%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -2.42%E -0.575%K -0.755%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-21 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -10.64%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -2.42%E -0.575%K -0.755%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 18:30
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -10.64%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -9.39%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-21 18:49
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.64%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -11.71%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.64%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -11.71%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.64%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -11.71%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 58.23%EV -16.27%E -11.30%K -36.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.47%EV -10.64%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.30%EV -19.84%E -5.75%K -8.10%G +0.000%19.3%2026-02-21 18:50
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -11.57%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-21 18:29
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -8.71%E -5.55%K -15.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -11.57%E -2.44%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -11.71%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-21 18:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.91%EV -9.29%E -5.95%K -16.58%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.22%EV -12.50%E -2.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.87%EV -8.22%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-21 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -11.03%E -7.21%K -20.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -12.50%E -2.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.70%EV -8.69%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-21 18:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.99%EV -12.78%E -8.52%K -25.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.51%EV -12.50%E -2.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.51%EV -14.03%E -3.79%K -5.20%G +0.000%15.0%2026-02-21 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.84%EV -8.12%E -5.14%K -14.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -14.37%E -3.12%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.29%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-21 12:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 55.87%EV -11.03%E -7.21%K -20.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -16.23%E -3.61%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.14%EV -21.00%E -6.18%K -8.75%G +0.000%17.0%2026-02-21 02:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.04%EV -10.45%E -6.79%K -19.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.43%EV -19.95%E -4.64%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.53%EV -9.39%E -2.41%K -3.24%G +0.000%13.8%2026-02-21 12:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.67I 59.88%NM 59.16%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-02-21 18:55
Matchbook1.67I 59.88%NM 59.16%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-02-21 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.30%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%1.6%2026-02-21 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.66I 60.24%NM 59.30%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.69%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%1.6%2026-02-21 18:50
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 58.81%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.23%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.96%1.8%2026-02-21 18:55