Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heracles Almelo v FC Utrecht

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heracles Almelo (Local)

Prediction 29.23%3.42fair odd
EV -0.631%
Edge -0.186%
Kelly -0.263%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.09%29.24%29.26%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.183.203.4034.48%31.44%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Utrecht (Visit)

Prediction 43.47%2.30fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -0.979%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.35%43.40%43.46%44.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.142.152.2552.63%46.74%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.31%3.66fair odd
EV -0.596%
Edge -0.164%
Kelly -0.226%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.40%27.36%27.28%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.393.403.6434.72%29.50%29.41%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heracles Almelo (Local): 29.23%; FC Utrecht (Visit): 43.47%; Draw: 27.31%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.64, with an expected value of -0.596%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.56%EV -0.631%E -0.186%K -0.263%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.75%EV -5.68%E -2.62%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.68%EV -0.596%E -0.164%K -0.226%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-06 18:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -0.631%E -0.186%K -0.263%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.25%E -2.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -0.631%E -0.186%K -0.263%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -5.25%E -2.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.09%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 17:01
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.02%EV -2.09%E -0.624%K -0.890%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.60%EV -3.07%E -1.38%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-06 18:41
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.02%EV -2.09%E -0.624%K -0.890%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.60%EV -3.07%E -1.38%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-06 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.85%EV -2.09%E -0.624%K -0.890%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.93%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-06 18:40
Pinnacle🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 29.03%EV -2.68%E -0.804%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.74%EV -3.94%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-06 18:46
Unibet (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.76%EV -3.55%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.73%EV -5.68%E -2.62%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-06 18:40
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.55%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.85%EV -6.12%E -2.83%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.55%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 18:45
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 18:35
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.77%EV -5.25%E -2.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.88%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 18:54
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 18:40
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 18:40
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 18:41
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 17:00
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.01%E -1.54%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.71%EV -6.98%E -3.26%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 18:41
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.25%E -2.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-06 18:10
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.25%E -2.41%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 18:11
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 16:15
BetUS🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -5.68%E -2.62%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 18:55
BetAnything🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -5.68%E -2.62%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 15:40
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 15:45
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 15:45
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-06 18:54
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 18:44
Everygame🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 17:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.77%EV -7.42%E -3.48%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.10%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-06 18:15
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -7.85%E -3.70%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-06 18:41
TABtouch🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -7.85%E -3.70%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-06 18:40
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 18:45
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -6.48%E -2.02%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.72%E -4.15%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -8.52%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-06 18:40
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.30%EV -7.94%E -2.52%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.42%EV -2.20%E -0.979%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-06 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -7.94%E -2.52%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -9.59%E -4.61%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-06 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -7.94%E -2.52%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -9.59%E -4.61%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-06 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 18:50
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 18:55
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 16:00
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 16:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 16:01
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.55%E -3.05%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 16:00
Fliff🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.72%E -4.15%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -8.52%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 18:15
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -10.90%E -5.32%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-06 17:15
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.72%E -4.15%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-06 18:46
Betclic (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.86%EV -9.40%E -3.03%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.28%EV -12.20%E -6.04%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.86%EV -9.06%E -2.72%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-06 18:33
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -10.86%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -4.38%E -1.99%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -10.86%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -8.72%E -4.15%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -5.79%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-06 18:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -10.86%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -10.90%E -5.32%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-06 18:35
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -12.32%E -4.11%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -8.72%E -4.15%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -12.61%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-06 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -12.32%E -4.11%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -13.07%E -6.53%K -13.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -21.35%E -7.41%K -11.36%G +0.000%18.1%2026-03-06 18:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.44%EV -13.78%E -4.67%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.42%EV -13.07%E -6.53%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.14%EV -12.61%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-06 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.04%EV -15.24%E -5.26%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.56%EV -13.07%E -6.53%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-06 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 28.63%EV -15.24%E -5.26%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 43.70%EV -17.42%E -9.17%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.67%EV -18.07%E -6.02%K -9.04%G +0.000%20.4%2026-03-06 18:46
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-03-06 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-03-06 18:40
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-03-06 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%1.0%2026-03-06 18:55
Smarkets3.40I 29.41%NM 28.88%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.45%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.66%1.8%2026-03-06 18:50