L’École des cotes

Heracles Almelo v Excelsior

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-20 19:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Heracles Almelo (Local)

Prévision 35.71%2.80cote équitable
EV -1.80%
Avantage -0.656%
Kelly -1.03%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.20%35.80%35.76%37.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.352.602.622.7542.55%38.41%38.17%36.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Excelsior (Visiteur)

Prévision 35.90%2.79cote équitable
EV +1.60%
Avantage +0.565%
Kelly +0.873%
Croissance +0.014%

avec la cote maximale 2.83

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.26%35.85%35.87%37.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.592.622.8343.48%38.56%38.17%35.34%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.39%3.52cote équitable
EV -0.627%
Avantage -0.179%
Kelly -0.251%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.06%28.35%28.37%29.29%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.903.263.303.5034.48%30.67%30.30%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.56I 39.06%NM 37.88%EV -8.59%E -3.36%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.26%EV +1.60%E +0.565%K +0.873%G +0.014%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.86%EV -1.20%E -0.343%K -0.482%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-20 18:55
LowVig.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 35.36%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.36%EV -1.27%E -0.463%K -0.728%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.29%EV -5.74%E -1.73%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-20 18:10
BetOnline.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 35.36%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.36%EV -1.27%E -0.463%K -0.728%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.29%EV -5.74%E -1.73%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-20 18:10
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63%EV -1.27%E -0.463%K -0.728%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 09:29
Pinnacle2.69I 37.17%NM 35.98%EV -3.95%E -1.47%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.72%EV -2.71%E -1.000%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.30%EV -2.90%E -0.848%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:40
Unibet (NL)2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:20
ATG (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:20
Svenska Spel2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:20
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 18:54
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-18 09:30
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-18 09:29
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.90%EV -12.52%E -5.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 09:29
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.59%E -1.33%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 18:19
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 18:45
NordicBet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 18:35
Betsson2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 18:35
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 18:54
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 13:05
Bovada2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -5.22%E -1.98%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 18:35
BetAnything2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -5.22%E -1.98%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 18:35
Unibet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -5.58%E -2.12%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 18:20
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.12%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 18:19
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.12%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 18:20
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.12%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 18:20
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 36.38%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.38%EV -5.94%E -2.27%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -0.627%E -0.179%K -0.251%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-20 18:39
BetUS2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -5.73%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -5.94%E -2.27%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 18:54
Marathon Bet2.64I 37.88%NM 35.37%EV -5.73%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -5.94%E -2.27%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.00%EV -8.58%E -2.66%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 18:54
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -5.94%E -2.27%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 18:55
BetMGM2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 18:00
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 18:00
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 13:29
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 18:20
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 18:35
Grosvenor2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -6.09%E -2.32%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 18:19
TABtouch2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -6.09%E -2.32%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 18:19
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-20 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -8.45%E -3.32%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-20 18:20
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.45%E -3.32%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:19
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.45%E -3.32%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:20
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -14.30%E -5.96%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 35.30%EV -9.17%E -3.63%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-20 18:34
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -3.59%E -1.33%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-20 18:55
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-20 13:25
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 18:00
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 17:59
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 18:00
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 18:00
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-20 16:04
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-20 18:54
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -13.84%E -5.77%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-20 13:25
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.73%EV -12.52%E -5.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -13.84%E -5.77%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-20 13:25
NetBet (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 35.22%EV -11.80%E -4.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.25%EV -13.84%E -5.77%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.53%EV -13.40%E -4.39%K -6.54%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-20 18:38
Parions Sport (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.49%EV -15.63%E -6.65%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-20 13:24
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 35.58%EV -16.09%E -6.85%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.58%EV -15.63%E -6.65%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.83%EV -17.66%E -6.09%K -9.30%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-20 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -17.43%E -7.58%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -14.82%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-20 18:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-20 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-20 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-20 18:50
Matchbook2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-20 18:50
Smarkets2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-03-20 18:55
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.94%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.94%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.1%2026-03-20 18:55