La escuela de los momios

Heracles Almelo v Excelsior

Inicio: 2026-03-20 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Heracles Almelo (Local)

Predicción 35.71%2.80momio equitativo
EV -1.80%
Ventaja -0.656%
Kelly -1.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.20%35.80%35.76%37.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.352.602.622.7542.55%38.41%38.17%36.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Excelsior (Visitante)

Predicción 35.90%2.79momio equitativo
EV +1.60%
Ventaja +0.565%
Kelly +0.873%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.26%35.85%35.87%37.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.592.622.8343.48%38.56%38.17%35.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.39%3.52momio equitativo
EV -0.627%
Ventaja -0.179%
Kelly -0.251%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.06%28.35%28.37%29.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.263.303.5034.48%30.67%30.30%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.56I 39.06%NM 37.88%EV -8.59%E -3.36%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.26%EV +1.60%E +0.565%K +0.873%G +0.014%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.86%EV -1.20%E -0.343%K -0.482%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-20 18:55
LowVig.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 35.36%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.36%EV -1.27%E -0.463%K -0.728%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.29%EV -5.74%E -1.73%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-20 18:10
BetOnline.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 35.36%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.36%EV -1.27%E -0.463%K -0.728%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.29%EV -5.74%E -1.73%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-20 18:10
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63%EV -1.27%E -0.463%K -0.728%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-18 09:29
Pinnacle2.69I 37.17%NM 35.98%EV -3.95%E -1.47%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.72%EV -2.71%E -1.000%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.30%EV -2.90%E -0.848%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:40
Unibet (NL)2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:20
ATG (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:20
Svenska Spel2.75I 36.36%NM 35.22%EV -1.80%E -0.656%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 18:20
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 18:54
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-18 09:30
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-18 09:29
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.90%EV -12.52%E -5.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -3.07%E -1.14%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-18 09:29
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.59%E -1.33%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.91%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 18:19
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 18:45
NordicBet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 18:35
Betsson2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.83%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 18:35
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 18:54
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.86%E -1.84%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 13:05
Bovada2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -5.22%E -1.98%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 18:35
BetAnything2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -5.22%E -1.98%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 18:35
Unibet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -5.58%E -2.12%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 18:20
LeoVegas2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.12%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 18:19
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.12%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 18:20
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%EV -5.58%E -2.12%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 18:20
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 36.38%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.38%EV -5.94%E -2.27%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -0.627%E -0.179%K -0.251%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-20 18:39
BetUS2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -5.73%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.89%EV -5.94%E -2.27%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 18:54
Marathon Bet2.64I 37.88%NM 35.37%EV -5.73%E -2.17%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -5.94%E -2.27%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.00%EV -8.58%E -2.66%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 18:54
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -5.94%E -2.27%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 18:55
BetMGM2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 18:00
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.47%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 18:00
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.58%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -4.89%E -1.46%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 13:29
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -5.38%E -2.03%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 18:20
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-20 18:35
Grosvenor2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -6.09%E -2.32%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 18:19
TABtouch2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -6.09%E -2.32%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.69%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 18:19
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.66%E -2.56%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-20 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -7.16%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -8.45%E -3.32%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-20 18:20
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.45%E -3.32%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:19
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.59%EV -8.45%E -3.32%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:20
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -14.30%E -5.96%K -10.22%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 35.30%EV -9.17%E -3.63%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-20 18:34
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -3.59%E -1.33%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-20 18:55
Winamax (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-20 13:25
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 18:00
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 17:59
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 18:00
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -6.45%E -2.46%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-20 18:00
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.14%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-20 16:04
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -10.25%E -4.10%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -11.98%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-20 18:54
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.72%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -13.84%E -5.77%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-20 13:25
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.73%EV -12.52%E -5.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -13.84%E -5.77%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-20 13:25
NetBet (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 35.22%EV -11.80%E -4.78%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.25%EV -13.84%E -5.77%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.53%EV -13.40%E -4.39%K -6.54%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-20 18:38
Parions Sport (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.55%EV -8.95%E -3.51%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.49%EV -15.63%E -6.65%K -11.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -10.56%E -3.35%K -4.91%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-20 13:24
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 35.58%EV -16.09%E -6.85%K -11.92%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.58%EV -15.63%E -6.65%K -11.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.83%EV -17.66%E -6.09%K -9.30%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-20 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 34.24%EV -10.73%E -4.29%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -17.43%E -7.58%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -14.82%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%16.8%2026-03-20 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-20 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-20 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-20 18:50
Matchbook2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43%0.5%2026-03-20 18:50
Smarkets2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-03-20 18:55
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 35.94%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.94%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.1%2026-03-20 18:55