Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen v Heracles Almelo

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 12:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prediction 64.80%1.54fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -5.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.85%64.93%64.70%68.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.421.431.5074.63%70.26%69.93%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Heracles Almelo (Visit)

Prediction 16.11%6.21fair odd
EV +12.78%
Edge +1.83%
Kelly +2.13%
Growth +0.272%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.91%16.01%16.26%18.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.016.157.0020.00%16.65%16.26%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.09%5.24fair odd
EV +3.07%
Edge +0.569%
Kelly +0.698%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.93%19.06%19.04%21.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.935.005.4025.00%20.30%20.00%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 64.80%; Heracles Almelo (Visit): 16.11%; Draw: 19.09%. For Heracles Almelo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.21. 25 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 68.07%EV -7.33%E -5.13%K -17.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.91%EV +12.78%E +1.83%K +2.13%G +0.272%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.03%EV +3.07%E +0.569%K +0.698%G +0.021%2.7%2026-04-05 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -7.33%E -5.13%K -17.06%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.35%EV +8.75%E +1.30%K +1.52%G +0.133%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93%EV +3.07%E +0.569%K +0.698%G +0.021%3.3%2026-04-05 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -7.33%E -5.13%K -17.06%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.35%EV +8.75%E +1.30%K +1.52%G +0.133%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93%EV +3.07%E +0.569%K +0.698%G +0.021%3.3%2026-04-05 12:14
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.76%EV -7.33%E -5.13%K -17.06%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.14%EV +8.75%E +1.30%K +1.52%G +0.133%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-05 12:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.68%EV -8.63%E -6.12%K -21.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.14%EV +8.75%E +1.30%K +1.52%G +0.133%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV +0.208%E +0.040%K +0.049%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 12:14
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.84%EV -9.28%E -6.63%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.07%EV +8.75%E +1.30%K +1.52%G +0.133%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV +0.208%E +0.040%K +0.049%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 12:14
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -6.69%E -4.64%K -15.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 12:23
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -9.28%E -6.63%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 11:55
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.67%EV -10.57%E -7.66%K -27.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -0.746%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 12:14
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.67%EV -10.57%E -7.66%K -27.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -0.746%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 12:15
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.67%EV -10.57%E -7.66%K -27.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -0.746%E -0.143%K -0.178%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 12:15
Bet Right🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.06%EV -8.63%E -6.12%K -21.05%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -9.34%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 12:14
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.44%EV -10.57%E -7.66%K -27.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -2.65%E -0.521%K -0.648%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 12:15
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.44%EV -10.57%E -7.66%K -27.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -2.65%E -0.521%K -0.648%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 12:15
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.28%E -6.63%K -23.20%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -9.34%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-05 12:00
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.26%EV -11.87%E -8.73%K -32.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV +4.73%E +0.727%K +0.859%G +0.041%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -6.47%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-05 12:19
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.83%EV -4.74%E -3.23%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +3.12%E +0.487%K +0.577%G +0.018%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV -10.29%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 12:24
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.83%EV -4.74%E -3.23%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV +3.12%E +0.487%K +0.577%G +0.018%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.28%EV -10.29%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 12:24
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -11.87%E -8.73%K -32.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV +3.12%E +0.487%K +0.577%G +0.018%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -2.65%E -0.521%K -0.648%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 12:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -11.87%E -8.73%K -32.97%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV +3.12%E +0.487%K +0.577%G +0.018%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -2.65%E -0.521%K -0.648%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 12:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.69%EV -13.17%E -9.83%K -38.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.17%EV +3.12%E +0.487%K +0.577%G +0.018%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.69%EV -13.17%E -9.83%K -38.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.17%EV +3.12%E +0.487%K +0.577%G +0.018%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 12:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.69%EV -13.17%E -9.83%K -38.73%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.17%EV +3.12%E +0.487%K +0.577%G +0.018%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 12:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.66%EV -7.98%E -5.62%K -19.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.92%EV +0.699%E +0.112%K +0.133%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -8.38%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-05 12:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.52%EV -7.98%E -5.62%K -19.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV +0.699%E +0.112%K +0.133%G +0.001%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -9.34%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 12:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.41%EV -4.09%E -2.77%K -8.53%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.61%EV -0.107%E -0.017%K -0.021%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%EV -2.65%E -0.521%K -0.648%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 12:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.41%EV -4.09%E -2.77%K -8.53%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.61%EV -0.107%E -0.017%K -0.021%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.98%EV -2.65%E -0.521%K -0.648%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-05 12:01
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.10%EV -4.09%E -2.77%K -8.53%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.67%EV -0.912%E -0.148%K -0.177%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 19.23%EV -4.37%E -0.873%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-05 12:15
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -6.04%E -4.16%K -13.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.33%E -0.555%K -0.666%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -14.11%E -3.13%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-05 12:24
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -11.87%E -8.73%K -32.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -3.33%E -0.555%K -0.666%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -14.11%E -3.13%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-05 12:00
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.28%EV -4.74%E -3.23%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -7.36%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -6.47%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 12:05
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.00%EV -6.69%E -4.64%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -7.36%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 12:14
BetAnything🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.47%EV -6.04%E -4.16%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -7.36%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.27%EV -7.43%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.75%EV -6.69%E -4.64%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -7.36%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -6.47%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 12:05
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -6.04%E -4.16%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.36%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -9.34%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 12:04
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.33%EV -9.28%E -6.63%K -23.20%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.66%EV -7.36%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -14.11%E -3.13%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-05 12:19
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.77%EV -2.80%E -1.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.66I 17.67%NM 17.17%EV -8.81%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 18.06%EV +2.69%E +0.500%K +0.614%G +0.017%2.9%2026-04-05 12:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.00%EV -4.74%E -3.23%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -9.77%E -1.75%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.20%EV -6.47%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 12:24
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -2.80%E -1.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 12:25
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -2.80%E -1.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.34%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 12:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -4.09%E -2.77%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 12:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -4.09%E -2.77%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -4.56%E -0.913%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 12:20
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.74%EV -6.04%E -4.16%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -9.34%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 12:04
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.03%EV -6.69%E -4.64%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -8.38%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 12:01
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.03%EV -6.69%E -4.64%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -8.38%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 12:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.03%EV -6.69%E -4.64%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -8.38%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.03%EV -6.69%E -4.64%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.21%EV -8.38%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 12:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.00%EV -11.87%E -8.73%K -32.97%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.58%EV -11.38%E -2.07%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.42%EV -23.65%E -5.91%K -7.88%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-05 12:01
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.68%EV -11.87%E -8.73%K -32.97%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.60%EV -14.61%E -2.76%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.72%EV -10.29%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-05 12:19
BetUS🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.95%EV -4.09%E -2.77%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -15.41%E -2.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV +0.208%E +0.040%K +0.049%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-05 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.08%EV -9.93%E -7.14%K -25.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -15.41%E -2.94%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.95%EV -10.29%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-05 12:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.68%EV -9.28%E -6.63%K -23.20%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.15%EV -16.22%E -3.12%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.17%EV -11.24%E -2.42%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-05 12:24
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.85%EV -6.69%E -4.64%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -19.44%E -3.89%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.05%EV -9.34%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-05 12:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.13%EV -7.33%E -5.13%K -17.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -19.44%E -3.89%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -8.38%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-05 12:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.05%EV -7.98%E -5.62%K -19.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -19.44%E -3.89%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.05%EV -10.29%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-05 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.35%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-04-05 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.35%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-04-05 12:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 67.35%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-04-05 12:20
Matchbook1.48I 67.57%NM 67.35%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.84%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-04-05 12:15
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 67.35%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.84%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.81%1.0%2026-04-05 12:25
Smarkets1.47I 68.03%NM 66.99%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.07%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.94%1.5%2026-04-05 12:25