Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen v FC Zwolle

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 19:00 UTC

Final: Heerenveen 0–2 FC Zwolle

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prediction 60.20%1.66fair odd
EV -3.68%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -6.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.77%60.20%60.20%61.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.551.6067.57%64.49%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Zwolle (Visit)

Prediction 18.91%5.29fair odd
EV -0.706%
Edge -0.135%
Kelly -0.166%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.78%18.96%18.90%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.894.935.2522.73%20.46%20.30%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.88%4.79fair odd
EV -0.797%
Edge -0.168%
Kelly -0.212%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.87%20.84%20.90%21.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.444.504.7523.81%22.52%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 60.20%; FC Zwolle (Visit): 18.91%; Draw: 20.88%. For FC Zwolle (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.25, with an expected value of -0.706%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.68%EV -3.68%E -2.30%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.67%EV -1.65%E -0.318%K -0.393%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.66%EV -1.84%E -0.392%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-22 15:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.45%EV -3.68%E -2.30%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.97%EV -3.54%E -0.695%K -0.864%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.58%EV -1.84%E -0.392%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-22 15:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.45%EV -3.68%E -2.30%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.97%EV -3.54%E -0.695%K -0.864%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.58%EV -1.84%E -0.392%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-22 15:04
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.08%EV -3.68%E -2.30%K -6.13%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.70%EV -2.79%E -0.542%K -0.673%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.22%EV -5.39%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-22 15:15
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.21%EV -3.68%E -2.30%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 12:44
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.67%EV -4.28%E -2.69%K -7.25%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.80%EV -2.98%E -0.580%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.52%EV -1.84%E -0.392%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-22 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.37%EV -4.88%E -3.09%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.67%EV -3.35%E -0.656%K -0.816%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.96%EV -4.97%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-19 04:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.37%EV -4.88%E -3.09%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.67%EV -3.35%E -0.656%K -0.816%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.96%EV -4.97%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-19 04:19
BetAnything🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.37%EV -4.88%E -3.09%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.67%EV -3.35%E -0.656%K -0.816%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.96%EV -4.97%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-19 04:19
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.14%EV -4.88%E -3.09%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -6.38%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -3.93%E -0.854%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 14:59
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.14%EV -4.88%E -3.09%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -6.38%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -3.93%E -0.854%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 14:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.98%EV -4.88%E -3.09%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-20 10:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.98%EV -4.88%E -3.09%K -8.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 12:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.75%EV -4.88%E -3.09%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.27%EV -7.33%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 12:55
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.81%EV -5.48%E -3.49%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.10%EV -0.797%E -0.168%K -0.212%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-20 13:30
BetUS🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.36%EV -5.48%E -3.49%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.58%EV -3.54%E -0.695%K -0.864%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.06%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 15:14
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -5.48%E -3.49%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 11:14
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -5.48%E -3.49%K -9.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 15:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.67%EV -5.48%E -3.49%K -9.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 12:45
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.67%EV -5.48%E -3.49%K -9.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 12:40
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.83%EV -6.08%E -3.90%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -0.706%E -0.135%K -0.166%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-22 11:55
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.31%EV -6.08%E -3.90%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.01%EV -6.38%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.68%EV -4.97%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 15:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.54%EV -6.08%E -3.90%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 15:04
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.54%EV -6.08%E -3.90%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 15:04
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.54%EV -6.08%E -3.90%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 15:04
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.28%EV -6.08%E -3.90%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -9.15%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 15:04
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.44%EV -6.69%E -4.31%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 14:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.16%EV -6.69%E -4.31%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 15:08
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.85%EV -6.69%E -4.31%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-20 13:30
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.81%EV -6.69%E -4.31%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.12%EV -8.27%E -1.71%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 14:59
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.10%EV -6.69%E -4.31%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 14:49
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.77%EV -6.69%E -4.31%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -11.24%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 15:04
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.87%EV -7.29%E -4.73%K -13.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -3.93%E -0.854%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-20 10:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.34%EV -7.29%E -4.73%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.77%EV -6.38%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -7.06%E -1.59%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 15:03
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.73%EV -7.29%E -4.73%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-20 13:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.09%EV -7.29%E -4.73%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.68%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 12:49
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.92%EV -7.29%E -4.73%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.35%EV -11.24%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 15:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.92%EV -7.29%E -4.73%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.35%EV -11.24%E -2.64%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 15:05
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.01%EV -7.89%E -5.16%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -0.706%E -0.135%K -0.166%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 15:20
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.01%EV -7.89%E -5.16%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -0.706%E -0.135%K -0.166%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -8.11%E -1.84%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 15:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.75%EV -7.89%E -5.16%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-21 19:04
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -7.89%E -5.16%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-20 10:59
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -7.89%E -5.16%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 14:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -7.89%E -5.16%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 14:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -7.89%E -5.16%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 14:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.45%EV -8.49%E -5.59%K -16.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -1.84%E -0.392%K -0.498%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.09%EV -8.49%E -5.59%K -16.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.53%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 15:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.09%EV -8.49%E -5.59%K -16.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.53%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-22 15:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.86%EV -8.49%E -5.59%K -16.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.33%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.94%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -10.19%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 12:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.18%EV -9.09%E -6.02%K -17.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.93%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.89%EV -9.15%E -2.10%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 12:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.25%EV -9.09%E -6.02%K -17.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 15:04
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.72%EV -9.70%E -6.46%K -19.39%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.15%EV -3.54%E -0.695%K -0.864%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -3.93%E -0.854%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-20 19:03
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.64%EV -9.70%E -6.46%K -19.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -6.02%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-20 10:58
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.53%EV -9.70%E -6.46%K -19.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -9.57%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-22 10:45
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -9.70%E -6.46%K -19.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-20 10:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.22%EV -10.90%E -7.37%K -22.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.57%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -12.28%E -2.92%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-22 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 62.05%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.97%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.98%0.1%2026-08-22 15:05
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 61.62%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%0.8%2026-08-22 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.62%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%0.8%2026-08-22 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.62%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%0.8%2026-08-22 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.62%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%0.8%2026-08-22 15:10
Matchbook1.61I 62.11%NM 61.62%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%0.8%2026-08-22 15:15