Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.15
assuming max odds 2.18
assuming max odds 4.20
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Heerenveen (Local): 31.14%; Ajax (Visit): 45.56%; Draw: 23.30%. For Ajax (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.18, with an expected value of -0.685%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.50%EV -1.90%E -0.603%K -0.884%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.19%EV -5.24%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.32%EV -4.00%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 08:16 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.64%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.00%EV -0.685%E -0.314%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%EV -2.14%E -0.510%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.64%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.00%EV -0.685%E -0.314%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%EV -2.14%E -0.510%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.63%EV -3.87%E -1.84%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.31%EV -3.77%E -0.913%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-17 08:16 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 06:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -7.06%E -3.46%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -7.06%E -3.46%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.49%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.19%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 08:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.87%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.99%EV -1.60%E -0.739%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.14%EV -2.14%E -0.510%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -3.42%E -1.61%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -3.42%E -1.61%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.92%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-17 06:46 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.04%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 06:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-17 06:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.72%EV -5.95%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.90%EV -5.64%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 06:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.60%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.09%EV -2.05%E -0.954%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 02:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 08:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.17%EV -5.64%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-17 08:16 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.17%EV -5.64%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.17%EV -5.64%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 08:16 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 08:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.32%EV -8.13%E -2.76%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.98%EV -3.42%E -1.61%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -2.14%E -0.510%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-17 02:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -8.13%E -2.76%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -2.05%E -0.954%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-17 02:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.75%EV -8.13%E -2.76%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.28%EV -10.71%E -5.46%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-17 06:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -2.05%E -0.954%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-17 02:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 02:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 02:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 23:26 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.43%EV -5.24%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 23:26 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 08:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.77%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.30%EV -5.24%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -10.30%E -2.67%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.67%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.93%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-17 06:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-17 08:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-17 08:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-17 08:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-17 08:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-17 08:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.01%EV -12.07%E -6.26%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-17 08:16 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -10.31%E -3.58%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 02:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -10.31%E -3.58%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.51%EV -11.16%E -5.72%K -11.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-17 08:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.68%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-17 02:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.15%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.84%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.27%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-16 19:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.84%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.27%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-16 19:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.67%EV -9.80%E -4.95%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-17 06:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.25%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-16 23:26 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.25%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.25%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-16 23:26 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.25%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.17%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.23%EV -12.99%E -6.80%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.60%EV -23.11%E -7.00%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 18.4% | 2026-05-17 08:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -14.36%E -5.22%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.10%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.84%EV -13.79%E -3.73%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-16 23:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.61%EV -14.36%E -5.22%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.51%EV -12.99%E -6.80%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.88%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-05-17 08:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.83% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09% | 0.7% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.83% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09% | 0.7% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.65% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.59% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76% | 1.0% | 2026-05-17 06:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.06% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-05-17 08:20 |