La escuela de los momios

Heerenveen v Ajax

Inicio: 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Final: Heerenveen 0–0 Ajax

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Heerenveen (Local)

Predicción 31.14%3.21momio equitativo
EV -1.90%
Ventaja -0.603%
Kelly -0.884%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.17%31.23%31.09%32.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.952.903.1536.36%33.95%34.48%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Ajax (Visitante)

Predicción 45.56%2.20momio equitativo
EV -0.685%
Ventaja -0.314%
Kelly -0.581%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.62%45.42%45.60%46.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.052.052.1852.36%48.68%48.78%45.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.30%4.29momio equitativo
EV -2.14%
Ventaja -0.510%
Kelly -0.669%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.40%23.35%23.31%25.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.943.954.2030.30%25.39%25.32%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.15I 31.75%NM 30.50%EV -1.90%E -0.603%K -0.884%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.19%EV -5.24%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.32%EV -4.00%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 08:16
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 31.64%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.00%EV -0.685%E -0.314%K -0.581%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%EV -2.14%E -0.510%K -0.669%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-16 23:25
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.64%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.00%EV -0.685%E -0.314%K -0.581%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.36%EV -2.14%E -0.510%K -0.669%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-16 23:25
Pinnacle3.10I 32.26%NM 31.06%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.63%EV -3.87%E -1.84%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.31%EV -3.77%E -0.913%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-17 08:16
Fanatics3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 06:50
LowVig.ag3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -7.06%E -3.46%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:00
BetOnline.ag3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%EV -7.06%E -3.46%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:00
Marathon Bet3.06I 32.68%NM 30.49%EV -4.70%E -1.54%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.19%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:15
Unibet (NL)3.05I 32.79%NM 31.87%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.99%EV -1.60%E -0.739%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.14%EV -2.14%E -0.510%K -0.669%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-16 23:25
Betsson3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -3.42%E -1.61%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 08:00
NordicBet3.05I 32.79%NM 31.14%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -3.42%E -1.61%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 08:00
Codere (IT)3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.92%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 06:46
DraftKings3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.04%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 06:40
Unibet (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.01%E -1.64%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 06:45
Betclic (FR)3.02I 33.11%NM 30.72%EV -5.95%E -1.97%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.90%EV -5.64%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 06:44
Coral3.00I 33.33%NM 31.60%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.09%EV -2.05%E -0.954%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 02:15
Bet Victor3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.80%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:19
Bovada3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.17%EV -5.64%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:16
BetUS3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.17%EV -5.64%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:20
BetAnything3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.55%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.17%EV -5.64%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 08:20
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 08:05
Tipico (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 08:16
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 08:05
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.57%E -2.19%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 08:10
Coolbet2.95I 33.90%NM 32.32%EV -8.13%E -2.76%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.98%EV -3.42%E -1.61%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%EV -2.14%E -0.510%K -0.669%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-17 02:14
BetMGM2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -8.13%E -2.76%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -2.05%E -0.954%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 02:15
Unibet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.75%EV -8.13%E -2.76%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.28%EV -10.71%E -5.46%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.97%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-17 06:45
Ladbrokes (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -2.05%E -0.954%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 02:10
Betr (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 02:15
PointsBet (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 02:15
Casumo2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 23:25
Unibet (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 23:26
betPARX2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -4.33%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 23:25
Unibet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.87%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.43%EV -5.24%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 23:26
Betway2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 08:10
PlayUp2.90I 34.48%NM 31.77%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.30%EV -5.24%E -2.52%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -10.30%E -2.67%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 08:00
Winamax (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.67%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.93%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 06:45
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:10
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:10
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:10
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-17 08:10
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-17 08:05
NetBet (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62%EV -9.69%E -3.34%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.01%EV -12.07%E -6.26%K -12.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 08:16
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -10.31%E -3.58%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-17 02:15
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -10.31%E -3.58%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.51%EV -11.16%E -5.72%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-17 08:10
Bet Right2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.68%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-17 02:15
BetRivers2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.15%EV -6.15%E -2.99%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.93%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 23:25
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 31.84%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.27%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 19:35
Grosvenor2.85I 35.09%NM 31.84%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.27%EV -6.61%E -3.22%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-16 19:35
Winamax (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%EV -11.24%E -3.94%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.67%EV -9.80%E -4.95%K -10.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 06:45
LeoVegas2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.25%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 23:26
LiveScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.25%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 23:25
Virgin Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.25%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 23:26
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.25%EV -7.97%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -12.63%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 23:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.17%EV -12.80%E -4.57%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.23%EV -12.99%E -6.80%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.60%EV -23.11%E -7.00%K -10.05%G +0.000%18.4%2026-05-17 08:10
PMU (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -14.36%E -5.22%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.10%EV -8.89%E -4.44%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.84%EV -13.79%E -3.73%K -5.11%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-16 23:25
BoyleSports2.75I 36.36%NM 31.61%EV -14.36%E -5.22%K -8.20%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.51%EV -12.99%E -6.80%K -14.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.88%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-17 08:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.83%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09%0.7%2026-05-17 08:20
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.83%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.09%0.7%2026-05-17 08:20
Kalshi3.23I 30.96%NM 30.65%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.59%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.76%1.0%2026-05-17 06:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.06%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.06%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-05-17 08:20
Smarkets3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.06%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-05-17 08:20