Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Go Ahead Eagles v AZ Alkmaar

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 16:45 UTC

Final: Go Ahead Eagles 0–0 AZ Alkmaar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Go Ahead Eagles (Local)

Prediction 43.85%2.28fair odd
EV -0.030%
Edge -0.013%
Kelly -0.023%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.40%43.72%43.88%44.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.2850.00%46.60%46.51%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AZ Alkmaar (Visit)

Prediction 31.83%3.14fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -0.957%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.07%31.84%31.83%33.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.922.923.0537.04%34.28%34.25%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.32%4.11fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.552%
Kelly -0.735%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.45%24.44%24.29%26.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.763.804.0230.77%26.62%26.32%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Go Ahead Eagles (Local): 43.85%; AZ Alkmaar (Visit): 31.83%; Draw: 24.32%. For Go Ahead Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.281. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.280, with an expected value of -0.030%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.74%EV -0.030%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95%EV -2.92%E -0.957%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.31%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-23 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.60%EV -0.030%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.84%EV -2.92%E -0.957%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.56%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-23 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.60%EV -0.030%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.84%EV -2.92%E -0.957%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.56%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-23 16:24
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.51%EV -0.030%E -0.013%K -0.023%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.19%EV -7.06%E -2.42%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.29%EV -2.95%E -0.739%K -0.986%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 16:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.43%EV -1.78%E -0.796%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.89%EV -5.15%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 16:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.43%EV -1.78%E -0.796%K -1.44%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.89%EV -5.15%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.68%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.40%EV -2.22%E -0.996%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 16:24
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.99%EV -3.54%E -1.61%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.94%EV -3.56%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.07%EV -2.22%E -0.552%K -0.735%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-23 16:30
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -3.54%E -1.61%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 16:20
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -3.54%E -1.61%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 16:24
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -3.54%E -1.61%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -11.22%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 16:40
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -3.54%E -1.61%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -11.22%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 16:40
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.65%EV -4.41%E -2.03%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -3.92%E -0.993%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 16:39
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.65%EV -4.41%E -2.03%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -3.92%E -0.993%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 16:39
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.57%EV -4.41%E -2.03%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.43%EV -11.22%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 16:39
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.57%EV -4.41%E -2.03%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.43%EV -11.22%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 16:25
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.57%EV -4.41%E -2.03%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.43%EV -11.22%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-23 16:25
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.90%EV -4.85%E -2.24%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.902%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 16:30
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -4.51%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.70%E -0.676%K -0.902%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 16:38
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.09%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.60%EV -4.51%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 16:24
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.09%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.60%EV -4.51%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 16:39
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 16:29
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 16:40
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 16:39
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -6.10%E -2.07%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -4.51%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 16:19
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -4.51%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 16:19
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -4.51%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 16:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.62%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.34%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.14%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 16:30
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.48%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 16:30
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41%EV -9.29%E -3.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -8.79%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 16:39
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.33%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 16:35
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.33%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.33%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.33%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.33%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 16:24
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.33%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 16:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.07%EV -6.17%E -2.88%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.44%EV -4.51%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 16:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.60%EV -6.17%E -2.88%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.84%EV -6.74%E -2.30%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 16:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.49%EV -6.17%E -2.88%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -9.29%E -3.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -13.65%E -3.85%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.49%EV -6.17%E -2.88%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -9.29%E -3.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -13.65%E -3.85%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 16:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.49%EV -6.17%E -2.88%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -9.29%E -3.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -13.65%E -3.85%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 16:25
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.53%EV -7.92%E -3.77%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -4.51%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 16:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -7.92%E -3.77%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -4.51%E -1.50%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 16:24
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -7.92%E -3.77%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 16:30
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -7.92%E -3.77%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.57%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 16:34
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.68%EV -7.92%E -3.77%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.33%E -2.89%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -8.79%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -10.11%E -4.93%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.94%EV -9.29%E -3.26%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV -6.35%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 16:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.23%EV -10.11%E -4.93%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.27%EV -7.69%E -2.65%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.51%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 16:25
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.11%E -4.93%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.02%EV -10.88%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -10.00%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 16:29
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -10.11%E -4.93%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -10.88%E -3.88%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-23 16:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.85%EV -10.99%E -5.41%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.07%EV -6.74%E -2.30%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.08%EV -8.06%E -2.13%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 16:24
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.97%EV -12.31%E -6.15%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.57%EV -14.06%E -5.21%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.45%EV -8.79%E -2.34%K -3.19%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-23 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.95%EV -12.31%E -6.15%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.96%EV -12.47%E -4.53%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.08%EV -11.22%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 16:24
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.91%EV -12.31%E -6.15%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.70%EV -11.83%E -4.27%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -12.43%E -3.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-23 16:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.44%EV -12.31%E -6.15%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.44%EV -14.06%E -5.21%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.12%EV -20.95%E -6.45%K -9.31%G +0.000%17.8%2026-04-23 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.76%0.2%2026-04-23 16:40
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.68%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.76%0.2%2026-04-23 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.56%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%0.6%2026-04-23 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.30%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-04-23 16:40
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.52%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-04-23 16:40
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 43.30%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.97%4.0%2026-04-23 16:25